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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 8:40:31 GMT -6
And not as cold, it looks like a lot of cold rain for a big portion of the area
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 8:43:31 GMT -6
NAM probably more realistic this run than past. Still has some semblance of a deformation zone on the backside crawling up I-44 but again it's sorta of fragmented.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 8:46:19 GMT -6
Of course it naturally goes poof as it slides into the metro. And the system shears out into a nice piece of sheared out kit.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 8:48:30 GMT -6
It’s way weaker than all other models, it weakens to a 1009 MB storm where all other models are 997-999 when it’s south and east of us. That’s a pretty big difference in strength
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 8:49:01 GMT -6
Looks like one of our 'meme' systems in which it's 33*F and Rain...
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 8:49:04 GMT -6
The NAM is a huge swing and a miss.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 8:54:22 GMT -6
The NAM is a huge swing and a miss. I have a feeling this whole system may end up being just that. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 16, 2019 8:58:43 GMT -6
The NAM is a huge swing and a miss. Now we are back to our usual winter storms in STL. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 8:59:30 GMT -6
NWS has there snow graphic out, it has Wentzville in the 6-8” range Friday night and Saturday, I wish ... I’m not seeing anything close to that currently. I think Chris area wide 1-4” is a good start right now . Unless it is colder on the front end or stronger on the backend. Who knows a lot can change in 72 hours. It would stink though to have heavy rain and 33 (melt all the snow pack) then turn over to just flurries
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jan 16, 2019 9:02:11 GMT -6
The NAM is a huge swing and a miss. Hate to say but good I need a day off |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2019 9:06:48 GMT -6
I doubt it's that weak
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2019 9:09:56 GMT -6
NWS has there snow graphic out, it has Wentzville in the 6-8” range Friday night and Saturday, I wish ... I’m not seeing anything close to that currently. I think Chris area wide 1-4” is a good start right now . Unless it is colder on the front end or stronger on the backend. Who knows a lot can change in 72 hours. It would stink though to have heavy rain and 33 (melt all the snow pack) then turn over to just flurries I'm not seeing any graphic with snow amounts. Link? |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 9:12:04 GMT -6
NWS has there snow graphic out, it has Wentzville in the 6-8” range Friday night and Saturday, I wish ... I’m not seeing anything close to that currently. I think Chris area wide 1-4” is a good start right now . Unless it is colder on the front end or stronger on the backend. Who knows a lot can change in 72 hours. It would stink though to have heavy rain and 33 (melt all the snow pack) then turn over to just flurries Wow... just saw that graphic...that is super aggressive in my opinion. But...that is only my opinion...and I have as good a chance of being wrong as anyone right now. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 9:12:37 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2019 9:14:27 GMT -6
Perhaps timing is coming into better focus. I think we will have to see how the rest of the pack holds up. Is satellite showing any deviations from expectations?
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 9:15:57 GMT -6
ICON is warmer and a hair north, but stronger and still has potential for a backside thump for almost everyone.
*Actually it gives the metro area a solid pounding. Best run yet in terms of hype/excitement factor.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 9:20:34 GMT -6
It is too early to write anything off... but there certainly is no signal that argues for stronger wording. A conservative approach is again warranted with this storm. I have been holding on to my cold based on the still very cold ensembles...but I may need to nudge my numbers up a few degrees...especially if widespread fresh snow does not materialize.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 16, 2019 9:20:55 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 9:31:04 GMT -6
Long Range tidbit, but the MJO is waking up and screaming towards Phase 5... A very warm phase for us. That does not bold well for any prolonged wintry setups down the road. There is potential that our 'great' cold period might not fully come to fruition. Of course other factors in play, but it's not looking like as much of a slam dunk as it did a week ago.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 9:35:03 GMT -6
Finally the temp profiles are in for the ICON and it looks mean with a cold rain to freezing rain/sleet than to heavy snow with temp profiles crashing between 18Z Saturday and 00 Sunday as the deformation zone pulls in. ICON would signify a major winter storm for the area with some decent winds as well in the 20-30 kt range.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2019 9:35:25 GMT -6
For snow purposes i am bout done for the year. I am still very sore from.shoveling. this was a epic year in my opinion because of the last several winter being slow. I would not mind a early spring. Also not the next 2 weeks still appear extremely active and potentially snowy
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 9:37:57 GMT -6
For snow purposes i am bout done for the year. I am still very sore from.shoveling. this was a epic year in my opinion because of the last several winter being slow. I would not mind a early spring. Also not the next 2 weeks still appear extremely active and potentially snowy We'd be heading straight for Summer, not Spring. Just a hunch looking at the long term patterns. InAccuWX is showing an April that looks like June and a March that looks like Feb transitioning to June at the tail end. Severe weather season looks dull as well with the pattern being shown. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 9:39:05 GMT -6
Long Range tidbit, but the MJO is waking up and screaming towards Phase 5... A very warm phase for us. That does not bold well for any prolonged wintry setups down the road. There is potential that our 'great' cold period might not fully come to fruition. Of course other factors in play, but it's not looking like as much of a slam dunk as it did a week ago. There is definitely a noted decrease in the cold intrusions on the last couple runs of the GFS compared to yesterday. The ICON is definitely much better. Nice backside. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 9:41:04 GMT -6
Wow! That is a very aggressive forecast this early for Stl NWS. I’m not sure where they got that sort of confidence but I’ll take that map!
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 9:52:39 GMT -6
With the area the National Weather Service is showing for the heaviest precip to be that is snow looks like the b word could come out for them. That area is pretty flat as you get up towards Springfield
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2019 9:58:37 GMT -6
Ggs is getting better 2 to 6 along 44. I could see this thing bomb out if it comes in right look at those dynamics
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 10:01:17 GMT -6
GFS is improved. Like I've said all along with this one, this is going to be a game of winners and losers. Some folks are gonna get a pretty good snow while others, well, maybe not much at all. I hope the whole area ends up smoothed over a little bit where even the losers would get 2-3 inches, while isolated pockets get jackpotted.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 10:03:18 GMT -6
The GFS is a mess at 850mb...it takes a lead wave right over STL..then develops a disorganized center well south of STL..with the 700mb is over southern Missouri.
I would really like to see better continuity with the mid/low level waves...and we certainly do not have that yet.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 10:05:03 GMT -6
Not that it has much effect on the storm, but its pretty remarkable how much the cold behind the system has moderated. Looks like 20's now for the Chiefs-Pats game instead of near zero.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 16, 2019 10:05:19 GMT -6
Well..these are the 80%=0% people so..and we all know they have no reservations about putting out a forecast to the public that calls for 8-10" at 2:00, then 9-12" at 3:30, 14-16" at 4:30, then back down to 9-12" an hour after that. The public doesn't know that this is the fault of automated reports. They just see a wildly inconsistent forecast.
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