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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 15, 2019 22:40:27 GMT -6
So tonight we are gunna keep the GEM, Ukie, NAM, and Euro and throw out the ICON, GFS, and FV3. I can live with that tonight and also like the overall consensus that it looks like atleast some of us will get another snow this weekend. The NAM needs to be tossed. I’ll be ok with that. In all honesty I wish some other folks who only got a few inches would be the big players this time. Sharing is caring lol only this time though because I’ve had 5 days of fun in this and have plenty for atleast another day or two. |
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 15, 2019 22:43:02 GMT -6
WorldSeries, you live in Chicago now and you can't find a better blog up there in the big and "better" Windy City than Chris' STL blog? I think maybe a bill for at least $20/month should cover it, yes? Unless we start seeing trends swing in your favor of course. That way we can have some money in the jar for that lucky jackpot winner (for whatever that might be) with the money collected.  It becomes $40/month if you decide to fair weather us here and become a cubbies fan too! You would actually be shocked about how amazing this forum is compared to the rest of the stuff available. This is a juggernaut. I know some are just joking, but if it really upsets people I'll see myself out. P.S. Got my Goldschmidt Jersey for my birthday, so I ride the subway in style. Man, this board would never be the same without you. You know what I’m saying is all in good fun I hope. This board welcomes all especially those like you who have been around forever! It’s great you’re still here with us!! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 22:46:01 GMT -6
00z ukmet is still south.
Euro should be interesting, but I'm not staying up for it. Last week's storm was so much easier to track.
Here is to clarity tomorrow.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 22:46:37 GMT -6
The NAM needs to be tossed. I’ll be ok with that. In all honesty I wish some other folks who only got a few inches would be the big players this time. Sharing is caring lol only this time though because I’ve had 5 days of fun in this and have plenty for atleast another day or two. Lol define a few. That would be a hit for the far far Southern and SE counties. The reality though is that conceptually there's a pretty big spread of realistic possibilities with this as it stands. I think in terms of track it's more likely we end up with rain too cold with a little light snow. Versus say us getting rain and then dry slide and then heavy snow for the far northern part of the metro in Chicago that's not going to happen. that's not conceptually sound giving what we know about the northern branch of the jet stream. Where is on the flip side this could end up a storm for the southern metro area but honestly I think it's most likely that it's going to be coldrain with probably a mix on the northern half of my metro over to snow with a moderate level accumulation event for 2/3 of the metro. I'm not saying that because it bias I'm saying that because we really are in a pretty good spot here but we'll see. |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 15, 2019 22:47:13 GMT -6
Left STL at 8pm and just got back to Osage Beach, no sign of drizzle and barely any fog. What time we expecting the freezing drizzle?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 22:48:28 GMT -6
00z ukmet is still south. Euro should be interesting, but I'm not staying up for it. Last week's storm was so much easier to track. Here is to clarity tomorrow. Honestly I don't see this storm being a Chicago storm directly. Not with the confluence modeled so strong. But you will require a miracle to end up with less snowfall than us by April |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 22:55:09 GMT -6
The ukmet being that far South is great.
It's probably to far South for us.
But man its on the right side of the tracks.
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 15, 2019 22:57:06 GMT -6
You would actually be shocked about how amazing this forum is compared to the rest of the stuff available. This is a juggernaut. I know some are just joking, but if it really upsets people I'll see myself out. P.S. Got my Goldschmidt Jersey for my birthday, so I ride the subway in style. Man, this board would never be the same without you. You know what I’m saying is all in good fun I hope. This board welcomes all especially those like you who have been around forever! It’s great you’re still here with us!! It does go without saying how awesome this forum/board truly is! A community of brilliant weather minds and overall wonderful people. It's really cool to have a virtual hangout of local community members who have a fondness of the weather but also a care for each other. I know I don't have a track record for posting a lot but I've been a member for quite some time. And I have to say as well, this is one of the best weather forums out there bar none. I'm lucky to be a part of it. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 15, 2019 23:02:42 GMT -6
00z ukmet is still south. Euro should be interesting, but I'm not staying up for it. Last week's storm was so much easier to track. Here is to clarity tomorrow. Honestly I don't see this storm being a Chicago storm directly. Not with the confluence modeled so strong. But you will require a miracle to end up with less snowfall than us by April I think Brtn is in an ideal spot for this one. I enjoy tracking storms and have a lot of family in St. Louis so it's fun. My parents measured 13 inches at the house over the weekend in St. Charles. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 15, 2019 23:13:43 GMT -6
Steady as she goes. Here we are extrapolating a model that is truly unreliable at its end run, dissecting the Ukie, the ICON, and any other guidance that we can get our hands on.
