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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 21, 2019 23:24:36 GMT -6
The gefs mean has 1.5-2" of snow tommorow night.
Like half of them have 2-3".
A couple have essentially nothing.
Others an inch or so.
All of them show a larger backside swath of falling snow compared to the OP.
So I don't know if that's something wrong or more right
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2019 1:11:01 GMT -6
Euro has the clippers all stay to our north, it's not as cold as 12z. cold..but not as cold. Kinda meh.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2019 5:00:03 GMT -6
Not sure what to think, The models show very cold air coming down...then they back off the next day. It's always 8-9 days out. I mean euro was showing record cold here on Sunday, now the forecast is for a high around 40. We hardly ever get a clipper train come through here. We had one Sunday, Thursday's seems to be drying up on models, NWS agrees. Saturday is up in the air. Then a potential strong one next week, way to the north because we NEVER get those. Euro ensembles show a major relaxing of the pattern in 12 or 13 days. I suppose we'll see what happens.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 22, 2019 5:00:06 GMT -6
Euro has the clippers all stay to our north, it's not as cold as 12z. cold..but not as cold. Kinda meh. Euro has made a habit of coming in with icebox cold only to ease off the pedal.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2019 5:03:42 GMT -6
I think we posted at the same time Chris, lol.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 6:06:52 GMT -6
The pattern starts to look better towards the beginning of February with the long wave trof axis retrograding towards the central US and energy getting loaded in the SW. Until then it looks cold overall and clippers will have to be taken on a case-by-case basis.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2019 6:18:37 GMT -6
Basically we have to time everything perfect to get any winter over the next 10 days , a lot of 1-2 cold shots followed by a 1-2 quick warm to seasonal temps then rinse repeat. I still think we will cash in on one or two
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 22, 2019 6:56:43 GMT -6
Euro has the clippers all stay to our north, it's not as cold as 12z. cold..but not as cold. Kinda meh. Euro has made a habit of coming in with icebox cold only to ease off the pedal. GFS has done the same this season. I have no problem with being on the edge of the NW flow as opposed to right in the middle of the deep cold. Really no point in that...sky high utility bills aren't worth a couple little clippers to me. Like BRTN said, let's get the pattern shifted back to the west and load up some storms coming out of the SW.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2019 6:59:52 GMT -6
Good thing the drizzle didn’t develop, I’m still 26-27 in Wentzville, DP Low 20’s NWS had me at 33 by now
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 6:59:54 GMT -6
Current Td is 20*...that might make things interesting.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2019 7:05:30 GMT -6
There is still a strong signal for a chance for minor snow accumulation tomorrow morning.
Especially SW of the Lou
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 7:43:51 GMT -6
There is still a strong signal for a chance for minor snow accumulation tomorrow morning. Especially SW of the Lou There does seem to be a trend for more energy getting bundled in the base of the trof and lifting through here tomorrow morning. It's getting increasingly sheared but there might be enough forcing and moisture to squeeze out some flakes.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2019 7:50:56 GMT -6
What models are you seeing it on Friv?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2019 8:08:33 GMT -6
What models are you seeing it on Friv? Mostly the GFS and gefs. Some of the gefs members have 2" The last two gefs runs have had 1-2" from the immediate metro to the SW. But that's not likely
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Post by jeepers on Jan 22, 2019 8:21:53 GMT -6
Chris, FYI but your on air forecast graphic said 25-25 mph while you were saying 25-35 mph. Wanted you to know in case you plan on reusing it.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 8:55:56 GMT -6
Is it me, or does today’s low looks like it’s gonna keep digging based on radar
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 8:56:19 GMT -6
What models are you seeing it on Friv? Mostly the GFS and gefs. Some of the gefs members have 2" The last two gefs runs have had 1-2" from the immediate metro to the SW. But that's not likely Yeah I feel like Schmocker rule is most likely with that one...maybe some flurries or a burst of snow if we're lucky.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2019 8:59:41 GMT -6
If the darn thing keeps digging we are gonna get a ton of rain 1 to 2 inches plus and maybe a quick hit of flash freeze and heavy snow tomorrow mornings rush hour. It is still digging
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2019 9:04:57 GMT -6
If the darn thing keeps digging we are gonna get a ton of rain 1 to 2 inches plus and maybe a quick hit of flash freeze and heavy snow tomorrow mornings rush hour. It is still digging All models continue to shift south. I still don't think we see any snow out of this at all.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 22, 2019 9:08:13 GMT -6
Have to drive to Ohio tomorrow. If we’re not getting anything good, it can just dry up.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2019 9:12:50 GMT -6
Ive lost some interest in the clippers this weekend as it seems that models are backing off on the setting in of cold and have more of a progressive look to them. Agree w brtn that each clipper has to be taken on a case by case and i wldnt get too caught up in the southern track until we get closer to the event. While even as recent as yesterday, it looked like a clipper train, im starting to see adjustments that wld indicate a further north track. We shall see. This weekend is something to keep an eye on but i wldnt cancel plans.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2019 9:16:47 GMT -6
Chris may be picking up on model trends for early next week that at one time looked similar to tonights system. Its interesting in his broadcast segment he called for rain showers monday and the nws has snow.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2019 9:19:51 GMT -6
If the darn thing keeps digging we are gonna get a ton of rain 1 to 2 inches plus and maybe a quick hit of flash freeze and heavy snow tomorrow mornings rush hour. It is still digging All models continue to shift south. I still don't think we see any snow out of this at all. I lost interest in this last week. The upper level pattern stopped showing support for snow and by the time cold air arrives it developed a stretched out sheered look to it. Hv no idea if that has changed.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2019 9:22:37 GMT -6
07z HRRR had low in NW Missouri. 14z now has it 200 miles south of that lol
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2019 9:38:04 GMT -6
Temp at 32 DP of 22 , I don’t see it getting into the mid 40’s today. I could see upper 30’s and a cold rain
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 9:58:41 GMT -6
Temp at 32 DP of 22 , I don’t see it getting into the mid 40’s today. I could see upper 30’s and a cold rain I still think we could see icing in spots this afternoon on sheltered, untreated roads.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 22, 2019 9:59:14 GMT -6
Just out of curiosity, is there a reason clippers follow the -10C at 850 or is it just something that seems to be more true than not I think it's just a rule of thumb similar to how GYB concluded that the snow maxima on southern based storms tends to follow the -5C isotherm at 850mb. By the way, I believe what GYB said about storms is based on the most likely scenario. They didn't say that the maxima always occurs 90nm north of the 850mb low or right along the -5C isotherm...just that of the cases they analyzed that seemed to be the best discriminator. In fact, their conclusions have a lot of probabilistic statements associated with them. And of course, in the end you're still at the mercy of how well the parameters of these rule-of-thumb techniques can be predicted in the first place. Last weekend is a great example. GYB is really useful IF you have confidence in the 850mb track. And even when you do have confidence in the GYB parameters you still won't make perfect snowfall forecasts because GYB isn't designed to be perfect.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 10:06:52 GMT -6
One thing I noticed with the last storm is that models didn't pick up on how quickly the storm became vertically stacked...that was a major issue for sure and one of the reasons the snow band set up so far S. Now that I have re-analyzed the system, I really can't blame the GYB method for a busted forecast.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2019 10:09:03 GMT -6
NAM and GFS still look good for that clipper Friday. Looks to take a similar track the one Sunday did
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 22, 2019 10:17:43 GMT -6
Temp at 32 DP of 22 , I don’t see it getting into the mid 40’s today. I could see upper 30’s and a cold rain I’m up to 39 already with a south breeze.
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