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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 22:35:38 GMT -6
Yeah 500, 700, 850mb features on the 0z GFS are hitting the benchmark locations for I-44. Though the 700 and 850mb lows are still a bit sloppy looking. I actually looked at the 18z BUFKIT profiles & cross sections in the deformation vicinity and I will say it was pretty dang impressive. Definitely a convective signal in there. 50-100 j/kg of elevated CAPE, very steep lapse rates in the DGZ of 7-8C/km, strong unidirectional shear in the 600-300mb layer of 50kts, deep strong omega profile straddling the DGZ, and PW values of 0.70-0.75". Ignoring precip type verbatim for the moment, there is potential for some heavy precip rates for sure. You can see hints of this in the convective precip fields as well. I also looked at the EPV numbers and in the 600-500mb layer which were strongly negative. The FV3 is basically shows the same. Except closes off at h5 from East Tex until the Mississippi. It has the classic 44 mauler. Given that this system has no chance to go North. This has the potential to be a immediate metro crusher |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 22:39:02 GMT -6
What are the rules for the 500/700/850 Low track placement for snow in St. Louis ? I’ve heard it talked about before
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 16, 2019 22:44:34 GMT -6
What are the rules for the 500/700/850 Low track placement for snow in St. Louis ? I’ve heard it talked about before Heaviest snow falls 90nmi to the left of the 850mb low track and 150nmi left of the 500mb vorticity max. 700mb low roughly overhead, give or take. Just remember this: 850mb low passes through Cape Girardeau (can we call this the G spot?) and 500mb vorticity max passes through the bootheel. This is based on heavy snow composite studies from Goree, Younkin, and Brown in the 1960s and 70s. Also backed up by a composite study from Glass I think at the STL NWS office with a local emphasis. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 16, 2019 22:47:19 GMT -6
Awesome thanks for the info
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 16, 2019 22:48:32 GMT -6
00z ukmet looks intense (994mb low).
My guess is that it is a good sized snow for the metro.
Still in the ballgame, but I'm ready for bed. It's not bad waking up to the euro.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 16, 2019 22:49:54 GMT -6
I guess I should emphasize that temperature matters. That's all meaningless if it's not cold enough to snow. We've seen that already a time or two in the last few months.
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Post by TK on Jan 16, 2019 22:59:19 GMT -6
Me too friv. Musta been cold. Lol Must be fate. To be so moved by the weather What else are you going to do in a major snowstorm? I was 18 and shoveling until the clap of thunder made me almost moist my pants... I used to pretend my driveway was the Lambert runway and we had to keep it open - Had to close that down pretty quick that night |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 23:01:03 GMT -6
The 00z GefS shifted the key features slightly South and really smokes I44 through the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 23:04:42 GMT -6
The 00z GefS shifted the key features slightly South and really smokes I44 through the metro I’m seeing a lot of evidence along 44 up into the metro is going to get hammered by deformation snow |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 23:04:49 GMT -6
I need to revise the fv3 drops 12-15 over SWIL and 6-12" around that.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2019 23:05:33 GMT -6
21Z SREF mean is now at 5".
This is the first potential snow maker that I've seen with a well defined trowal in years.
We just need the temperature to cooperate.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 23:07:01 GMT -6
21Z SREF mean is now at 5". This is the first potential snow maker that I've seen with a well defined trowal in years. We just need the temperature to cooperate. Never fails. SREF is like a smart forecaster. Always starts low and reasonable and works it’s way Up. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 23:08:26 GMT -6
Ya the Fv3 goes ham along and south of 44   |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 23:09:03 GMT -6
The ukmet is slightly further North
But leaves i70 completely missed.
Ramping up to a major snow event right up to and SE of 44.
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WeatherOrNot
Weather Weenie
Hull, IL (NW corner Pike Co., IL)
Posts: 36
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Post by WeatherOrNot on Jan 16, 2019 23:09:59 GMT -6
Glaze starting to form on elevated surfaces - deck, truck, outdoor table. Kids hoping for 3rd snow day this week...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 16, 2019 23:10:39 GMT -6
21Z SREF mean is now at 5". This is the first potential snow maker that I've seen with a well defined trowal in years. We just need the temperature to cooperate. Never fails. SREF is like a smart forecaster. Always starts low and reasonable and works it’s way Up. SREF is usually a good measure if the NAM is bluffing or not. If the SREF and NAM dont agree, the NAM will almost always fall in line with the SREFs |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 23:10:57 GMT -6
Ya the Fv3 goes ham along and south of 44 Lol... hello |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 23:11:44 GMT -6
This is ramping up to be one of those that realllly pisses some people off and realllly makes some happy.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 23:19:57 GMT -6
Nothing is guaranteed but it sure is starting to look really good for the immediate metro up i-44
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2019 23:20:44 GMT -6
Like every other storm around here, lol
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 23:22:38 GMT -6
Like every other storm around here, lol Well if this does smoke the I44 corridor to the SE Pretty much everyone in the emetro will be pretty even on the season. Except you of course you will have had the most snow out of all of us |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 16, 2019 23:25:43 GMT -6
Also...I've been racking my brain and I can't think of one single instance of two major snowstorms hitting our region within a week. 1982... the original storm was followed 7 days later by a 5 to 10" stoem. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 16, 2019 23:30:37 GMT -6
2000 had some pretty good storms close together didn’t it? Or was that just an extremely cold winter?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 23:35:32 GMT -6
2000 had some pretty good storms close together didn’t it? Or was that just an extremely cold winter? I remember December 2000 having a big snow event |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2019 23:36:40 GMT -6
Like every other storm around here, lol Well if this does smoke the I44 corridor to the SE Pretty much everyone in the emetro will be pretty even on the season. Except you of course you will have had the most snow out of all of us Maybe I should change my name to Snow King? Or Snow Emperor? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 16, 2019 23:46:31 GMT -6
Well if this does smoke the I44 corridor to the SE Pretty much everyone in the emetro will be pretty even on the season. Except you of course you will have had the most snow out of all of us Maybe I should change my name to Snow King? Or Snow Emperor? GBM GORKEE BROWN MAN |
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Post by jason0101 on Jan 16, 2019 23:49:58 GMT -6
Given the trends..think this one is a dud in my neck of the woods. Good luck folks!
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 16, 2019 23:54:16 GMT -6
The last snow-on-snow event at the airport occurred in 1999 when 4" fell on top of 2". I define snow-on-snow subjectively as at least 4" on top of at least 2".
1982 had an epic snow-on-snow event which brought the airport to it's record snow depth of 20" shortly after the infamouse "1982 Blizzard" which wasn't actually a blizzard by the way.
Anyway, so it's been 19 years since the airport had a bona-fide snow-on-snow event.
The snow is starting to melt fast at my house now. I'm not sure if we'll have any left by this weekend or not.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2019 23:56:43 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 16, 2019 23:58:26 GMT -6
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