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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 13:26:47 GMT -6
EPS continues to shift south
Now has 5-7" in the metro as the mean
Northern counties are now the max band in the 7-8" range
Southern counties are in the 2-3" range
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 16, 2019 13:31:12 GMT -6
I’m glad Festus is considered metro! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! Sing with me!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 13:32:08 GMT -6
Just need about a 30 mile shift south lol When don't we haha. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 13:35:46 GMT -6
Probability time
These are just for the metro
Chance for an inch is 90-99.9%
Chance for 3" is 70-90%
Chance for 6" is 30-50%
The highest probs are just north of the metro where they max out at a 70% chance for 6"
Across the southern and SE counties the probs are less, but not horrible
Last 3 EPS runs has kept the highest totals shifting south
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 13:40:03 GMT -6
It's interesting that models are slowly shifting south despite the ridge trending weaker...seems to be due to stronger digging and slower ejection allowing the N stream shortwave to come across and flatten the flow over the Lakes. That's a good trend, IMO.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 16, 2019 13:42:55 GMT -6
Agree... that flow over the lakes is key.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 13:45:54 GMT -6
Euro has anchored a 1040 high around Fargo, ND the last few runs as the system ejects and moves eastward. That seems like a pretty good spot for us
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Post by RyanD on Jan 16, 2019 13:55:28 GMT -6
Snowstorm, how does the EPS look for my area (Waterloo). I'm not much south of you in Arnold. Thinking Waterloo isn't too bad?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2019 14:00:06 GMT -6
From CIPS 20070213 and 20131214 are the best matches. Both of these produced decent snowfall for the area.
In general matches are much better with this storm using their objective scoring than with the last weekend's storm. Last weekend's storm was a bit of an oddity.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 14:05:26 GMT -6
Snowstorm, how does the EPS look for my area (Waterloo). I'm not much south of you in Arnold. Thinking Waterloo isn't too bad? On the operational Euro run you still get like 6" and the EPS mean has you right around 4"
I still wouldn't get to worried about specifics yet. The models are still trying to reel this one in and its putting up a good fight. The trends are good though
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Post by sullivandave on Jan 16, 2019 14:10:36 GMT -6
Hello all, just remember I am a weenie, I may have silly questions at times, but I'm trying to learn. I realize we're inside the 72 hr window for models. But what kind of timeline are they showing? Still freezing rain changing to snow around rush hour?? I'd hope the lessons were learned last week, but we know how that goes. Btw, I love reading this forum, you all have great insight and perspective.... thank you.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 16, 2019 14:20:46 GMT -6
What is the timing of this event? Friday rain then changing to......at what time? Thanks Craig
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Post by RyanD on Jan 16, 2019 14:23:04 GMT -6
Snowstorm, how does the EPS look for my area (Waterloo). I'm not much south of you in Arnold. Thinking Waterloo isn't too bad? On the operational Euro run you still get like 6" and the EPS mean has you right around 4"
I still wouldn't get to worried about specifics yet. The models are still trying to reel this one in and its putting up a good fight. The trends are good though
agreed! Just wanted to get a feel for a ballpark idea that's all! THANKS! |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 14:23:13 GMT -6
Hello all, just remember I am a weenie, I may have silly questions at times, but I'm trying to learn. I realize we're inside the 72 hr window for models. But what kind of timeline are they showing? Still freezing rain changing to snow around rush hour?? I'd hope the lessons were learned last week, but we know how that goes. Btw, I love reading this forum, you all have great insight and perspective.... thank you. Pray tell, exactly what lessons should have been learned by who? |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 16, 2019 14:31:45 GMT -6
Some folks learn lessons easier than others.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 14:41:48 GMT -6
I remember a sure fire disastrous ice storm headed up 44 several years ago. My wife was working downtown. I was freaking and telling her to sound the alarm to get whoever to close the rather large law office. They waited longer than I thought prudent finally did. It was mostly sleet and pretty much a nuisance, no more. She told me to NEVER do that again as it made her look bad.
Couple of years ago we had the awful freezing drizzle event from hell. A few days later we had a zr event and everybody shut down. Wasn't even close to being as bad. I went to work that day, one of two drivers to show up, and delivered with little problem.
We will probably react "properly" if this one looks even close. False alarm and.........as time passes with more false alarms......
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 16, 2019 14:45:41 GMT -6
Hello all, just remember I am a weenie, I may have silly questions at times, but I'm trying to learn. I realize we're inside the 72 hr window for models. But what kind of timeline are they showing? Still freezing rain changing to snow around rush hour?? I'd hope the lessons were learned last week, but we know how that goes. Btw, I love reading this forum, you all have great insight and perspective.... thank you. Pray tell, exactly what lessons should have been learned by who? <iframe width="28.460000000000036" height="6" style="position: absolute; width: 28.460000000000036px; height: 6px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_99135134" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="28.460000000000036" height="6" style="position: absolute; width: 28.46px; height: 6px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1358px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_66780492" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="28.460000000000036" height="6" style="position: absolute; width: 28.46px; height: 6px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 238px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_63044464" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="28.460000000000036" height="6" style="position: absolute; width: 28.46px; height: 6px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1358px; top: 238px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_22861816" scrolling="no"></iframe> MODOT is going to be more aggressive in its pre-storm messages |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 14:46:25 GMT -6
I mean really folks, did anybody even imagine the I-44 shut down Friday? Not really.
When we had that disasterous freezing drizzle event there were very few here that even appreciated it and I remember BRTN alerting us all to it.
