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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 15:26:14 GMT -6
18Z ICON not quite as epic as 12Z, but still a decent hit for the metro and fairly similar setup. Looks like the ICON might be close if not locking on to a solution.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 16, 2019 15:29:50 GMT -6
Where is WSC? Is he letting his job interfere with giving us his map translations?
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Post by Kathy Walker - Fredericktown on Jan 16, 2019 15:31:20 GMT -6
I've been sitting out for quite a while. We've had some real disappointing stinker of storms down here. And then last weekend's storm STUNK!!!! for my town. Only in Fredericktown can I go measure about 2" inches of snow around 11pm, only to wake up in the morning and seeing it shrink in size by the hour to near nothing by dinner time. ... and what's crazy is that 10 miles north and a couple hundred feet higher in elevation, we probably had about 4" or so at 11PM. I could see a appreciable difference between home and Fredericktown at 5:30 AM Saturday morning. So YOU took all the extra snow from all of us wee little town's people? Hmmmm?  |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 15:32:27 GMT -6
I got a lot of techniques about driving while it's snowing very heavily that I use. I got zero techniques for driving in freezing drizzle like we had that one time. I am so glad I only caught the edge of that, that day.
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Post by yypc on Jan 16, 2019 15:33:58 GMT -6
TWC just completely pulled any accumulation for us. Looking at 0" until you get all the way over into New York. They have most of the snow sticking in South Dakota.
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 16, 2019 15:34:36 GMT -6
TWC just completely pulled any accumulation for us. Looking at 0" until you get all the way over into New York. They have most of the snow sticking in South Dakota. Then lock in major accumulations! |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 15:41:07 GMT -6
TWC just completely pulled any accumulation for us. Looking at 0" until you get all the way over into New York. They have most of the snow sticking in South Dakota. Best news all day folks! |
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Post by mosue56 on Jan 16, 2019 15:51:42 GMT -6
I am waiting to see what Chris says!
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 15:52:40 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 15:54:24 GMT -6
Ok... I went with 3" for my over/under at this point. Using a poor-man's composite of the Euro/Fv3/GEM for the storm tracks...and solid assist from the GEFS, EPS and CIPS analogs... this is my first guess (and it is a guess) at this stage of the game. I'm not even sure I'm ready to drop this on facebook to the general public yet... but here goes...  |
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Mirror Mirror
Wishcaster
Wentzville, MO
Posts: 161 
Snowfall Events: 2013-14 - Est. Total 25.8"
2014-15 - Est. Total 14.5"
2015-18 - Did it snow?
2018-19 - 22.2" (so far)
Jan 13 2019 - 12.0"
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Post by Mirror Mirror on Jan 16, 2019 15:59:33 GMT -6
Ok... I went with 3" for my over/under at this point. Using a poor-man's composite of the Euro/Fv3/GEM for the storm tracks...and solid assist from the GEFS, EPS and CIPS analogs... this is my first guess (and it is a guess) at this stage of the game. I'm not even sure I'm ready to drop this on facebook to the general public yet... but here goes... Keep the Facebook hysteria at bay for now..... |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 16, 2019 16:01:18 GMT -6
Ain’t nobody got a clue even about tonight. Models don’t have a clue. Glad I’m not having to message any of this to the general public
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 16:01:42 GMT -6
Even though we’re getting pretty close to the event, I still think using the ensembles is the best route right now. Theres just to much variability and noise in individual deterministic runs. I think the 12z runs tomorrow will start to get some good sampling of the actual energy. So until then I’m leaning heavy on the EPS and GEFS
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 16:05:03 GMT -6
I like the trend the GFS has been showing. It’s showing a system that is digging and wrapping up more
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 16:08:13 GMT -6
Even though we’re getting pretty close to the event, I still think using the ensembles is the best route right now. Theres just to much variability and noise in individual deterministic runs. I think the 12z runs tomorrow will start to get some good sampling of the actual energy. So until then I’m leaning heavy on the EPS and GEFS A blend of the 12z EPS/GEFS is a beauty at that... |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 16:12:49 GMT -6
Guys the backyard questions are quite ridiculous.
I wouldnt get any hopes up. Except snow will fly.
We are guaranteed of that.
And that's about it.
And we probably won't know more until it's happening
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 16:16:13 GMT -6
Even though we’re getting pretty close to the event, I still think using the ensembles is the best route right now. Theres just to much variability and noise in individual deterministic runs. I think the 12z runs tomorrow will start to get some good sampling of the actual energy. So until then I’m leaning heavy on the EPS and GEFS The 12km nam has an octopus worth of vorticity lobes spiraling all over the place. Ridiculous I personally just want to see some really good powder I love to get snow on the back in get like a half an inch to an inch of water snow down and then like two to three more inches of just powder. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 16:30:37 GMT -6
The NAM is all over the place...at least the GFS seems like it's getting it's act together finally.
It's not all that surprising that the NAM is unstable considering that both the primary shortwaves which are involved are still out of it's domain.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2019 16:31:31 GMT -6
Funny how the talk was the brutal cold, likely sub 0 and now the forecast doesn't even have single digits. Nothing out of the ordinary.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2019 16:35:49 GMT -6
Funny how the talk was the brutal cold, likely sub 0 and now the forecast doesn't even have single digits. Nothing out of the ordinary. I could do without the 0. The moderate temps bode well with snow chances and it is still looking like a big february, imo. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 16:41:12 GMT -6
Looks like this will be in the day as well which will be nice.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 16, 2019 16:42:58 GMT -6
'The NAM is outside it's window of reliability'...
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 16, 2019 16:48:33 GMT -6
Funny how the talk was the brutal cold, likely sub 0 and now the forecast doesn't even have single digits. Nothing out of the ordinary. I could do without the 0. The moderate temps bode well with snow chances and it is still looking like a big february, imo. How are you thinking it bodes well? The storm system for midweek was going to be an all snow-maker, but now with warmer temps complicated once again with rain and snow. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 16, 2019 17:06:06 GMT -6
Holy moly. The WPC now has the low approaching Little Rock moving a little north of due east at 6 a.m. on Saturday with the pressure dropping
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 17:25:15 GMT -6
Where is WSC? Is he letting his job interfere with giving us his map translations? My day job was extra busy today and everyone seemed to have things under control lol. Didn't even have time to eat. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 17:38:06 GMT -6
I'll take the 18Z FV3-GFS for 1000 Alex!
Rolling with that Belleville Epicness. Almost everyone get's a fair share however.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 16, 2019 17:41:47 GMT -6
18Z GEFS pulls us into the 1.25" QPF club looks like at least half of it is falling in temps at or below 32*F.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 18:07:42 GMT -6
I'd love to see the 00z models come in with a slightly STRONGER backside jet digging the vorticity at the bottom of the trough a little more.
It's starting to look to me like the Southerners will get an 1" or less with the deformation zone running up 44/64 and North.
Or there is a wedge between 70/44 on the MO side where the front in is North of 70 and the Deformation is ALONG AND south of 44/64
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2019 18:19:14 GMT -6
After removing one of the duds and the high outlier the SREF is at about 3".
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jan 16, 2019 18:20:46 GMT -6
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