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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 20:16:15 GMT -6
Can't remember how to post pics in here but the 18Z GEFS Mean has a strong signal for the deformation axis to align with I-44 through the metro and into Illinois. This also aligns with the latest CIPS Analog snowfall mean. Certainly has a lot of potential and will keep us busy! Very much agree...h85 track is through Carbondale which is pretty much the 44/70 benchmark. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 16, 2019 20:17:25 GMT -6
Also...I've been racking my brain and I can't think of one single instance of two major snowstorms hitting our region within a week.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 20:17:27 GMT -6
Whoa! Channel sore is puting 8-12 on STL! Seen that someone shared on FB. That’s a hell of a risky move if you ask me. Still a ton of time to go at this stage with what I’m sure will still be a roller coaster for us here. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 16, 2019 20:17:35 GMT -6
Can't remember how to post pics in here but the 18Z GEFS Mean has a strong signal for the deformation axis to align with I-44 through the metro and into Illinois. This also aligns with the latest CIPS Analog snowfall mean. Certainly has a lot of potential and will keep us busy! Welcome back FISH. The band is finally all back together again. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 20:20:34 GMT -6
Man it sure would have been nice. To have a recruiting Arctic air mass in place in front of the storm.
we have like enough leeway and we could have had a profile cold enough for snow all the way to Southern Missouri.
And it have very little effect on the actual tracking of this event.
There is no reason other than the fact that the next cold front come through doesn't penetrate for crap.
Now the needle to be threaded that would get the front end of the storm to be sleet or snow over the northern two-thirds of the metro is a really really tight gradient.
For most of us our best bet is for a weaker first couple pieces of energy and for a stronger back side jet.
So there is better vorticity that gets pulled around the bottom of the mid-level Trough.
Some of the models are closing this system off we needed to come in a little bit stronger dig a little bit more closeoff over Central Texas.
Then slowly heading east-northeast.
Once this system it really starts to organize the mid-levels temps will crash North to South.
Obviously none of us know what's going to happen I would say no matter what the model show in the matter what the national weather service forecast is
Don't get your hopes up.
If we don't see a better mid-level organized circulation assisting crosses the Mississippi.
then the backside is going to be more of like and elongated frontal forcing situation.
Instead of a normal deformation like situation.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 20:23:34 GMT -6
Also...I've been racking my brain and I can't think of one single instance of two major snowstorms hitting our region within a week. That would be February 15th and February 24th 1993. Although one of them went straight through the entire metro the other one was more centered on the Southeast half of the metro. but if I recall correctly St Louis posted 20 in between the two storm. They unlike this current forecast had a polar antedecent air mass both times. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2019 20:29:55 GMT -6
Nam is colder
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Post by GlendaleWxGuy on Jan 16, 2019 20:30:02 GMT -6
Whoa! Channel sore is puting 8-12 on STL!  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 20:32:39 GMT -6
I don't know. It's out to hr57 with no frozen in the immediate metro. It's positively tilted and the mid level jet is to far to the front. It's probably going to give us about nothing |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 20:33:08 GMT -6
Still looks pretty sheared out though
I think in typical NAM fashion it will take until the energy comes ashore before it catches on
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 16, 2019 20:34:17 GMT -6
Ya the nam sucks but it's the nam now against everything else
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 20:34:47 GMT -6
8-12 when the nam could easily be correct
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 16, 2019 20:35:12 GMT -6
Fish thank you for all you do. No thanks needed. This is my job and I love what I do. No joke intended, aren’t you nor getting paid for your job right now? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 20:37:16 GMT -6
NAM is about the worst case scenario right now
Just a disorganized open wave that dosent do a whole lot
Not buying it for one second with the way the GEFS and EPS are trending
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Post by ams3389 on Jan 16, 2019 20:37:25 GMT -6
Where was the map of 8-12!? I haven’t seen that anywhere. Whoa! Channel sore is puting 8-12 on STL! |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 16, 2019 20:38:39 GMT -6
Where was the map of 8-12!? I haven’t seen that anywhere. I seen it on FB. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 20:39:58 GMT -6
Looks like that 8-12 map was from a week ago.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 16, 2019 20:40:45 GMT -6
Looks like that 8-12 map was from a week ago. I was thinking the same thing. When I clicked the link it went to their page and wasnt there. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 20:43:20 GMT -6
I can't imagine throwing 8-12 out.
