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Post by TK on Jan 16, 2019 21:18:35 GMT -6
Man - Maybe I am just clueless but this is crazy - I see North then South, Rain, freezing rain, sleet, heavy snow, little snow, East, West 8-12, 2-3 then, 3-5, under 4,over 4,near blizzard conditions,arctic blast then not so cold....Is it just me or am I just lost right now?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 16, 2019 21:20:27 GMT -6
lol...any maps showing 8 to 12 are either old or fake. easy to check. kmov has no maps on their website, and their narrative says some isolated spots could get 6 inches.
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Post by ams3389 on Jan 16, 2019 21:21:32 GMT -6
Oh I remember sadly.. Yikes. I assumed old. Sadly people don’t read. I try to calm folks down but then I’m the bad guy and don’t know what I’m talking about. I’m glad Chris puts time stamps on his maps. I don’t think we ever got an update from him tonight on weekend storm. We shall see how the trends are in the AM. He puts time stamps on his map because the very same thing happened to him. There an old map that seems to pop of every year except the year we broke all the rules of a large area getting 10” and the public takes it a runs with it. Pretty sure that was what started the time stamps. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 16, 2019 21:21:44 GMT -6
lol...any maps showing 8 to 12 are either old or fake. easy to check. ! station that is 2x2 ! has no maps on their website, and their narrative says some isolated spots could get 6 inches. Click bait... |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 16, 2019 21:24:40 GMT -6
lol...any maps showing 8 to 12 are either old or fake. easy to check. ! station that is 2x2 ! has no maps on their website, and their narrative says some isolated spots could get 6 inches. Click bait... That’s what I’m saying too because it is done and promoted by them. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 16, 2019 21:29:01 GMT -6
00z Icon sweeps a band of what looks like very heavy snow along and south of I-44. Wonder why the nam isn't picking up on this.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 21:32:45 GMT -6
00z Icon sweeps a band of what looks like very heavy snow along and south of I-44. Wonder why the nam isn't picking up on this. The closed 500mb vort might have something to do with it. The nam is shredded by then. |
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Post by TK on Jan 16, 2019 21:33:41 GMT -6
Winter Storm Harper is his/her name for our weekend storm
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 21:42:41 GMT -6
Winter Storm Harper is his/her name for our weekend storm Where it hits, he signs... Best be a big St. Louis storm then. |
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Post by RyanD on Jan 16, 2019 21:44:30 GMT -6
Also...I've been racking my brain and I can't think of one single instance of two major snowstorms hitting our region within a week. That would be February 15th and February 24th 1993. Although one of them went straight through the entire metro the other one was more centered on the Southeast half of the metro. but if I recall correctly St Louis posted 20 in between the two storm. They unlike this current forecast had a polar antedecent air mass both times. Yep! In Red Bud I saw 11" and 13" from those two storms! It was amazing! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 21:46:34 GMT -6
That would be February 15th and February 24th 1993. Although one of them went straight through the entire metro the other one was more centered on the Southeast half of the metro. but if I recall correctly St Louis posted 20 in between the two storm. They unlike this current forecast had a polar antedecent air mass both times. Yep! In Red Bud I saw 11" and 13" from those two storms! It was amazing! If you count Columbia, then they had 3 huge storms including the Groundhog Day storm. The third one ended in rain after like 8 inches of snow, but the other two were massive. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 16, 2019 21:52:17 GMT -6
The mess coming in tonight might want to dig a little, or it won’t do much of anything south of I72, maybe even I74
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Post by WeatherGuyRyan on Jan 16, 2019 21:54:25 GMT -6
Several friends have shared that 2x2 forecast without actually reading the page. The 2x2 has the current forecast, but using last week’s snowfall amounts. Wow 😮
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Post by TK on Jan 16, 2019 21:54:42 GMT -6
Yep! In Red Bud I saw 11" and 13" from those two storms! It was amazing! If you count Columbia, then they had 3 huge storms including the Groundhog Day storm. The third one ended in rain after like 8 inches of snow, but the other two were massive. How the heck do you guys remember those storms? I can't remember where I park my car at the grocery store.... - The only ones I specifically remember is '82 and Sleetaromma/could have been a blizzard....One epic and one a major disappointment... |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 21:57:41 GMT -6
The GFS is a complete swing and a miss.
The front end is trending weaker and Warmer on every model so far.
The Icon smokes along and SE of 44/64 but is a kiss for the i70 corridor.
