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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 16, 2019 10:06:45 GMT -6
We'd be heading straight for Summer, not Spring. Just a hunch looking at the long term patterns. InAccuWX is showing an April that looks like June and a March that looks like Feb transitioning to June at the tail end. Severe weather season looks dull as well with the pattern being shown.
Look, a squirrel!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 10:09:53 GMT -6
A blend of the FV3 and EURO supports a significant to possibly major winter storm for parts of the area. Both swing a semi-closed mid/upper-level low though to the S with the h85 low tracking across S MO and up into IN and the SLP very close to MEM. That would put the 44/70 corridor in a good position for backside snowfall, although the deformation is looking a bit anemic on some of these runs. It's still looking like mostly liquid on the front side with some ZR/PL possible near the transition zone along/N of 70.
One thing I've noticed is that the strength of the ridge has lessened over the last couple cycles which will reduce the blizzard potential but also possibly allow the storm to come a bit further N. So these suppressed solutions may not hold up.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 10:11:48 GMT -6
Well..these are the 80%=0% people so..and we all know they have no reservations about putting out a forecast to the public that calls for 8-10" at 2:00, then 9-12" at 3:30, 14-16" at 4:30, then back down to 9-12" an hour after that. The public doesn't know that this is the fault of automated reports. They just see a wildly inconsistent forecast. Yep. The NWS lost all credibility after the last storm. No they did not. You are really starting to become an annoyance, TBH... |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2019 10:14:18 GMT -6
I read it as sarcasm but i cld be wrong.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 10:15:15 GMT -6
It just goes to show you. Yesterday and the day before everybody was saying, but the one sure thing.......... is it going to get real cold. Lol
Oh boy. Nothing like the weather. There is no sure thing of anything
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 10:15:16 GMT -6
I read it as sarcasm but i cld be wrong. More like trolling... |
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Post by yypc on Jan 16, 2019 10:15:18 GMT -6
Sorry I misread. I'll delete and shut up.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 10:16:10 GMT -6
The GEM looks pretty good, it’s best run yet nice 3-5” on the backside, looks very close to ICON and GFS . Hopefully the Euro will come in similar, we need to get some continuity.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 10:18:10 GMT -6
I was getting ready to cancel all our plans for Saturday and Saturday evening. I'm glad I held off on that.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 16, 2019 10:19:04 GMT -6
For the record..I am not suggesting they lost all credibility! My post was just an observation from the point of view of an idiot like myself.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2019 10:20:47 GMT -6
Just think though we could get no more snow rest of the winter and we are at or above some well above seasonal snow average
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 10:22:25 GMT -6
Canadian is good too.
GFS cuts the system north next week.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 10:23:40 GMT -6
For the record..I am not suggesting they lost all credibility! My post was just an observation from the point of view of an idiot like myself. For the record, I wasn't calling you out... |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 16, 2019 10:25:48 GMT -6
Like I said..an idiot.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 10:27:58 GMT -6
GFS looks pretty darn good this morning...the mid-level evolution is definitely convoluted in some of these runs though which muddies the water a bit. I suspect some of that may be due to convective feedback.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2019 10:28:39 GMT -6
Obviously this storm has higher bust potential in terms of accumulations at the airport because temperature and ptypes are going to be a bigger concern this go-around.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2019 10:31:51 GMT -6
Im sticking with my earlier thoughts of 2 to 4 but the overall impact may not be as high as i previously stated as potential. May be still be a moderate impact. Id like to see how things play out with these little antecedent systems.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 10:36:06 GMT -6
WRT the zones and snowfall issues at the NWS...that has been a struggle for a while. It has to do with how they build the forecast within their grids...and then how the software adds those numbers up and generates ranges. It is not the first time this has happened...and I do find it confusing myself.
As for the weekend event... everything issd's still on the table...a deepening system would get me more excited...but as we saw last weekend...that is not always a necessity lol.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2019 10:40:26 GMT -6
Wld be nice chris if you did a sequel on your video tomorrow showing how that swirl is progressing, hint hint.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 10:46:03 GMT -6
Yeah a deepening storm would increase the wind potential for sure and probaby thr backside snowfall/banding...but models only slowly deepen it until it hits the NE and finally phases in with the N branch.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 10:49:09 GMT -6
I may post some rough number ranges later today....an over/under map centered on 4"....those who may get more than 4" and those who may get less than 4"
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 10:50:25 GMT -6
All in all, these are encouraging trends from models. More cold sector precip for sure. QPF amounts upped as well. We are still going to see narrow swaths of larger snow amounts that exceed forecast totals but I think as of now every one is in the ballgame here and it will be fun to watch unfold.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 10:52:19 GMT -6
I may post some rough number ranges later today....an over/under map centered on 4"....those who may get more than 4" and those who may get less than 4" Just curious... Will one of those 4"+ be in BRTN area and the other more coming up around Rolla with STL in the minimal area? |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 16, 2019 10:52:43 GMT -6
I may post some rough number ranges later today....an over/under map centered on 4"....those who may get more than 4" and those who may get less than 4" Please put Ballwin in the 4 or 4+ snowfall map range please. 😄 |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 10:58:08 GMT -6
I may post some rough number ranges later today....an over/under map centered on 4"....those who may get more than 4" and those who may get less than 4" I'd feel confident in putting out +/- 4" as a starting point...that seems like a good call right now. There's probably potential for 6"+ in banding but no reason to get cute with amounts or cut offs at this point. |
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 16, 2019 11:00:07 GMT -6
I assume areas to the west of metro will change over quicker (as typical), so snow amount potential will be higher?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 11:02:28 GMT -6
I may post some rough number ranges later today....an over/under map centered on 4"....those who may get more than 4" and those who may get less than 4" Just curious... Will one of those 4"+ be in BRTN area and the other more coming up around Rolla with STL in the minimal area? You will know when I know. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2019 11:03:26 GMT -6
SREF plumes are at 2" for the airport by 0Z on 1/20 which seems to cover the bulk of the event.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 11:08:39 GMT -6
Bdwx- what does the 12z GEFS look like? The serf plums were the last to catch on last storm
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 16, 2019 11:14:31 GMT -6
Thought this was pretty neat...
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