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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 11:19:39 GMT -6
00z EC control run looks great...looks like widespread 4-6" along/NW of 44/70 with spots up to 8-10" and still has near-blizzard conditions developing on the backside with a 50kt LLJ and 24mb+ pressure gradient across MO.
The 00z EPS still has the heavier snowband up across N MO into N/Central IL. It shows a nice band of enhanced 700mb RH setting up right along 44/70 though. There should be some decent Fgen banding with that...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 11:24:06 GMT -6
Bdwx- what does the 12z GEFS look like? The serf plums were the last to catch on last storm Accuwx hasn't gotten the 12z run in yet but the 06z GEFS looks good and very similar to the EURO with the h85 track across S MO/IL and the SLP across the benchmark. |
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280 
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Post by snowcat on Jan 16, 2019 11:27:51 GMT -6
Chris, I haven't seen much mentioned regarding this evening's WWA...is there not much of a concern with it? My husband has a class to teach in Chesterfield and I have a commitment in Hannibal tonight. I want to plan accordingly and cancel if there's a big risk of freezing rain. Thanks!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2019 11:30:19 GMT -6
I may post some rough number ranges later today....an over/under map centered on 4"....those who may get more than 4" and those who may get less than 4" Just curious... Will one of those 4"+ be in BRTN area and the other more coming up around Rolla with STL in the minimal area? Union will get zero ;-) |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 11:42:17 GMT -6
Just curious... Will one of those 4"+ be in BRTN area and the other more coming up around Rolla with STL in the minimal area? Union will get zero ;-) I don’t know if that can be said anymore. They are having a hell of a winter not to mention we’ve obliterated all the rules to Chris’ Corner this season so anything is possible lol. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 11:42:25 GMT -6
Chris, I haven't seen much mentioned regarding this evening's WWA...is there not much of a concern with it? My husband has a class to teach in Chesterfield and I have a commitment in Hannibal tonight. I want to plan accordingly and cancel if there's a big risk of freezing rain. Thanks! Honestly I'm really not that concerned about it for anything South of Bowling Green over to about Litchfield. |
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280
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Post by snowcat on Jan 16, 2019 11:55:16 GMT -6
Chris, I haven't seen much mentioned regarding this evening's WWA...is there not much of a concern with it? My husband has a class to teach in Chesterfield and I have a commitment in Hannibal tonight. I want to plan accordingly and cancel if there's a big risk of freezing rain. Thanks! Honestly I'm really not that concerned about it for anything South of Bowling Green over to about Litchfield. Ok, thank you. I try not to ask IMBY questions and just carefully read in here, but I was a little worried. I'm very nervous about driving on ice, as I had a bad accident driving in freezing rain when I was a teen. Thanks, again! |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 16, 2019 11:55:29 GMT -6
Starting to get really foggy along Bluff road, Columbia IL, along river.   |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 16, 2019 12:00:21 GMT -6
We should start to see the models wrap this system up here in the next few runs.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 12:02:44 GMT -6
We should start to see the models wrap this system up here in the next few runs. I could see that happening with the ridge on the backside weakening these last several runs. The GEFS continues to look good for much of the area |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 12:11:28 GMT -6
Euro is south
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 12:12:46 GMT -6
Still waiting on some charts, but the euro looks colder with a quick changeover to snow and a pretty big hit along 44 into the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 12:17:16 GMT -6
Ya Euro is a BIG hit for the metro...almost a foot of snow
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 12:17:54 GMT -6
It looks really good, I like the colder solution
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 16, 2019 12:20:14 GMT -6
Ya Euro is a BIG hit for the metro...almost a foot of snow Is it still showing very strong winds as well? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 12:23:57 GMT -6
Ya Euro is a BIG hit for the metro...almost a foot of snow Is it still showing very strong winds as well? It has winds gusting to 30-40mph during the snow. Certainly near B word conditions with how heavy it has the snow falling |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 12:26:28 GMT -6
Still waiting on some charts, but the euro looks colder with a quick changeover to snow and a pretty big hit along 44 into the metro Starting to see a trend of a focused area of strong evap/dynamic cooling on the leading edge along the river. Some runs crash the h85 0* isotherm close to the Metro and hover it there for several hours before steadily shifting S/SE as stronger CAA insues. |
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Post by sullivandave on Jan 16, 2019 12:28:07 GMT -6
What's the timeline look like for the precip to change over??
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 16, 2019 12:32:39 GMT -6
So... now the EURO is the outlier?
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 12:34:08 GMT -6
Yep.. Euro has a solid 6-12" for every where from a line of Rolla to Vandalia, IL and north.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 12:36:09 GMT -6
So... now the EURO is the outlier? I wouldn't call it an outlier, just another possible solution. Its ensembles will be interesting.
The GEFS members have quite a bit of support for the euro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 12:46:41 GMT -6
I know we don't care about the Northeast on here, but this is the second run in a row where the euro drops a scary amount of freezing rain from NYC to Boston. Not just a quarter or half inch, but almost 2" of freezing rain. And in Bostons case they then get 1-2 feet of snow on top of that
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2019 12:49:22 GMT -6
Still waiting on some charts, but the euro looks colder with a quick changeover to snow and a pretty big hit along 44 into the metro Starting to see a trend of a focused area of strong evap/dynamic cooling on the leading edge along the river. Some runs crash the h85 0* isotherm close to the Metro and hover it there for several hours before steadily shifting S/SE as stronger CAA insues. thats believable. That happens alot here where the 0 isotherm gets hung for a period of time |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 16, 2019 12:56:10 GMT -6
Honestly I'm really not that concerned about it for anything South of Bowling Green over to about Litchfield. Ok, thank you. I try not to ask IMBY questions and just carefully read in here, but I was a little worried. I'm very nervous about driving on ice, as I had a bad accident driving in freezing rain when I was a teen. Thanks, again! I don't think anyone can get “good“ at driving on ice. Even with tire chains there's only a minimal amount of friction with the road. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2019 13:00:36 GMT -6
Euro also shows that storm entering the picture around Tuesday or Wednesday next week as well.
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280
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Post by snowcat on Jan 16, 2019 13:12:23 GMT -6
Ok, thank you. I try not to ask IMBY questions and just carefully read in here, but I was a little worried. I'm very nervous about driving on ice, as I had a bad accident driving in freezing rain when I was a teen. Thanks, again! I don't think anyone can get “good“ at driving on ice. Even with tire chains there's only a minimal amount of friction with the road. Very true. I know to take it as slowly and carefully as I can if need be, but it's the other drivers I worry more about now. That's even in good weather, lol. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 13:12:56 GMT -6
I really like where we sit right now...modeling continues to cluster with the h85/SLP tracks through the favored benchmarks for heavy snow across the area. And there's still potential for a narrow zone of icing near the changeover. I think the likelihood for another warning level event is pretty high now.
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Post by weatherj on Jan 16, 2019 13:18:03 GMT -6
I really like where we sit right now...modeling continues to cluster with the h85/SLP tracks through the favored benchmarks for heavy snow across the area. And there's still potential for a narrow zone of icing near the changeover. I think the likelihood for another warning level event is pretty high now. I'm probably a bit S/E of the aforementioned area, but close enough to get in on some of the action as well. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 13:19:55 GMT -6
I agree BRTN. It seems like the models are slowly narrowing in on roughly 44 in Mo and 70 in Illinois as the "jackpot" zone
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 16, 2019 13:19:59 GMT -6
Just need about a 30 mile shift south lol
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