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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 7, 2019 8:07:53 GMT -6
Temps here have risen to 48F from 40.5f an hour ago.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 7, 2019 8:10:08 GMT -6
F this weather. F f f f f f f.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 7, 2019 8:11:02 GMT -6
In looking at the overall pattern on the med range models, heres the good news:
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Post by dschreib on Feb 7, 2019 8:14:01 GMT -6
All I see on models, is cutter, cutter cutter, after cutter, cutter and another cutter. It's going to rain so f****** much, I'll never be able to walk on solid dry ground again until August. The euro ensembles looked good for a few days..but now are crappy again. That se ridge has got to go. Bastardi insists it will, but he always does, haha. I'll put a picture on over the weekend that shows the yard at the end of my driveway. People decide to drive around the potholes, choosing instead the muddy yard to drive through. It's great. |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 7, 2019 8:17:10 GMT -6
Remember when everyone was wanting these stupid midlatitude cyclones? I would take some shearing with a side of extra shear right about now. The EC can have 2-3 100-year blizzards in a season. Why can't we get a rarely-seen retreating arctic airmass a couple times in a season for this moisture to slam into? |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 7, 2019 8:37:17 GMT -6
If I hadn't received 17.5" of snow this season I think this would bother me a lot more. Yea, if the SE ridge wouldn't have developed, we would all have been looking at a truly epic season. But just keep in perspective that we have all had some good snow this year. We broke the curse of the last few years and hopefully will string together a couple more years like this one or better.
My only concern is that things will dry out this spring and summer (nature's law of averages) after an incredibly wet winter. Then again, patterns in either direction are tough to break.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 7, 2019 8:46:22 GMT -6
The NAM basically has very little precipitation output,maybe an inch or less, it shows 1-3” snow for Iowa and northern Illinois
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2019 9:31:43 GMT -6
12z Icon has moved way south for next week.
Hopefully the other models follow.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 7, 2019 9:36:30 GMT -6
If you look at the river bluffs in st.charles county there seems to be some ice in the tree tops. My temp held at 32.5 all night.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 7, 2019 9:44:35 GMT -6
12z Icon has moved way south for next week. Hopefully the other models follow. Not buying it whatsoever. It was in bed with the FV3 last week on this week's "ice storm" and they both crashed and burned. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 7, 2019 9:51:23 GMT -6
Actually icon temps were not far off. We were only 1 to 3 degrees from a huge ice storm. I never broke 40 this week
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Post by mchafin on Feb 7, 2019 9:51:35 GMT -6
on the bright side, the side of my yard will be nice to skate on tomorrow morning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 7, 2019 9:58:41 GMT -6
Actually icon temps were not far off. We were only 1 to 3 degrees from a huge ice storm. I never broke 40 this week ICON was showing temps in the teens to low 20s with heavy FZRN...it wasn't really even close. |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 7, 2019 10:00:05 GMT -6
Yes but the gfs nam and euro sucked on the warmup. They all were junk this go around
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 7, 2019 10:00:11 GMT -6
Ok... IMBY question... How intense will the snow/rain/monsoon be on Sunday?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 7, 2019 10:04:43 GMT -6
12z Icon has moved way south for next week. Hopefully the other models follow. Not buying it whatsoever. It was in bed with the FV3 last week on this week's "ice storm" and they both crashed and burned. I would say the gfs has made a huge adjustment as well lol |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Feb 7, 2019 10:22:11 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 7, 2019 10:27:06 GMT -6
Not buying it whatsoever. It was in bed with the FV3 last week on this week's "ice storm" and they both crashed and burned. I would say the gfs has made a huge adjustment as well lol Ha yea, barely even has a storm now. Weak low passing over/north of STL. Looks like a good bet for a nuisance sleet/zr event Sunday for the southern half of the viewing area. This would be the appropriate time for a "lol." |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 7, 2019 10:54:59 GMT -6
Honestly guys its been a intense winter. I have never seen so many wound up storms. We have had it all.this winter. Now I fear we are heading into a severe severe spring
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 7, 2019 11:25:09 GMT -6
Honestly guys its been a intense winter. I have never seen so many wound up storms. We have had it all.this winter. Now I fear we are heading into a severe4 severe spring It has been intense overall although the numbers may end up pretty unremarkable for st louis. It may seem intense too overall because we have been in a cyclone drought, so to speak until this year. No watchers and no major storm of interest through mid feb because the storm track is simply too far north. Lack of a strong arctic high to help nudge these systems further south may mean that the upper great plains into the upper midwest may tally up some impressive winter statistics. As has been mentioned there are some subtle signs of some changes long term in the overall pattern - the jiggling of the handle but those arent showing up on op models for the next 7 days. I think we will get more snow but we clearly wont benefit from the persistent reloading pattern that is boosting the winter totals up north. A couple minor events in the next 7 days is something to watch...if you like that sort of thing. |
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 7, 2019 11:29:55 GMT -6
1.80” of rain from this system. Been holding at 34° since 5am this morning. Wind is picking up out of the NW at 15-18mph sustained Now and surfaces are starting to dry off nicely.
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Post by bear1 on Feb 7, 2019 11:33:34 GMT -6
Down to 30° out here in the woods.
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Post by bear1 on Feb 7, 2019 11:40:56 GMT -6
Getting a quick burst of fine sleet now.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 7, 2019 11:42:03 GMT -6
1.80” of rain from this system. Been holding at 34° since 5am this morning. Wind is picking up out of the NW at 15-18mph sustained Now and surfaces are starting to dry off nicely. I had a pretty intense wind driven rain/snow mix coming down, or should I say blowing sideways, about an hour ago. Didn't last long. But I was glad I was inside and wasn't trying to walk anywhere. |
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WeatherOrNot
Weather Weenie
Hull, IL (NW corner Pike Co., IL)
Posts: 36
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Post by WeatherOrNot on Feb 7, 2019 11:43:57 GMT -6
28* here, down from 32.5* overnight
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Post by amstilost on Feb 7, 2019 11:51:09 GMT -6
I did not have a rain gauge out for this event. Radar estimates are 1.5" near/in De Soto. Seems to me like there was more than that. When I heard the thunder from the SW tornadic storms early this morning I was laying in bed praying that they had weakened considerably. Even a severe storm with winds would/could have taken out alot of trees as saturated as the ground is. What a bogus pattern. Now dry out and get cold for 36 hours or so. Can't wait for the thumper snow storms.....if they happen. Still, I am somewhere around 16-17" of snow so far this year. I am grateful I can say so far, still a ways to go. We can't tally up the totals just yet. Rain in Feb. sucks though, no sugar coating that fact.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 7, 2019 12:02:50 GMT -6
You know it's not a good pattern when Seattle is getting more snow than STL. We definitely need the EPO ridge to move back East into it's typical domain.
Sunday and possibly Monday could be worth watching though. Models show the mid-level flow veering with time which weakens the lift from WAA but there's still potential for a minor event.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Feb 7, 2019 12:10:59 GMT -6
We have a legit snow shower here in Wentzville.
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Post by REB on Feb 7, 2019 12:18:27 GMT -6
.92" since midnight. 2.26" total starting 2/5/19
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Post by birddog on Feb 7, 2019 12:22:10 GMT -6
1.23" for the whole event here. I think the temp last night was 33. This morning temps have hovered around 35 all morning.
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