|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 6:04:25 GMT -6
Starting to see some consensus that those of us along 44 do have a likelihood of accumulating snow but geez...these models suck as much as the non event WAA right now.
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 6:04:58 GMT -6
It was 35 the whole drive into work this morning, according to the car thermometer. Yeah... I'm just not feeling the advisory for this AM. Pretend as if it doesn’t exist. |
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 6:07:59 GMT -6
The 06z gefs is pretty damn sweet If only half of that was snow... |
|
|
|
Post by lizard7151971 on Jan 16, 2019 6:10:37 GMT -6
Not a big fan of the Winter Weather Advisory for this morning. Temps are above freezing and not dropping very much. So I am dancing that fine line of mentioning the advisory...but not making a big deal about it. In fact...I'm probably making too big of a deal of not making a big deal about it... if that makes sense. I went to bed at 9pm I was at 31.6. Woke up at 3 am, it was 33.7. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 6:18:25 GMT -6
The thin nature of the backside band still looks to be in play. Any chance it expands a bit as we get closer?
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 16, 2019 6:23:27 GMT -6
Based on the GOES West WV imagery, and what Chris pointed out yesterday on his 500MB vort sequence, the energy that will spin our storm down looks like it is moving almost due east and at the northern CA coast. If that is the case, wouldnt our storm come in further south? Or am I looking at that wrong?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 6:42:20 GMT -6
The thin nature of the backside band still looks to be in play. Any chance it expands a bit as we get closer? The secondary deformation band (if that is what develops) looks skinny. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 6:58:23 GMT -6
I'm bored.
|
|
|
|
Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 16, 2019 7:04:05 GMT -6
Weren’t you doing bustop duty on Wednesday’s at first? |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 7:13:23 GMT -6
Weren’t you doing bustop duty on Wednesday’s at first? Did them during ratings in November... then taking much of winter off...probably get back to it in May when it warms up  |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 7:15:58 GMT -6
Sure wish this storm could throw a better shield of snow into the backside.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 7:18:14 GMT -6
I'm not ready to put numbers out officially... but starting to gravitate towards a widespread 1-4" snowfall...at least until we can hone in on the location of the narrow heavier band.
|
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 7:21:25 GMT -6
This is a tough forecast. I think most areas see 1-4" but there is definitely that convective potential in a tiny swath on the backside that could drop a 6-8" number IMO.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 7:30:54 GMT -6
So what is narrow in this case. Are we talk in 20 miles, 40 miles, or 50 miles? One County, two counties, or less?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 7:35:17 GMT -6
20 to 30 miles I would think...
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 16, 2019 7:38:15 GMT -6
Euro still has a rain to ice to snow setup but it’s a bit colder and more sheared than last run. It hits Arkansas and SE Mo with a pretty good deformation zone as well. If your wondering about amounts, basically everyone is 2-3” with as much as 8-9” in the northern counties 8-9" for the northern counties? I thought it was showing more to the south like the Ukie and FV3? I do think that areas just to the north are in the best shape. One thing I've learned in the 13 years in this forum is living just south of STL sucks if you like snow. I'm at maybe 15" on the season which is phenomenal but others are over 2 feet. Just crazy but it is what it is. I feel your pain .... I am at around 12 inches...4 in Nov and 8 this past weekend...... compared to last year it’s amazing but seeing what they have had just north stinks lol |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 16, 2019 7:40:31 GMT -6
20 to 30 miles I would think... Makes your job kinda tough lol where will a 30 mile wide band of snow set up that’s thousands of miles away lol |
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 7:50:30 GMT -6
20 to 30 miles I would think... We've seen that before. Going to be interesting. I remember the Weather Service issued a warning with barely a county and a half wide one time. And even then it really didn't cover the whole counties they were putting into it. It will be one of those situations where somebody could jackpot at 8 inches and 15 miles away they got 2 or less. You could have a town like Belleville with 8in on the East End and 2in on the West End I still get a kick out of people getting amazed at these gradients, but we have it happen with rain and nobody really remarks about it. It is what it is. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2019 7:53:20 GMT -6
I'm guessing the blizzard warning for the Sierra Nevada and high wind warning for the central California valley is our weekend storm coming ashore?
And the NWS weather radio forecast this morning is confusing. "Rain, possibly mixed with snow; accumulation of 1-2"
If it's only a possibility of snow how are we going to get to 1-2". So then does that mean 1-2" of rain?
I realize it's a difficult forecast but there has to be a better way of making it clearer than that.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2019 7:55:12 GMT -6
Don't know which Dierbergs this is  |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 7:55:52 GMT -6
It will be interesting to see if the NAM holds its further south and colder solutions. Snow mentioned the Euro did come in colder last night. It has the 32 degree line right along I 70 and the dew points upper 20s . It has less backside snow, the front end change over area might be our best bet for snow .
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 7:56:11 GMT -6
I'm guessing the blizzard warning for the Sierra Nevada and high wind warning for the central California valley is our weekend storm coming ashore? And the NWS weather radio forecast this morning is confusing. "Rain, possibly mixed with snow; accumulation of 1-2" If it's only a possibility of snow how are we going to get to 1-2". So then does that mean 1-2" of rain? I realize it's a difficult forecast but there has to be a better way of making it clearer than that. Nope... it is still waaay off the coast.  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2019 8:01:49 GMT -6
4 inches...I want 4 inches of snow. Doable?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2019 8:04:15 GMT -6
Also i noticed the nws forecast is like 10 degrees warmer then it qas a couple days ago for st night thry sunday night
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 8:06:40 GMT -6
I would be very happy with 4” s out of this storm
|
|
|
|
Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 8:07:31 GMT -6
If my local forecast is correct this snow is going to be long gone by the time the back side snow hits. I'm forecast to get an inch of rain before change over
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 8:08:38 GMT -6
Yes models are not near as cold as they looked a few days ago
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 8:12:05 GMT -6
Yes models are not near as cold as they looked a few days ago I am holding on to the cold... and not ready to cave on that...especially if the snow pans out. |
|
|
|
Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jan 16, 2019 8:23:39 GMT -6
This feels more like the storms we all sit around and drive ourselves nuts about. I feel like the last storm spoiled us. Models were locked in and had the storm modeled beautifully and this system is a hot mess. But, isn't that why we are fascinated by weather? If it was so easy, we wouldn't wait for every single model run to come out. LOL I'm personally good with whatever happens. The two big snows we have had this winter in my neck of the woods has satisfied me. We get more, awesome. If not, a decent winter. But we have a couple months of fun and multiple systems to keep an eye on.
As for this forum.......It's the best, hands down. Good information, good banter, and most importantly, good people. Cheers!
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 8:38:35 GMT -6
12Z NAM is gonna be more north this run.
Seems stronger and more defined with the energy aloft as well.
|
|
