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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 12, 2019 16:57:46 GMT -6
Thinking 2 to 3 friday into nightfall with antecedent warm conditions, time of day, time of season as probable factors to temper accums for friday. Saturday night, another inch or less. Tuesday may not happen at all per afd and i was thinking of a suppressed system, afd says low cld close off and become stationary. Thats my thoughts for now.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 16:58:20 GMT -6
The euro pivots the system as it's passing us.
Would be absolutely best case scenario.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2019 16:58:38 GMT -6
And if it's frontogenically forced there tends to be a more focused zone of higher amounts with a sharper gradient between the haves and have-nots. It's also a crap shoot trying to predict exactly where the stripe might setup.
I remember that frontogenesis bomb that the metro was supposed to cash in on and it actually happened to park itself north over Brighton. What year was that again?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 17:00:27 GMT -6
EPS mean for the Friday system is 3" for a large section of the CWA centered on the metro
Pretty good place to be at this stage of the game
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 12, 2019 17:05:12 GMT -6
Lows close to 20 Friday AM... not too warm
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 17:06:21 GMT -6
And if it's frontogenically forced there tends to be a more focused zone of higher amounts with a sharper gradient between the haves and have-nots. It's also a crap shoot trying to predict exactly where the stripe might setup. I remember that frontogenesis bomb that the metro was supposed to cash in on and it actually happened to park itself north over Brighton. What year was that again? I think that was early February a few years ago
I remember I was in Wentzville for my cousins bday party and the fgen band setup just north of us
Then we had to deal with BRTN posting about his 2" an hour rates while the metro saw some flurries lol
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 12, 2019 17:06:42 GMT -6
I think in the end, we will NOT get 3 back to back accumulators. Things will be clearer by thursday which system will affect us the most...and then the other two systems will skirt us. Got to go with climatological tendencies around here. Fridays system has had some consistency so im favoring that as our highest impact system, a moderate impact. Then lesser impact saturday night of maybe an inch. Tuesday looks like least likely happening right now, but if things go differently with the first two, i wld keep it on the table...just thinking 3 accumulators just doesnt happen around here.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 12, 2019 17:15:31 GMT -6
I think in the end, we will NOT get 3 back to back accumulators. Things will be clearer by thursday which system will affect us the most...and then the other two systems will skirt us. Got to go with climatological tendencies around here. Fridays system has had some consistency so im favoring that as our highest impact system, a moderate impact. Then lesser impact saturday night of maybe an inch. Tuesday looks like least likely happening right now, but if things go differently with the first two, i wld keep it on the table...just thinking 3 accumulators just doesnt happen around here. Playing the odds. A wise gambler |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 17:17:13 GMT -6
I think in the end, we will NOT get 3 back to back accumulators. Things will be clearer by thursday which system will affect us the most...and then the other two systems will skirt us. Got to go with climatological tendencies around here. Fridays system has had some consistency so im favoring that as our highest impact system, a moderate impact. Then lesser impact saturday night of maybe an inch. Tuesday looks like least likely happening right now, but if things go differently with the first two, i wld keep it on the table...just thinking 3 accumulators just doesnt happen around here. Friday is most likely. These systems tend to not follow the same trajectory. These model outputs with 0.5" of liquid are rather ambitious. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 17:19:24 GMT -6
And if it's frontogenically forced there tends to be a more focused zone of higher amounts with a sharper gradient between the haves and have-nots. It's also a crap shoot trying to predict exactly where the stripe might setup. I remember that frontogenesis bomb that the metro was supposed to cash in on and it actually happened to park itself north over Brighton. What year was that again? I think that was early February a few years ago
I remember I was in Wentzville for my cousins bday party and the fgen band setup just north of us
Then we had to deal with BRTN posting about his 2" an hour rates while the metro saw some flurries lol
The euro looks like it has a deformation zone. That's what I gather from the weather.us. Free maps |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2019 17:40:51 GMT -6
It looks like there is a pretty good mix of forcing mechanisms on the Euro. Frontogenesis certainly isn't the only thing in play, but it does look like it is a contributor to the higher totals.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 12, 2019 17:41:32 GMT -6
These have an awful tendency to trend North. Yes they do. Often within 24 hrs. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2019 18:02:03 GMT -6
These have an awful tendency to trend North. Yes they do. Often within 24 hrs. Only need 300 miles 😀 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2019 18:45:29 GMT -6
12z EPS has three distinct 850mb lows tracking pretty much right down 70...Friday/Sat, Sunday and again Tuesday. If that verifies, there's going to be a lot of snowfall across much of the area...favoring N of I-70 overall. I still like my earlier idea that areas between I-70 and I-80 are favored for the heaviest snowfall from these systems. I'm still concerned about ice next week...but that's still way out there.