The NAM is also a miss.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 21:59:10 GMT -6
The GFS is a complete swing and a miss. The front end is trending weaker and Warmer on every model so far. The Icon smokes along and SE of 44/64 but is a kiss for the i70 corridor. The NAM is also a miss. Gem might be slightly better, but is quite temp dependent and mainly along the 70 corridor. It's the euro vs. The world. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 21:59:32 GMT -6
If you count Columbia, then they had 3 huge storms including the Groundhog Day storm. The third one ended in rain after like 8 inches of snow, but the other two were massive. How the heck do you guys remember those storms? I can't remember where I park my car at the grocery store.... - The only ones I r\specifically remember is '82 and Sleetaromma/could have been a blizzard....One epic and one a major disappointment... Because they are in the top 10 biggest in my lifetime. I was born Sept 21 1982. I was born a few weeks premature. I was concieved during the 1982 storm. |
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Post by tedrick65 on Jan 16, 2019 22:01:25 GMT -6
00z Icon sweeps a band of what looks like very heavy snow along and south of I-44. Wonder why the nam isn't picking up on this. It lacks German precision...kind of like razor blades...we need to buy the factory. |
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Post by TK on Jan 16, 2019 22:02:30 GMT -6
The GFS is a complete swing and a miss. The front end is trending weaker and Warmer on every model so far. The Icon smokes along and SE of 44/64 but is a kiss for the i70 corridor. The NAM is also a miss. Hey Friv - It appears other models are now trending away from a major storm. Do you agree and if not what are your thoughts? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 22:03:40 GMT -6
Upon further examination, the ggem is great from St. Louis on north. Sharp cutoff to nothing, but 6-10 inches in the aforementioned zone.
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 16, 2019 22:03:52 GMT -6
How the heck do you guys remember those storms? I can't remember where I park my car at the grocery store.... - The only ones I r\specifically remember is '82 and Sleetaromma/could have been a blizzard....One epic and one a major disappointment... Because they are in the top 10 biggest in my lifetime. I was born Sept 21 1982. I was born a few weeks premature. I was concieved during the 1982 storm. Me too friv. Musta been cold. Lol |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 22:04:20 GMT -6
The GFS is a complete swing and a miss. The front end is trending weaker and Warmer on every model so far. The Icon smokes along and SE of 44/64 but is a kiss for the i70 corridor. The NAM is also a miss. Gem might be slightly better, but is quite temp dependent and mainly along the 70 corridor. It's the euro vs. The world. It's cold enough. It has what the Icon has but centered along 70/64. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 22:05:30 GMT -6
The GFS is a complete swing and a miss. The front end is trending weaker and Warmer on every model so far. The Icon smokes along and SE of 44/64 but is a kiss for the i70 corridor. The NAM is also a miss. Hey Friv - It appears other models are now trending away from a major storm. Do you agree and if not what are your thoughts? Don't get your hopes up. It's nowhere like the last storm was. This is dependent on a deformation zone in a system that's not phasing that neutrally tilted. All I can say is very huge bust potential here for us literally getting an inch of light snow. But on the flipside there's a pretty growing signal that something on the lines of say 3-6 in will fall in the heart of the metro. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 22:06:21 GMT -6
Because they are in the top 10 biggest in my lifetime. I was born Sept 21 1982. I was born a few weeks premature. I was concieved during the 1982 storm. Me too friv. Musta been cold. Lol Must be fate. To be so moved by the weather |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 22:10:30 GMT -6
The key features on the GFS(500 and 850 low) are pretty much ideal for along 44 up into the metro
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 22:11:34 GMT -6
Also, models starting to diverge quite a bit for the storm next Tuesday/Wednesday.
The 00z ggem is way north. The 00z gfs is north of St. Louis with the low, but wraps some decent snow around.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 22:15:09 GMT -6
The key features on the GFS(500 and 850 low) are pretty much ideal for along 44 up into the metro The FV3 drops 6" right along 44/64 and 8-12" just South of there. Leaves i70 almost shut out |
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 16, 2019 22:25:05 GMT -6
Yeah 500, 700, 850mb features on the 0z GFS are hitting the benchmark locations for I-44. Though the 700 and 850mb lows are still a bit sloppy looking.
I actually looked at the 18z BUFKIT profiles & cross sections in the deformation vicinity and I will say it was pretty dang impressive. Definitely a convective signal in there. 50-100 j/kg of elevated CAPE, very steep lapse rates in the DGZ of 7-8C/km, strong unidirectional shear in the 600-300mb layer of 50kts, deep strong omega profile straddling the DGZ, and PW values of 0.70-0.75". Ignoring precip type verbatim for the moment, there is potential for some heavy precip rates for sure. You can see hints of this in the convective precip fields as well. I also looked at the EPV numbers in the 600-500mb layer which were strongly negative.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Jan 16, 2019 22:30:46 GMT -6
How the heck do you guys remember those storms? I can't remember where I park my car at the grocery store.... - The only ones I r\specifically remember is '82 and Sleetaromma/could have been a blizzard....One epic and one a major disappointment... Because they are in the top 10 biggest in my lifetime. I was born Sept 21 1982. I was born a few weeks premature. I was concieved during the 1982 storm. Preemie born 9.11 here. High five! |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 22:32:53 GMT -6
We’re 48 hours out from precipitation beginning to move into the area and there’s still no true model consistency I thought for sure things would improve tonight. I still like the Euro, icon, Gem , GEFS and EPS as a blend. The have been the most consistent. The GFS, NAM and Super Gfs seem to keep jumping around with all the key features.
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