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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 17, 2019 16:06:15 GMT -6
And just like that the models reels us back in...
If the 18Z trends hold into 0Z or improve upon, we might be golden afterall.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 16:09:55 GMT -6
Models really seem to be honing in on that backside band up 44 into the metro. The higher resolution models (like the 3k NAM) should be able to pick up on it the best
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 17, 2019 16:10:02 GMT -6
Most of us really haven't been reeled out. The set up is great- has been for quite awhile... just needs to click.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 17, 2019 16:11:45 GMT -6
I also agree that the 3kNAM makes more conceptual sense at a glance with the better defined low pressure centers. It's interesting how different the outcome is from the regular NAM. I really don't know, but I wonder if we're seeing how more subtle and esoteric things like explicit vs. parameterized convection and diabatic/latent heating as a result of that convection can eventually make a significant change in the strength of the system and final outcome. I'm not willing to say the 3kNAM is entirely correct, but I do envision some sort of a deformation driven area of snow with the system. At the same time I also find it hard to lead with a forecast that's beyond...say...an advisory type of event without more support.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 17, 2019 16:12:20 GMT -6
RGEM is awesome...
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2019 16:17:14 GMT -6
massive snow melt today. More tomorrow..with rain tomorrow night, anyone thinking snow on snow better move somewhere else, lol. Like SPI, or northern Greene county in IL |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 16:17:20 GMT -6
Gfs starting to look like it may pull something together next week. Icon as well.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 17, 2019 16:26:17 GMT -6
Check out the end of the run of the 21z rap. Its epic. Already heavy amounts along i70 with defo band bout to clobber us all
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 17, 2019 16:28:00 GMT -6
It’s a good sign that the short term models are looking the best with this type of event. Hopefully it continues.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 16:28:22 GMT -6
Rt next to each other on my fb feed, i saw fox 2 accum forecast which is really chris map. Then i saw david murrays which depicts the nws map and rt after that i saw the nws posting. It will be interesting if your offhour models verify then chris forecast wld look like it scored a bit higher. Just an interesting obsevation. It really could pay off to keep it general until closer to the event in this case...but really,there isnt alot of material difference....just how the info is presented.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 16:33:00 GMT -6
Just another note if temps climb to the mid or upper 30s tomorrow night with all that rain, the high on friday will be mid or upper 30s with falling temps. If temps fall quickly and we get that flash freezing scenario, ppl will get stranded. Im not sure how fast temps will crash but if they dont, the changeover may be very very slow, taking us well into the afternoon.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 16:35:05 GMT -6
18z icon is close, but more progressive than the 3k. The 500 vort is beautiful on that run It is. When I saw the vorticity track. I thought explosive. If the vorticity ends up like that.. Probably explosive. 18z gem and rgem 3-6" along 44/64 . 18z GFS and fv3 have 2-4" |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 17, 2019 16:36:25 GMT -6
Check out the end of the run of the 21z rap. Its epic. Already heavy amounts along i70 with defo band bout to clobber us all Off the RAP at 12z Sat... flakes would be monsters
Excellent lapse rates... isothermal up to near 700... light winds above 850 and thru the DGZ
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 17, 2019 16:39:49 GMT -6
That's about as good as it gets for dendrite formation and aggregation.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 16:40:10 GMT -6
Check out the end of the run of the 21z rap. Its epic. Already heavy amounts along i70 with defo band bout to clobber us all It has a closed h7 low over S Central Mo And a closed h85 low over SE MO. That would end up dumping 4-8" along 44/64 into the metro. Really nice look |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 17, 2019 16:52:34 GMT -6
Any instability you all are seeing?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 16:53:41 GMT -6
The 18z has 3" along 44/64 .
And has the 2" line down to like St gen.
But ratio would likely be better than 10-1.
Definitely an improvement
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 16:55:22 GMT -6
Stores are already crowded. Im cheap i shop at aldi...no parking avble.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 16:57:21 GMT -6
Friv, what model are you referring to?
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 17, 2019 17:00:58 GMT -6
Stores are already crowded. Im cheap i shop at aldi...no parking avble. Last storm under hyped.... This one will be over hyped. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2019 17:19:23 GMT -6
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 17:19:41 GMT -6
Friv, what model are you referring to? GefS. My bad. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 17:20:43 GMT -6
Must be from the 12z guidance. |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 17, 2019 17:22:07 GMT -6
Well..that sure is an underwhelming map there.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 17, 2019 17:28:19 GMT -6
Well..that sure is an underwhelming map there. Wait for it. Those numbers will go up. |
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Post by TK on Jan 17, 2019 17:30:46 GMT -6
Awesome -NWS has maybe an inch and other models show 3-6 - Maybe more in spots- So glad I'm not a met - This is going to be messy and the public won't understand the complexity with this.
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Post by guyfromhecker on Jan 17, 2019 17:31:13 GMT -6
I got to ask about using the upper lows for guidance. That obviously doesn't apply to the far-flung waa events that we sometimes have. This system definitely has the potential to produce some warm air advection snow up in Northern Illinois that are the largest in Missouri or Illinois.
So are the upper lows more about the deformation band?
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Jan 17, 2019 17:32:45 GMT -6
Well..that sure is an underwhelming map there. Wait for it. Those numbers will go up. Gone from 12 top end to poo. |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 17, 2019 17:33:00 GMT -6
It was a joke lol. Hence the paragraph of analysis about STL metro weather impacts. Feel free to block me. I got it... and appreciate your input from up north. Pay no attention to the peanut gallery  You can definitely tell the frustrations growing with this storm..........As long as WSC stays loyal to StL and doesn't turn into a Cubs fan.....We'll all appreciate his knowledge and input! |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 17, 2019 17:35:15 GMT -6
Lost half of the snow pack today at the house. Road ditches and Creeks are running strong as well. Gutters sound like it just got done raining.
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