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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 6, 2019 12:52:33 GMT -6
Very unlikely the FV3 comes to fruitiion given it is all by itself. No other models show the low digging like that unfortunately.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 6, 2019 12:53:00 GMT -6
The signal for a storm Tuesday-Thursday is pretty high IMO.
Camps for a cutter.
GFS
EURO
ICON
CMC
Camps for a dry slotter
GEFS
Camps for a thumper
FV3
EPS
Not a bad place to be right now I guess
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 6, 2019 12:58:43 GMT -6
Sunday evening actually holds quite a bit of promise. It’s what I would call an I70 screamer. Shows the classic 2-4”, 3-5” look for the I70 corridor according to the GFS.
More importantly, all globals appear to squash the SE ridge after the passage of the Sunday storm.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 6, 2019 13:24:50 GMT -6
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 6, 2019 13:25:33 GMT -6
Friend reported thunder sleet between Steedman and Fulton MO about half hour ago
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 6, 2019 13:30:23 GMT -6
Distant rumbling of thunder here in Mascoutah
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 6, 2019 13:56:30 GMT -6
Ice storm warning for kc. Looks like the are west of Columbia is gonna get a crippler
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Post by landscaper on Feb 6, 2019 14:06:39 GMT -6
Yeah, we dodged another bullet ...I would rather see some freezing rain and sleet then all this rain
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 6, 2019 14:08:40 GMT -6
Honestly I will take this rain instead of ice. Apparently we have tree damage at our lake house in Morgan county. North side of lake of the ozarks near rocky mounts has lots of ice. So its still impacting me unfortunately
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 6, 2019 14:12:32 GMT -6
Classic freezing rain sounding near KC tonight. With temps in the mid 20s accretion ill be very efficient Ill stick with rain along with my power and heat thank you  |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 6, 2019 14:17:52 GMT -6
The models did terrible with the temps the last two days , we were supposed to be in the 50’s the last two days , I’ve been between 33-35 for a long time
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Post by landscaper on Feb 6, 2019 14:19:07 GMT -6
I don’t want a big storm, just one of those that coats everything with a light coating.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 6, 2019 14:49:35 GMT -6
The models being way too warm today may be something to keep in mind for Sunday. That certainly doesn't look like a huge system but enough to cause some issues if temps cooperate, and they have been trending colder.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 6, 2019 14:54:29 GMT -6
Sunday evening actually holds quite a bit of promise. It’s what I would call an I70 screamer. Shows the classic 2-4”, 3-5” look for the I70 corridor according to the GFS. More importantly, all globals appear to squash the SE ridge after the passage of the Sunday storm. If the models are squasing the ridge, then i will look for my varsity models euro and gfs to trend south by tonight. The other models can follow along for confirmation. Tbh, i did not see any real squashing of the ridge at 12 though. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 6, 2019 14:56:04 GMT -6
The models did terrible with the temps the last two days , we were supposed to be in the 50’s the last two days , I’ve been between 33-35 for a long time I have been leaning on NAM, NAM3km and HRRR the past two days. I only forecast upper 40s...well below the globals (and other public forecasts in town) and I will still be too warm...at least through 6pm. Winds are quickly turning to the south and I expect a steady climb through midnight...and probably beyond. |
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 6, 2019 15:07:27 GMT -6
May have to watch out for an elevated freezing rain supercell there in western MO. Wouldn't that be interesting if someone got freezing rain with some pea size hail. I wouldn't rule out an elevated supercell as for north as I-70 in our area either with the potential for some small hail. Lots of shear and helicity with plenty of elevated CAPE above a razor thin boundary layer.
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Post by unclesam6 on Feb 6, 2019 15:07:38 GMT -6
Classic freezing rain sounding near KC tonight. With temps in the mid 20s accretion ill be very efficient Ill stick with rain along with my power and heat thank you 600 j/kg of elevated cape. Jesus. It's going to pour. Looks like a November 30/Dec 1 2006 type-impact Crazy |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 6, 2019 15:32:58 GMT -6
May have to watch out for an elevated freezing rain supercell there in western MO. Wouldn't that be interesting if someone got freezing rain with some pea size hail. I wouldn't rule out an elevated supercell as for north as I-70 in our area either with the potential for some small hail. Lots of shear and helicity with plenty of elevated CAPE above a razor thin boundary layer. I remember a few years back there were several thunderstorms with severe t-storm warnings from OK through SW MO that were producing quarter size hail and sleet at the same time with temps in the low 20's. I had thundersleet that night too. Kinda cool. |
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Post by goutkvols KCMO on Feb 6, 2019 15:36:47 GMT -6
Yeah, we dodged another bullet ...I would rather see some freezing rain and sleet then all this rain I'd be happy to trade you ZR for plain ole rain |
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Post by goutkvols KCMO on Feb 6, 2019 15:40:15 GMT -6
KC NWS forecast discussion is saying the best area for ice is from between US 50 to US 63
That said, cooler temperatures, especially
across the south and east, have led to an increase in ice totals
for locations south of Route 50 and east of Route 63.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 6, 2019 16:00:55 GMT -6
Sunday looks good on the 18z gfs.
Nice
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 6, 2019 16:01:49 GMT -6
Bored... looks like the surface low will move just south of STL  |
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Post by rb1108 on Feb 6, 2019 16:10:37 GMT -6
Of course the winter weather headlines screech to a halt right at the start of the viewing area....typical  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 6, 2019 16:17:04 GMT -6
Bored... looks like the surface low will move just south of STL Without looking at much other than that...looks like we could see a dryline develop tomorrow. |
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WeatherOrNot
Weather Weenie
Hull, IL (NW corner Pike Co., IL)
Posts: 36
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Post by WeatherOrNot on Feb 6, 2019 16:20:56 GMT -6
Just got home from an unexpected late night/early morning trip to Urbana, IL - my college kid had a food allergy reaction & had to be treated at ER... he's fine now. I am especially thankful for this forum and the NWS products during times like this; I knew what to expect on the road.
Coming home this afternoon along I-72, saw heavy rain with lightning from Jacksonville to Pittsfield, IL. Started seeing glazing on grasses and cedars along roadway west of Pittsfield. Here at home (Hull, IL) it's 31*. Looks like we had hail, it's piled up on deck a little, vegetation is glazing over, icicles forming on deck, basketball goal, etc. Deck and truck just starting to glaze over. Still some puddles (and snow from Jan 12th in low areas) in yard.
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 6, 2019 16:28:04 GMT -6
Bored... looks like the surface low will move just south of STL Without looking at much other than that...looks like we could see a dryline develop tomorrow. Particularly just south of us... pretty much where SPC is highlighted. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 6, 2019 17:52:41 GMT -6
EPO looks good for the next 10+ days  |
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Post by REB on Feb 6, 2019 18:23:05 GMT -6
Classic freezing rain sounding near KC tonight. With temps in the mid 20s accretion ill be very efficient Ill stick with rain along with my power and heat thank you 600 j/kg of elevated cape. Jesus. It's going to pour. Looks like a November 30/Dec 1 2006 type-impact Crazy I wouldn't wish a repeat of that storm on anyone. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 6, 2019 18:31:26 GMT -6
12z euro and ukmet are worlds apart.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 6, 2019 18:59:26 GMT -6
Im sure i am reading cold but i am showing 32.6 right now
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