Give this thing some time to breath. It’s got arctic air, a healthy gulf connection, healthy Pwats, and at least 2 systems prior to it to deal with.
Models will continue to give fits until Thursday afternoon/evening. It’ll be sampled well, have the current inputs (snowcover, etc.) ingested, and the “noise” prior to will be gone. North, south, east, west the track will wobble. 60 miles here, 100 miles there. All signs still point to a winter storm bisecting the area, offering all types of precipitation. Rain, ice, sleet, or snow the potential still exists for there to be a lot of all of them.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 23:32:28 GMT -6
Finally getting a good look at the FV3 and it's a solid hit of backside snow up 44 into the metro. Its been pretty consistent with a solution similar to that for several runs now
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 15, 2019 23:44:17 GMT -6
Finally getting a good look at the FV3 and it's a solid hit of backside snow up 44 into the metro. Its been pretty consistent with a solution similar to that for several runs now The backside snow is modeled to have like 15/1 ratios |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 15, 2019 23:47:23 GMT -6
Finally getting a good look at the FV3 and it's a solid hit of backside snow up 44 into the metro. Its been pretty consistent with a solution similar to that for several runs now The backside snow is modeled to have like 15/1 ratios Ya here’s a zoomed in view of the metro points north (sorry southerns it’s the best I can do). Pretty decent hit. Even some warning level amounts in the southern counties  |
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 15, 2019 23:53:40 GMT -6
WWA and I see the moon for the first time in days.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 16, 2019 0:00:54 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 0:34:57 GMT -6
How's the Euro look
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 0:37:00 GMT -6
Euro still has a rain to ice to snow setup but it’s a bit colder and more sheared than last run. It hits Arkansas and SE Mo with a pretty good deformation zone as well.
If your wondering about amounts, basically everyone is 2-3” with as much as 8-9” in the northern counties
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 0:46:40 GMT -6
I’d dig into the euro a bit more but honestly this system is starting to annoy me lol
This system still has a lot of potential for the area but the models don’t seem to have a great grasp on it right now. We sure got spoiled with the model consensus on the last system
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 16, 2019 0:57:08 GMT -6
The clouds have broke in Dittmer! Moon and stars are out shining brightly.
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Post by RyanD on Jan 16, 2019 0:59:23 GMT -6
Euro still has a rain to ice to snow setup but it’s a bit colder and more sheared than last run. It hits Arkansas and SE Mo with a pretty good deformation zone as well. If your wondering about amounts, basically everyone is 2-3” with as much as 8-9” in the northern counties 8-9" for the northern counties? I thought it was showing more to the south like the Ukie and FV3? I do think that areas just to the north are in the best shape. One thing I've learned in the 13 years in this forum is living just south of STL sucks if you like snow. I'm at maybe 15" on the season which is phenomenal but others are over 2 feet. Just crazy but it is what it is. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 1:20:04 GMT -6
The potential =/ lack of consensus is very annoying
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 1:36:55 GMT -6
FWIW the EPS looks pretty good. A bit of a shift south and now showing 4-5” in the metro as the mean. Max snow band runs from Quincy into central Illinois. Southern counties have a mean in the 2-3” range. Northern counties are in the 5-7” range
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 1:46:52 GMT -6
EPS has the surface low moving from OK City to Memphis then slowly cuts it NE. Looks like most members strengthen the low once it hits Memphis to. I really don’t know what to expect with this system but I think it has a few tricks up its sleeve. Euro control run is a pretty big hit along and north of 44 in Mo and 70 in Illinois
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 2:54:36 GMT -6
LOL to the 06z NAM....
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Post by jason0101 on Jan 16, 2019 3:35:39 GMT -6
elaborate?  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 4:07:08 GMT -6
Yeah. A foot of snow in like 6-7 hours from Union to Belleville. On insane qpf. Not happening. The GFS is like the FV3 with a 2-4" band along and SE of 44 on the backside |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 5:14:07 GMT -6
The 06z gefs is pretty damn sweet
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 5:34:12 GMT -6
Not a big fan of the Winter Weather Advisory for this morning. Temps are above freezing and not dropping very much. So I am dancing that fine line of mentioning the advisory...but not making a big deal about it. In fact...I'm probably making too big of a deal of not making a big deal about it... if that makes sense.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 16, 2019 5:47:33 GMT -6
It was 35 the whole drive into work this morning, according to the car thermometer.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 5:57:51 GMT -6
It was 35 the whole drive into work this morning, according to the car thermometer. Yeah... I'm just not feeling the advisory for this AM. |
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