We can't go around saying how great the nam has been this season and then throw it out when we dont like it lol.
It goes into the pile, but can be weighted less than the more reliable Euro.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 16, 2019 20:45:00 GMT -6
The last couple of days I saw not only the other channels map from last week but also Fox’s being shared again. People don’t read or click things anymore. I’ve been commenting on the ones I see but it’s out of hand as usual.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 16, 2019 20:45:22 GMT -6
Wasn’t FISH the one who coined the phrase “You’re going to need a bigger box” after someone said they were going to catch the snow in a box to measure it with a 12” ruler?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2019 20:45:56 GMT -6
The 8 to 12 was from last week. I saw it on fb and told the person who posted to take it down . No. Hannel is going to put a map like that out this far away. Think people. Lol
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 20:48:03 GMT -6
I can't imagine throwing 8-12 out. We can't go around saying how great the nam has been this season and then throw it out when we dont like it lol. It goes into the pile, but can be weighted less than the more reliable Euro. Im certainly not throwing the NAM out, its solution has as much weight as any model. But I have no reason to believe its the correct solution when you look at how the Euro, EPS, GEFS, and FV3 are trending. Just my 2 cents |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 20:48:37 GMT -6
Looks like that 8-12 map was from a week ago. I was thinking the same thing. When I clicked the link it went to their page and wasnt there. I thought it was fake until I clicked the link and it was in fact their website that brought you to their updated forecast sponsored by them. If they didn’t mean to use that map I’d not be happy if I was one of the Mets to try and put out that fire if it doesn’t verify. |
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Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 16, 2019 20:52:45 GMT -6
On their app, they say amounts are unknown right now due to the differences in models.
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Post by ams3389 on Jan 16, 2019 20:54:07 GMT -6
Yikes. I assumed old. Sadly people don’t read. I try to calm folks down but then I’m the bad guy and don’t know what I’m talking about. I’m glad Chris puts time stamps on his maps. I don’t think we ever got an update from him tonight on weekend storm. We shall see how the trends are in the AM. I was thinking the same thing. When I clicked the link it went to their page and wasnt there. I thought it was fake until I clicked the link and it was in fact their website that brought you to their updated forecast sponsored by them. If they didn’t mean to use that map I’d not be happy if I was one of the Mets to try and put out that fire if it doesn’t verify. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 20:59:51 GMT -6
I can't imagine throwing 8-12 out. We can't go around saying how great the nam has been this season and then throw it out when we dont like it lol. It goes into the pile, but can be weighted less than the more reliable Euro. Im certainly not throwing the NAM out, its solution has as much weight as any model. But I have no reason to believe its the correct solution when you look at how the Euro, EPS, GEFS, and FV3 are trending. Just my 2 cents I say it's the #1 model ever thanks to its persistent lake effect snow off Lake Michigan lol. In all seriousness, I might be leaning Canadian with this storm. Its 18z run made a lot of sense to me. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 21:03:23 GMT -6
Yikes. I assumed old. Sadly people don’t read. I try to calm folks down but then I’m the bad guy and don’t know what I’m talking about. I’m glad Chris puts time stamps on his maps. I don’t think we ever got an update from him tonight on weekend storm. We shall see how the trends are in the AM. I thought it was fake until I clicked the link and it was in fact their website that brought you to their updated forecast sponsored by them. If they didn’t mean to use that map I’d not be happy if I was one of the Mets to try and put out that fire if it doesn’t verify. He puts time stamps on his map because the very same thing happened to him. There an old map that seems to pop of every year except the year we broke all the rules of a large area getting 10” and the public takes it a runs with it. Pretty sure that was what started the time stamps. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 21:04:25 GMT -6
Im certainly not throwing the NAM out, its solution has as much weight as any model. But I have no reason to believe its the correct solution when you look at how the Euro, EPS, GEFS, and FV3 are trending. Just my 2 cents I say it's the #1 model ever thanks to its persistent lake effect snow off Lake Michigan lol. In all seriousness, I might be leaning Canadian with this storm. Its 18z run made a lot of sense to me. Ive noticed even the EPS is picking up on that lake effect band right through Chicago. Hell, this whole system could miss you to the south and you still could pick up several inches from that lake band alone lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 21:09:45 GMT -6
00z rgem is cold.
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