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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 0:00:07 GMT -6
Why does it have to be at least 4 on 2? That's an awful lot, lol. Why wouldn't 1 on 2 suffice? Huh? why? Why? why?
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 17, 2019 0:03:49 GMT -6
Completely subjective on my part. 2" is usually enough depth to mostly hide the grass. And 4" is a solid advisory level event.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 0:14:37 GMT -6
Euro drops a warning level event (6-8+") in the metro and gives everyone in the area atleast 3"
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 0:15:47 GMT -6
euro still good, not as high with snow as last 2 runs, but still 4-8 across the metro..highest in the north.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 0:37:29 GMT -6
The 00z GEFS mean snowfall map and deterministic euro snow map are very similar
If I was making a snowfall map for this system I’d probably just copy what they show
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 0:39:25 GMT -6
The euro essentially has no deformation zone.
That's a red flag
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 0:51:53 GMT -6
The euro essentially has no deformation zone. That's a red flag It’s much colder on the onset than the other models so we almost start as snow in the metro. Then it keeps precep going in the cold sector all day Saturday It’s different from the FV3 which is warm on the front end then has a wicked band of snow on the bsckside Im not sure which is more likely, but we get a lot of snow on both so I’m not complaining |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 0:58:56 GMT -6
I figured the models would have a hard time with this, but this is a bit ridiculous. Lol.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 1:37:02 GMT -6
EPS is virtually unchanged from the last run
6-8" in the northern counties
5-7" in the metro
2-4" in the southern counties
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 1:38:58 GMT -6
EPS pretty consistent with 12z. 4-7 through the metro..less south, more north, has 6 for STL.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 1:39:30 GMT -6
Dammit 920 you keep snookering me. Lol
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 1:40:58 GMT -6
They also have a Memphis low
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 1:50:06 GMT -6
SREF is about 5.5". If you take out the 3 highest and 3 lowest, it's still at a hair over 5.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 2:24:56 GMT -6
06Z NAM is much better than 00z through 48 hours at h5.
Way better.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 2:32:37 GMT -6
Uppers are better ..precip still blows chunks
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 2:38:25 GMT -6
Uppers are better ..precip still blows chunks It will probably end up not closing off so far North. I mean the ukmet and euro are essentially to far South on the backend. So far I'm still catiously optimistic. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 2:39:26 GMT -6
NAM is a good bit colder and further south this run. Good trend. Its REALLY close to a lot of sleet and freezing rain on the front side for the metro. In fact looking at the soundings, im not sure it wouldnt be ice. Look at the lift as well  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 2:43:34 GMT -6
well somehow it shows a foot+ over the area, lmao
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 2:44:57 GMT -6
Uppers are better ..precip still blows chunks The hires nam has a monster deformation zone along and South of i-44 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 3:09:49 GMT -6
Yeah Hires has a strengthening low from ne AR through about Memphis or extreme southern bootheel..goes from 1002 to 999
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 3:19:30 GMT -6
What a mess.... there really is nothing solid to pin down...the problem with the ensembles...it may give you a strong hint on possible axis of heavy snow...but it also can mask the snow voids...leading to massively over estimated totals....which may be the case near I-70.
I'm thinking the EPS is bloated too far south...
The 06z 3km NAM looks intriguing... and it is a pretty good fit with the the global model pressure center tracks and vorticity...
I think I'm going to go with a broad-brush "around 3 inches" but some spots up to 6" until I get a better feel for this and have time to actually draw it out. It is going to be a long morning....
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 3:36:01 GMT -6
We were definitely spoiled by the relative agreement with last week's storm. This week it's atrocious, lol. NWS said it should be fully sampled by 00z runs tonight.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 4:10:01 GMT -6
Looks like NWS going with 3-5 for metro..4-6 just north
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2019 4:11:04 GMT -6
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 4:41:17 GMT -6
Low does strengthen, but it moves pretty quickly and doesn't pull up. Sure it goes over Memphis, but not exactly a good angle, IMO.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 4:44:48 GMT -6
We were definitely spoiled by the relative agreement with last week's storm. This week it's atrocious, lol. NWS said it should be fully sampled by 00z runs tonight. Which is why I always approach models with skepticism... even if they agree. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 4:58:56 GMT -6
The 06z ggem smokes the i44 corridor.
The 06z fv3 is drier but still smokes i44 to the SE.
The 06z GefS has ticked South again.
The 06z GFS is still weak on the backside but is focused SE of 44.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 5:01:49 GMT -6
The 06z ggem smokes the i44 corridor. The 06z fv3 is drier but still smokes i44 to the SE. The 06z GefS has ticked South again. The 06z GFS is still weak on the backside but is focused SE of 44. The 06z icon hits along and SE of 44. |
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 5:06:46 GMT -6
Always looking back at '82 to see why it was perfect. The low not only went through the Memphis area the angle it took was absolutely perfect. This may be a possible Memphis low, but where it is coming from and where it is going to after is not exactly perfect. Too far N before and too far E after. It's also booking along fairly quickly.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 5:40:44 GMT -6
06z FV3 finally has something I can work with...and is somewhat similar to the 3km NAM. I might have to pay more attention to these off model runs...I may be starting to trust them a little more.
I like the overall trends... they show a split in the precip with wave #1 passing north associated with strong WAA late Friday night...then wave #2 forms with the southern shortwave that lifts northeast into a favorable position for snow up I-44 in MO and I-70 in IL.
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