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campingfamily
Weather Weenie
Birdie Hills and Knaust Rd St. Peters, MO
Posts: 54 
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Post by campingfamily on Feb 12, 2019 18:52:26 GMT -6
We are to drive back and forth from Mizzou Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to watch our kid wrestle in the high school State tournament. That ought to be reason for all kinds of travel hindering weather! Can't get a hotel room unless you try a year in advance!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 12, 2019 19:02:10 GMT -6
We are to drive back and forth from Mizzou Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to watch our kid wrestle in the high school State tournament. That ought to be reason for all kinds of travel hindering weather! Can't get a hotel room unless you try a year in advance! Cld you try jefferson city for a hotel room? |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 12, 2019 19:03:25 GMT -6
Congratulations on your kid making it to state.
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Post by maddogchief on Feb 12, 2019 19:08:46 GMT -6
12z EPS has three distinct 850mb lows tracking pretty much right down 70...Friday/Sat, Sunday and again Tuesday. If that verifies, there's going to be a lot of snowfall across much of the area...favoring N of I-70 overall. I still like my earlier idea that areas between I-70 and I-80 are favored for the heaviest snowfall from these systems. I'm still concerned about ice next week...but that's still way out there. I’ll second that motion. All in favor? |
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 12, 2019 19:26:49 GMT -6
So are we ever going to see this morning's pics from Mount St.Peter's or not?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 19:27:00 GMT -6
12z EPS has three distinct 850mb lows tracking pretty much right down 70...Friday/Sat, Sunday and again Tuesday. If that verifies, there's going to be a lot of snowfall across much of the area...favoring N of I-70 overall. I still like my earlier idea that areas between I-70 and I-80 are favored for the heaviest snowfall from these systems. I'm still concerned about ice next week...but that's still way out there. I’ll second that motion. All in favor? Almost no one. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 19:30:45 GMT -6
12z EPS has three distinct 850mb lows tracking pretty much right down 70...Friday/Sat, Sunday and again Tuesday. If that verifies, there's going to be a lot of snowfall across much of the area...favoring N of I-70 overall. I still like my earlier idea that areas between I-70 and I-80 are favored for the heaviest snowfall from these systems. I'm still concerned about ice next week...but that's still way out there. I’ll second that motion. All in favor? Motion disallowed |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Feb 12, 2019 19:55:34 GMT -6
We are to drive back and forth from Mizzou Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to watch our kid wrestle in the high school State tournament. That ought to be reason for all kinds of travel hindering weather! Can't get a hotel room unless you try a year in advance! Cld you try jefferson city for a hotel room? been that way since I wrestled in in state in 2006. Glad to see that wrestling is still running strong! |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Feb 12, 2019 20:29:03 GMT -6
I am pretty sure the wind has gotten stronger... holy cow!
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 12, 2019 20:34:09 GMT -6
Wind is down to 18 in Festus and not as strong as this afternoon!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 20:43:08 GMT -6
NAM completely dissolves the Friday system over the area
Probably just the NAM being the NAM
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2019 20:47:35 GMT -6
00z nam looks like trash Friday
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Post by nascarfan999 on Feb 12, 2019 20:51:44 GMT -6
I'm not trying to be snarky, but if a wind adviosry were hoisted for STL and surrounding counties -- what changes? Whats the point of even having the advisory at all then? I'm just giving factors to why it would be perfectly logical and then MoDOT would put it on the digital boards. Its safety and CYA. And also allows for insurance to take factors into account for truckers. The last thing we need is an excuse for MODOT to put something else on their message boards instead of actual travel times and incidents. Every time it is remotely possible to raining, snowing, or being below freezing they remove the valuable information with their generic slow down/watch for ice on bridges and overpasses messages. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 12, 2019 20:56:55 GMT -6
Nam doesn't completely kill it but that rapid weakening is something we need to be aware of as a possibilty.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 12, 2019 21:10:29 GMT -6
NAM completely dissolves the Friday system over the area Probably just the NAM being the NAM Just seen that. Throw it out! We want snow and NAM doesnt. Throw it in the ttttrrrraaasssshhhhh! ❄ |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2019 21:16:25 GMT -6
NAM never really gets the WAA going over us and there's no Fgen forcing like the EURO. It seems very disorganized with the upper level system.
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