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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 17, 2019 17:39:17 GMT -6
Lost half of the snow pack today at the house. Road ditches and Creeks are running strong as well. Gutters sound like it just got done raining. Same over here. There were some large plow piles at work that have disappeared too. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 17, 2019 17:50:50 GMT -6
I just posted the map I put up here earlier to facebook...that's going to be my stopping point for tonight. Time for dinner and bed. I'm VERY comfortable with what I'm showing right now.
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 17, 2019 17:52:55 GMT -6
Lost half of the snow pack today at the house. Road ditches and Creeks are running strong as well. Gutters sound like it just got done raining. Same over here. There were some large plow piles at work that have disappeared too. The neighbors had a chunk of “snow mattress” slide off their roof and pull a 20’ section of gutter down with it! |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 17, 2019 18:08:56 GMT -6
Same over here. There were some large plow piles at work that have disappeared too. The neighbors had a chunk of “snow mattress” slide off their roof and pull a 20’ section of gutter down with it! I didn’t lose my gutters but it did pull out my gutter guards... a project for spring lol |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 18:11:22 GMT -6
Snow man postvthe 18z Euro update if you have time , thanks
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 17, 2019 18:17:17 GMT -6
I got to ask about using the upper lows for guidance. That obviously doesn't apply to the far-flung waa events that we sometimes have. This system definitely has the potential to produce some warm air advection snow up in Northern Illinois that are the largest in Missouri or Illinois. So are the upper lows more about the deformation band? Yes and no. Lift from WAA is still tied to mid and upper-level forcings. Case in point...enhanced lift tied to the LLJ is often found in the right entrance region of the outbound jetstreak due to upper level divergence and also in regions of DPVA which helps to back the winds across the thermal/theta gradient. So tracking upper level features is very helpful in forecasting all aspects of a storm system. In fact, if it weren't for our knowledge and sampling of upper forcings, we wouldn't hardly be able to forecast snow or weather accurately at all except for relaying reports as a storm crosses the country and using the surface pressure pattern as a rough guide. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 18:44:10 GMT -6
That map isnt unreasonable. Not starting a debate, but i think they wld wait until 00 models before changing anything. I am sure the 12 models drove current forecast.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 17, 2019 18:44:51 GMT -6
This seems to be a tough one to forecast. One person told me that every station has a different forecast. He said it sounds like we can get anywhere from a dusting to a foot.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 17, 2019 18:56:21 GMT -6
Getting the Jameson out. I’m gonna ride out the next could hours of runs with some good vibes regardless of what happens. Cheers to a good 00z suite everyone!!
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 17, 2019 19:04:38 GMT -6
Getting the Jameson out. I’m gonna ride out the next could hours of runs with some good vibes regardless of what happens. Cheers to a good 00z suite everyone!! You can’t drink alone. Crown Reserve on the rocks for me. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 17, 2019 19:06:36 GMT -6
Getting the Jameson out. I’m gonna ride out the next could hours of runs with some good vibes regardless of what happens. Cheers to a good 00z suite everyone!! You can’t drink alone. Crown Reserve on the rocks for me. Sounds like a plan. Maybe we should all tie on a perfect buzz so we don’t beat each other up in the event of a meltdown tonight. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2019 19:33:17 GMT -6
Why is everyone so jittery?
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Jan 17, 2019 19:36:14 GMT -6
I just started a long island tea. let the models begin
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2019 19:37:56 GMT -6
The NWS map is actually a really great map when you really think about it. Nobody wants to go gangbusters on a storm that has had what, 0 consecutive model runs that had the same idea, let alone, model continuity. Using a blend only, that’s what it is. I’m expecting those numbers to actually probably double
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2019 19:55:37 GMT -6
00z hrrr looks explosive.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 19:56:24 GMT -6
The NWS map is actually a really great map when you really think about it. Nobody wants to go gangbusters on a storm that has had what, 0 consecutive model runs that had the same idea, let alone, model continuity. Using a blend only, that’s what it is. I’m expecting those numbers to actually probably double I agree up the the point of doubling. I suspect the 00 models will be realistic perhaps a bit higher than 12 but much lower than 18. Jmho. |
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 17, 2019 19:57:07 GMT -6
Places everyone. The show is about to begin.
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Post by MakeitRain on Jan 17, 2019 19:58:54 GMT -6
Everyone got a taste from the last winter storm and they’re putting a lot on models after an 18z prayer. Classic.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 20:01:35 GMT -6
0z HRRR does look good at the end of its run
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 20:08:29 GMT -6
WSc- If this goes South for us. I'd tread lightly You might be on the ban list  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 20:09:04 GMT -6
Everyone got a taste from the last winter storm and they’re putting a lot on models after an 18z prayer. Classic. FTW |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 17, 2019 20:10:48 GMT -6
Everyone got a taste from the last winter storm and they’re putting a lot on models after an 18z prayer. Classic. Eh, I haven’t been concerned about the ebb and flow of models. I follow trends. Trend is over-performing cyclones as opposed to anemic sheared out pieces of junk. We have 1. Extremely high pwats 2. A quality source of cold air 3. A healthy feed from the gulf 4. Enough confluence over the lakes to slow this down and keep it from lifting too soon. When all of those come together, we don’t typically get a 1-3” storm. We typically get a 6”+ storm. But, the IMBY forecasts are different since I’m a good 80 miles north of the metro |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 17, 2019 20:14:21 GMT -6
WSc- If this goes South for us. I'd tread lightly You might be on the ban list I plan on taking video from 22 floors up and sending it to Landscaper privately... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 17, 2019 20:16:19 GMT -6
horrible
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on Jan 17, 2019 20:17:09 GMT -6
I wouldn’t say that’s a whole over Mascoutah I’d say that looks more like we’d be getting the “shaft”......, oh never mind...lol She's a beaut Clark!  There is a hole over Mascoutah... me no likely! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 17, 2019 20:18:05 GMT -6
Just looking at the name at h5 I bet it has no snow for us
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 17, 2019 20:18:12 GMT -6
Uh oh...
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Post by landscaper on Jan 17, 2019 20:18:25 GMT -6
NAM is beyond terrible...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 17, 2019 20:19:16 GMT -6
laughable.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 17, 2019 20:19:18 GMT -6
Just looking at the name at h5 I bet it has no snow for us You would be correct |
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