Some short terminal models are starting to hint at the idea of a brief period of snow early tomorrow morning
It's quite noticible that half the GFS ensemble members have 1.5-3".
The models have a secondary vort max number slide up the front side of the trough tonight.
That ignites more precipitation.
But they vary on how far back this energy lags into the undercutting cold sector.
Looks really brief.
2017 was the 2nd warmest year on record 2016 was the warmest year on record 2015 was the 3rd warmest year on record 2014 was the 4th warmest year on record
I sure hope we get something Saturday because I'm beginning to get skeptical this wintry pattern will get established.
Its almost as though the models WANT to phase and suppress the southern stream a week out, then go "oh yeah, almost forgot, father wants to keep a split flow". Then the clippers stay north. I think we will see the snow pops drop for this next weekend and early next week unless we can get some kind of a hybrid going with some residual pacific energy...but again that may require phasing. Ik im much less confident in any accums this weekend. Most of the longer term models focus more energy along the northern stream too but im not sure that is a sustainable pattern long term. It may mean we have a rollercoaster ride bw below norm temps to brief periods of norm temps as the warm sector hits us.
Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 15:43:36 GMT -6
Its a battle between the MJO and the PV. IF we transition out of phase 5 on the MJO, the cold will be more pronounced and better entrenched. I haven’t looked at the MJO forecast today.
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 22, 2019 15:51:25 GMT -6
Cpc says ao tanks while nao remains weakly positive. Thats why im skeptical of clippers anytime soon. But if timing is right with push of cold air, i cld see a clipper going rogue. Maybe it will scoop moisture too. Those kind of things arent predictable beyond a day or so in advance, imo.
Cpc says ao tanks while nao remains weakly positive. Thats why im skeptical of clippers anytime soon. But if timing is right with push of cold air, i cld see a clipper going rogue. Maybe it will scoop moisture too. Those kind of things arent predictable beyond a day or so in advance, imo.
I could see some hybrid clippers running I70.
But, I agree they are fickle and not very predictable.
IIRC a hybrid clipper is what put Friv on the map. Lol
Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 15:56:34 GMT -6
MJO forecasted by almost all ensembles to go into phase 6, still a warm phase for us. Just tried to read an article on the MJO, but there was a lot of big words and not many pictures.
Its a battle between the MJO and the PV. IF we transition out of phase 5 on the MJO, the cold will be more pronounced and better entrenched. I haven’t looked at the MJO forecast today.
Squarely Phase 5 today, transitioning to Phase 6 over the weekend into a good part of next week before heading into the CoD (Circle of Death) or neutral circle by month's end.
Location: Unincorporated West Belleville @ Stookey Township between IL Route 15 and Old St. Louis Rd/Route 13.
Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 22, 2019 16:12:29 GMT -6
CoD or correctly termed neutral circle is when the MJO dies out and isn't in any specific phase, being close to the circle can also indicate a weak MJO wave meaning it's effects are less pronounced.
Location: Unincorporated West Belleville @ Stookey Township between IL Route 15 and Old St. Louis Rd/Route 13.
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2019 16:18:46 GMT -6
NWS likes the clipper Friday
A series of shortwaves within the northwest flow aloft will be the impetus for any sensible weather and there are three noteworthy waves in the guidance in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. The first of these on Thursday will have an associated cold front with strong CAA and gusty northwest winds bringing the next big surge of Arctic air. Mid level moisture is lacking with this wave in the latest guidance so there doesn`t appear to be a threat of measurable snowfall. There is a decent amount of low level moisture so ultimately we may see some flurries within the post-frontal cold air Thursday. The most impressive of the systems is currently forecast for Friday/Friday evening with the models depicting a rather impressive clipper. Large scale ascent with this short wave along with good low-mid level frontogenetic forcing (which is further strengthened by low-mid level WAA) should result in a widespread snow, and this system has the potential for a solid 1-3+ inch snowfall. The main question is just the track, with the NAM and GFS supporting the axis across the northeast half of the CWA, while the ECMWF would suggest the better forcing and snow would remain north/northeast of the CWA. I remain cautionary but have boosted pops from St. Louis northward to account for the consensus solution. The final short wave in this initial series is on target for Saturday. Both the GFS and CMC GEM would have yet another round of measurable snowfall, while the ECMWF is totally dry. Hence the forecast for this time frame has a greater degree of uncertainty and pops only in the chance range.
A series of shortwaves within the northwest flow aloft will be the impetus for any sensible weather and there are three noteworthy waves in the guidance in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. The first of these on Thursday will have an associated cold front with strong CAA and gusty northwest winds bringing the next big surge of Arctic air. Mid level moisture is lacking with this wave in the latest guidance so there doesn`t appear to be a threat of measurable snowfall. There is a decent amount of low level moisture so ultimately we may see some flurries within the post-frontal cold air Thursday. The most impressive of the systems is currently forecast for Friday/Friday evening with the models depicting a rather impressive clipper. Large scale ascent with this short wave along with good low-mid level frontogenetic forcing (which is further strengthened by low-mid level WAA) should result in a widespread snow, and this system has the potential for a solid 1-3+ inch snowfall. The main question is just the track, with the NAM and GFS supporting the axis across the northeast half of the CWA, while the ECMWF would suggest the better forcing and snow would remain north/northeast of the CWA. I remain cautionary but have boosted pops from St. Louis northward to account for the consensus solution. The final short wave in this initial series is on target for Saturday. Both the GFS and CMC GEM would have yet another round of measurable snowfall, while the ECMWF is totally dry. Hence the forecast for this time frame has a greater degree of uncertainty and pops only in the chance range.
Idk it feels like we cld take a snapshot of the radar from the last storm or at least an accum map showing us getting missed to the south; and combine that with a radar image or accum map of next friday missing us to the northeast; and making a tshirt out of that. Lol. We will see.
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 22, 2019 17:26:37 GMT -6
I'm in the kitchen with Dinah strumming on the ol' banjo.
Waiting for snow The first of the year I just can't believe That it almost is here Like cousins and Christmas And places to go Nothing takes longer Than waiting for snow - John McCutcheon
Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 17:52:16 GMT -6
Bye bye snowpack to the north
North of STL
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