As inconsistent and Goofy as our winter weather is don't ever expect all lessons to be learned
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 14:50:22 GMT -6
That nam is concerning given its track record this year.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2019 14:50:23 GMT -6
Cpc still has a heavy snow hazard for this weekend along and north of 70 as part of a large area that includes the new england states...and cold temps in the hazard outlook as well 6 to 10 says colder and wetter than normal (enhanced odds)
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 14:52:05 GMT -6
That nam is concerning given its track record this year. Pretty typical bias of it to be north at this range. It did the same thing last system at this range. It still has yet to have consecutive runs that look similar. It’s still searching |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 14:58:31 GMT -6
And the crazy thing about that freezing drizzle of that was that was not even considered a warning event. Oh boy. Easily one of the worst driving days in St Louis history
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stormspotter63640
Junior Forecaster
Farmington MO
Posts: 273
Snowfall Events: 11/21/15. First flurries!!!
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Post by stormspotter63640 on Jan 16, 2019 14:58:31 GMT -6
That nam is concerning given its track record this year. . We southerners sitting this one out? |
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Post by sullivandave on Jan 16, 2019 15:00:48 GMT -6
Honestly I was referring to drivers and MODOT.... I would hope drivers would need warnings and plan accordingly... and MODOT, while I appreciate the work they do, I think they could have performed a little better.... and I realize traffic volume affected that.... maybe I'm rambling now, sorry...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 15:01:54 GMT -6
That nam is concerning given its track record this year. . We southerners sitting this one out? I was ready to say that yesterday but most models keep us in the game for at least a couple inches. Don't get too excited though. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 15:05:28 GMT -6
Honestly I was referring to drivers and MODOT.... I would hope drivers would need warnings and plan accordingly... and MODOT, while I appreciate the work they do, I think they could have performed a little better.... and I realize traffic volume affected that.... maybe I'm rambling now, sorry... You get an event like that at rush hour at those temperatures don't expect good things to happen. Most people don't even know the worst temperatures to get snow is between 29 and 32 degrees. If the pavement is cold enough it's likes trying to drive on soap. You get a rush hour situation where people have to come to a stop like they do in rush hours and you have an incline you can forget about it. If you don't have 4-wheel drive you're not going to get up that hill anymore. I've seen that happen on very slight inclines with snow. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jan 16, 2019 15:06:26 GMT -6
I mean really folks, did anybody even imagine the I-44 shut down Friday? Not really. When we had that disasterous freezing drizzle event there were very few here that even appreciated it and I remember BRTN alerting us all to it. As inconsistent and Goofy as our winter weather is don't ever expect all lessons to be learned One lesson everyone can learn is to have a full tank of gas, winter supplies, food & water in your vehicle. I know its not possible for everyone to leave work early, but if it is possible, go for it. I also try to avoid major highways as much as possible, again, not possible in most cases. The shear volume of cars on the highways at any given time, much less the rush (2-3) hours would make 1-2" per hour of snow impossible for the DOTs to keep up with. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 15:10:37 GMT -6
I mean really folks, did anybody even imagine the I-44 shut down Friday? Not really. When we had that disasterous freezing drizzle event there were very few here that even appreciated it and I remember BRTN alerting us all to it. As inconsistent and Goofy as our winter weather is don't ever expect all lessons to be learned One lesson everyone can learn is to have a full tank of gas, winter supplies, food & water in your vehicle. I know its not possible for everyone to leave work early, but if it is possible, go for it. I also try to avoid major highways as much as possible, again, not possible in most cases. The shear volume of cars on the highways at any given time, much less the rush (2-3) hours would make 1-2" per hour of snow impossible for the DOTs to keep up with. Those are the important ones. You are at the mercy have every other driver if you're out there. On that Friday I drove along I-64 as long as I thought was prudent. I got off thinking I made the right choice. I got behind some idiot going 15 miles an hour on Route 15 and if we would have had some sort of incline we would have all been screwed at that kind of speed. Like you said, prepare for the worst because you never know who you are going to be behind. I probably driven well over a million miles professionally in my life. When it comes to snow my biggest fear is who do I end up behind. I can handle it by myself no matter how bad it gets. You know the biggest reason not to follow somebody too closely on a two-lane highway when it's snowing? What if they make a left hand turn and you have to come to a complete stop? There's no guarantee you'll get going again if you don't have 4-wheel drive. That's how tricky it gets and what people don't appreciate. You want to stay far enough behind them that you never have to come to a complete stop and that's a long way behind them. |
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Post by Kathy Walker - Fredericktown on Jan 16, 2019 15:17:46 GMT -6
That nam is concerning given its track record this year. . We southerners sitting this one out? I've been sitting out for quite a while. We've had some real disappointing stinker of storms down here. And then last weekend's storm STUNK!!!! for my town. Only in Fredericktown can I go measure about 2" inches of snow around 11pm, only to wake up in the morning and seeing it shrink in size by the hour to near nothing by dinner time. |
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Jan 16, 2019 15:25:00 GMT -6
. We southerners sitting this one out? I've been sitting out for quite a while. We've had some real disappointing stinker of storms down here. And then last weekend's storm STUNK!!!! for my town. Only in Fredericktown can I go measure about 2" inches of snow around 11pm, only to wake up in the morning and seeing it shrink in size by the hour to near nothing by dinner time. ... and what's crazy is that 10 miles north and a couple hundred feet higher in elevation, we probably had about 4" or so at 11PM. I could see a appreciable difference between home and Fredericktown at 5:30 AM Saturday morning. |
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