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Post by RyanD on Feb 12, 2019 21:28:45 GMT -6
I'm watching Project Blue Book on History Channel (last week's episode) and they are in Union Missouri. It looks accurate because there's no snow on the ground! Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 22:13:33 GMT -6
GFS is still a solid hit of snow Friday
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2019 22:15:21 GMT -6
GFS is still a solid hit of snow Friday It’s like 2 inches... Not nothing, but seems clear the other runs were over amped. Not surprising considering every low crashing into the PACNW has been over amped on the models |
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 12, 2019 22:19:59 GMT -6
FV3 has dialed it down some, but it still shows more than the GFS.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 22:21:07 GMT -6
I'm watching Project Blue Book on History Channel (last week's episode) and they are in Union Missouri. It looks accurate because there's no snow on the ground! Lol That's comedic gold |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2019 22:23:02 GMT -6
Pretty crappy runs tonight. Gem hits the hardest on Friday. Sunday is going north.
Tuesday is probably suppressed.
Try again tomorrow when they flop back.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 22:39:02 GMT -6
GFS is still a solid hit of snow Friday It’s like 2 inches... Not nothing, but seems clear the other runs were over amped. Not surprising considering every low crashing into the PACNW has been over amped on the models Kuckera maps have widespread 3” |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 22:47:09 GMT -6
The gfs looks exactly the same. Except the main band is a little further SW.
I don't recall any GFS runs showing much more.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 22:48:13 GMT -6
I don't think any run besides the NAM has been crappy tonight. And that's the NAM after 78 hours when it does all its crazy stuff
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 22:49:04 GMT -6
The gfs looks exactly the same. Except the main band is a little further SW. I don't recall any GFS runs showing much more. GFS has been consistently showing 2-3"
FV3 has been the juicy one
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 22:54:32 GMT -6
The GEM is unrealistically amped up.
Doubt this event has even half the qpf the gem shows.
I'm really like where we sit attm.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2019 22:55:19 GMT -6
Agree to disagree. It is easy to see how this thing could be reminiscent of last year where things went from 3-6 to 2-3 to 1-2.
NWS obviously already had expectations managed. The error bars for 4+ shrunk some tonight and the other extended events didn’t pop. That’s all I’m saying.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 22:58:12 GMT -6
The GEM is unrealistically amped up. Doubt this event has even half the qpf the gem shows. I'm really like where we sit attm. You can usually cut the GEM and RGEM snowfall totals in half most of the time. Those Canadian models like to get hyped up |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 12, 2019 23:03:34 GMT -6
Agree to disagree. It is easy to see how this thing could be reminiscent of last year where things went from 3-6 to 2-3 to 1-2. NWS obviously already had expectations managed. The error bars for 4+ shrunk some tonight and the other extended events didn’t pop. That’s all I’m saying. Still have the euro to go tonight. It gets the most weight when making a forecast IMO. It and the FV3 are my go too’s. Keeping expectations in check is always the way to go when dealing with snow in STL. But I still feel very comfortable with my 2-4” forecast right now |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 12, 2019 23:03:38 GMT -6
I’ll add that the 00z ukmet only increases my pessimism...
Good night all, hope I’m wrong.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 23:09:11 GMT -6
I dont expect anything.
But the gfs is slightly weaker and SW so is the fv3.
But the gfs is discernibly no different for us.
The fv3 is essentially only an inch or so less.
The gem was mostly sleet at 12z and had shifted the accumulating snow band slightly South.
The Nam is unreliabile at this stage.
I'll bet the euro is essentially the same or slightly further SW
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 12, 2019 23:11:41 GMT -6
Model trend is for the lead wave passing through the lakes Thursday to come through slower which creates more confluence as the main shortwave starts to run into that. So the WAA wanes as the system heads east. That makes me think a 2-4" forecast is a good call with 2" amounts likely and 3-4" possible if banding develops. Also, the slower exit of the lead wave could nudge the storm a bit further S. I still think the metro is in a good spot though.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 12, 2019 23:28:03 GMT -6
The BLUES are now 4pts up on a wildcard spot with at least 2 games in hand on everyone.
Including 2 games in hand on Dallas that's in 3rd place.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 0:10:59 GMT -6
Euro= nice
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 13, 2019 0:21:49 GMT -6
Euro holding course with 5-7” for the northern 2/3rds of the area
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 13, 2019 0:35:55 GMT -6
This far out the NWS is understandably playing it safe by keeping it vague.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 2:43:59 GMT -6
well if you thought the 0z NAM was bad, don't look at the 6z. Ouch
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 13, 2019 2:53:13 GMT -6
The DAM is going to be a problem Friday evening. There is a VERY VERY dry layer at about 850mb...and it's not just a thin little layer. It is pretty deep. I'm going to stay with "Light Snow...Some Light Accumulation Possible" There is likely to be a band of accumulating snow somewhere in a northwest to southeast band...but it is likely to be very narrow...with not much outside of that band.
As for Saturday night/Sunday AM system... I see that as more of a brief burst of light snow in the WAA ahead of the wave...followed up by freezing drizzle as we quickly lose ice nucleation in the DGZ.
I'm not changing anything about Tues/Wed system... just covering with some light snow for now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 3:06:19 GMT -6
bleck
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 3:09:40 GMT -6
My interest in the next week just evaporated. Rain rain rain. Finally gets colder and we get Nada nada nada.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 13, 2019 3:11:41 GMT -6
My interest in the next week just evaporated. Rain rain rain. Finally gets colder and we get Nada nada nada. See... I've got you where I want you. You get all down...then I come in with a big surprise storm! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 3:20:38 GMT -6
lol. Well surprise me. Now. It's been cruddy the last several weeks. Just like December.  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 3:27:57 GMT -6
NWS has around 2" here..2-3 around Columbia. As of now
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 13, 2019 4:54:58 GMT -6
Master Chris, please check your PM's.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 13, 2019 5:26:50 GMT -6
Answered
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