|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2019 10:20:32 GMT -6
One thing I noticed with the last storm is that models didn't pick up on how quickly the storm became vertically stacked...that was a major issue for sure and one of the reasons the snow band set up so far S. Now that I have re-analyzed the system, I really can't blame the GYB method for a busted forecast. Yes i was,thinking that and remembering 2/25/1979 with that vertically stacked system. Iirc the 90 mile band of heavy snow fell right underneath and to the north of that low. Im realizing that the more verticalky stacked a system is, the closer to the mid level low the snow occurs which makes sense since the upper low is where the snow falls, but i also seem to notice that the heavy snow band tends to be narrower. The good news is that this year storms tend to become stacked more easily which could bring us a shot at blizzard conditions in feb.
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 22, 2019 10:40:33 GMT -6
Just returned home from running errands. Slightest hint of something falling. Think it's just drizzle since I'm at 34*. Couldn't even feel it on my skin but could see it on the windshield. Didn't come close to needing the wipers.
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2019 11:01:25 GMT -6
NAM and GFS still look good for that clipper Friday. Looks to take a similar track the one Sunday did GFS looks like it just hits a wall at I-70... NAM looks much healthier and eats right through.
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2019 12:13:22 GMT -6
Monday's hybrid clipper looks impressive on SUPERGFS. Drop 6"+ in Central Illinois. Need the south trend there.
|
|
|
Post by cardsnweather on Jan 22, 2019 12:21:58 GMT -6
EURO brings it close on Friday and then slides east. Dusting at most.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 12:28:06 GMT -6
EURO brings it close on Friday and then slides east. Dusting at most. Would think that will trend further W with time...look how far SW that clipper behind it is! I don't remember too many digging W of the divide.
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2019 12:28:12 GMT -6
EURO brings it close on Friday and then slides east. Dusting at most. Just need it to come in a tad weaker to keep the -10 850 draped over the metro on that run
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 12:39:04 GMT -6
EURO brings it close on Friday and then slides east. Dusting at most. Just need it to come in a tad weaker to keep the -10 850 draped over the metro on that run Have to think models are moderating the airmass too quickly at this range. That should be another fluff fest...low QPF/high ratio event.
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 22, 2019 12:45:20 GMT -6
Mist and 41F here. I sure hope this potential cold pattern doesn't fizzle out. With the ridge -EPO setting up we have to get into a cold NW flow at times. That GOA ridge looks impressive.
|
|
|
Post by snowday_lover on Jan 22, 2019 13:05:23 GMT -6
It's 35 degrees here and been drizzling for a couple hours. Will the drizzle turn to rain later on? Won't the temps drop later tonight? Should I expect a refreeze, or will the ground temps warm?
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2019 13:24:02 GMT -6
Honestly i am just ready for spring Ive had enough snow
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jan 22, 2019 13:34:10 GMT -6
So are we snow bunnies satisfied? Who’s ready for summer?
|
|
|
Post by RyanD on Jan 22, 2019 13:34:12 GMT -6
Honestly i am just ready for spring Ive had enough snow I guess with a foot more snow than anyone else you would be
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2019 13:35:49 GMT -6
I officially have had 22.7 for the winter. That's enough for me I threw. My back out shoveling last weekend
|
|
padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
|
Post by padlur on Jan 22, 2019 13:37:12 GMT -6
Those thoughts are heresy round these parts...
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 13:42:07 GMT -6
Monday's hybrid clipper looks impressive on SUPERGFS. Drop 6"+ in Central Illinois. Need the south trend there. I would expect a north trend with that beast. Euro is already north of Chicago with it. Not a good sign for the metro cashing in on the main impact of that one.
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Jan 22, 2019 13:49:48 GMT -6
Sure doesn't feel like 41-42 outside.
|
|
|
Post by koll27–Waterloo, IL on Jan 22, 2019 13:50:21 GMT -6
It's crazy how the posts slow waaaay down when the weather chills out. I miss the excitement. I guess I'm addicted.
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2019 14:00:56 GMT -6
Some short term models are starting to hint at the idea of a brief period of snow early tomorrow morning
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 14:10:55 GMT -6
This storm is appearing to have some issues organizing. That’s fine. IF we can get through this with little snowmelt from rain, the pack will firm back up and be a solid block of ice. Of course, I’m speaking of north of I70
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 14:13:39 GMT -6
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t it still look like it’s digging on radar? I didn’t think it was supposed to dig that far?
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2019 14:31:27 GMT -6
This storm is appearing to have some issues organizing. That’s fine. IF we can get through this with little snowmelt from rain, the pack will firm back up and be a solid block of ice. Of course, I’m speaking of north of I70 How much snow you have on the ground there? NAM has over an inch of rain tonight in central IL
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2019 14:34:52 GMT -6
Honestly i am just ready for spring Ive had enough snow I feel you on that. Of course I'll track potential. But I work outside a lot. And its freaking ruthless.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 14:38:48 GMT -6
Sure doesn't feel like 41-42 outside. Ground is colder for sure.
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 14:40:02 GMT -6
Honestly i am just ready for spring Ive had enough snow I feel you on that. Of course I'll track potential. But I work outside a lot. And its freaking ruthless. You should invest in a pair of bibs if you don't already have some. I like the Berne brand...cheaper than Carhartt and good quality.
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jan 22, 2019 14:43:08 GMT -6
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t it still look like it’s digging on radar? I didn’t think it was supposed to dig that far? Looks to me you can see the vorticity getting stretched out... with the main vort up across KS beginning to lift northeast. Seems to fit the models.
Nice looking gravity waves too.
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 14:43:27 GMT -6
This storm is appearing to have some issues organizing. That’s fine. IF we can get through this with little snowmelt from rain, the pack will firm back up and be a solid block of ice. Of course, I’m speaking of north of I70 How much snow you have on the ground there? NAM has over an inch of rain tonight in central IL I’d say an even 3” in SPI. North and West facing more. Probably closer to an even 5 or 6 over in IJX. I’m personally hoping for a disorganized mess instead of the half to 3/4” of rain on my point forecast.
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 14:44:21 GMT -6
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t it still look like it’s digging on radar? I didn’t think it was supposed to dig that far? Looks to me you can see the vorticity getting stretched out... with the main vort up across KS beginning to lift northeast. Seems to fit the models.
Nice looking gravity waves too.
That’s cool
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2019 14:44:49 GMT -6
Some short term models are starting to hint at the idea of a brief period of snow early tomorrow morning It's quite noticible that half the GFS ensemble members have 1.5-3".
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2019 14:48:07 GMT -6
Some short term models are starting to hint at the idea of a brief period of snow early tomorrow morning It's quite noticible that half the GFS ensemble members have 1.5-3". Even the euro has been hinting at it
Its not dropping any accumulations but for several runs now has had snow on the back edge on the precep
|
|