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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2019 17:55:18 GMT -6
I'm on the bus with my girlfriend going to the cave in Fairview Heights for some kratom.
This PV anomaly is vast.
I think the clipper track will be alright.
Also the clipper Friday.
Will have WAA snow and large scale ascent from the stout vort maximum.
So even if the LSA lift is NE of 55/70.
I'm seeing 1-2" from the WAA.
This system potentially will drop 3-5" in a narrow band just North of the H5 vorticity track
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 17:56:17 GMT -6
Bye bye snowpack to the north You aren't far enough north...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 18:03:42 GMT -6
Its probably a good time to mention that there will be huge temps swings depending on clipper tracks. The warmups are usually underforecast when a clipper tracks north of the area. Also, compression as a clipper approaches usually causes temps to jump.
Just some things to keep in mind since we are moving into clipper season.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 22, 2019 18:16:46 GMT -6
Tropopause all the way down to 850mb in Minnesota Sunday on the GFS.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 22, 2019 18:24:21 GMT -6
Why is it that when it rains, the metro is always in the bullseye? Ugh
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2019 18:27:21 GMT -6
Okay so after I just look at the GFS model the last three runs it for the Friday system
When you look at where the vort maximum.
And 850 mb of our warm air advection regime.
it looks like the systems like inverted somebody please help me understand why these features are so far to the southwest and yet the models trying to send the system straight through St Louis.
I would think by just looking at that the system would probably travel from just north of Kansas City down between St Louis and rolla.
the only thing I found it doesn't really match up is the vorticity at seven hundred millibars is a f****** clown show.
Maybe the nearest surface features are poorly resolved because of that.
I mean the vortex City maximum travel through eastern Kansas Miss Southwestern Missouri goes in the Oklahoma and then Arkansas
But the surface low pressure travels directly through St Louis out of Northwest Missouri.
That's a pretty big gap for such a short wavelength systems
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2019 18:41:16 GMT -6
Tropopause all the way down to 850mb in Minnesota Sunday on the GFS. The polar gradient on the gfs after hour 120 is insanity Like 50-60F over a few miles
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 22, 2019 19:30:29 GMT -6
Bye bye snowpack to the north You aren't far enough north... Yours will take a good hit too
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 19:35:10 GMT -6
You aren't far enough north... Yours will take a good hit too Yeah, I was referring to Rockford lol. About to get slammed by heavy snow before the changeover though.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2019 19:41:18 GMT -6
EPS brings the polar vortex all the way down to the great lakes next week Wow!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2019 20:00:20 GMT -6
EPS brings the polar vortex all the way down to the great lakes next week Wow! Of that happens it would be chilly. Snow cover would be nice so it could be 10 degrees colder. Maximize it if it's goin g to happen.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 22, 2019 20:01:27 GMT -6
What a bleepin' mess outside. 42 miserable *. I am done..........with this rant.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 22, 2019 20:03:50 GMT -6
Of that happens it would be chilly. Snow cover would be nice so it could be 10 degrees colder. Maximize it if it's goin g to happen. That should take care of the mud.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 22, 2019 20:18:04 GMT -6
Occasionally getting some pretty heavy downpours. Didn't expect it to be quite this intense.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 22, 2019 20:23:34 GMT -6
Temp is a rising here......up to 41 and .4” of rain so far.
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Post by jeepers on Jan 22, 2019 20:38:54 GMT -6
EPS brings the polar vortex all the way down to the great lakes next week Welp, that will stop the griping re the mild winter from my WI cousin. Let the griping about the cold, commence! LOL 42 degrees, raining 1.07 inches today Seriously thought that we were going to just get spit on. Snow is rapidly melting except in the shoveled areas, but I literally had a sheet ice pond at the lowest level of the yard that may take longer to melt.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 22, 2019 20:49:46 GMT -6
This storm seems to be moving very slow , I didn’t expect this much rain
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Post by jkfriedmann on Jan 22, 2019 20:58:23 GMT -6
We just drove from St. James to Eureka and it was steady rain the entire time. Gross.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2019 21:05:19 GMT -6
Sometimes I wonder if the people on the weather forum watch the weather.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 21:20:56 GMT -6
00z Icon nails the metro Saturday.
One of these clippers will land a 2-5 inch hit.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 22, 2019 21:25:39 GMT -6
Rain.....Imagine if this was Jan.
Oh wait...
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 22, 2019 21:35:51 GMT -6
I tell ya what the spring greenery should be brilliant this year with all this ground moisture from a wet winter
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on Jan 22, 2019 21:38:44 GMT -6
WWA started at 9PM here....it's 45 degrees.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 21:44:25 GMT -6
The 00z icon is deadly cold in the day 5-7 range. Days where it barely gets above zero and nights in the -10 to -15 range.
The cold is no joke.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2019 21:52:26 GMT -6
The 00z icon is deadly cold in the day 5-7 range. Days where it barely gets above zero and nights in the -10 to -15 range. The cold is no joke. IF it happens.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 21:55:55 GMT -6
The 00z icon is deadly cold in the day 5-7 range. Days where it barely gets above zero and nights in the -10 to -15 range. The cold is no joke. IF it happens. Right, but it's not 10 days away and we hype up winter storms that are less severe than this potential artic outbreak. This would be potentially historic cold. Especially if that last hybrid clipper drops some snow.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 22:14:37 GMT -6
The 00z gfs is a Central Illinois mauler with the hybrid clipper Sunday-Monday before the artic hammer drops.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2019 22:18:18 GMT -6
Give me the snow, don't really care for the sub-zero cold
I think being in Minneapolis last year and not seeing temps above zero for several days ruined sub-zero cold for me
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 22, 2019 22:24:09 GMT -6
Give me the snow, don't really care for the sub-zero cold I think being in Minneapolis last year and not seeing temps above zero for several days ruined sub-zero cold for me Then you are a fan of the 00z gfs which takes aim at Illinois and Indiana. Will be interesting to see the FV3.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 22, 2019 22:28:41 GMT -6
Give me the snow, don't really care for the sub-zero cold I think being in Minneapolis last year and not seeing temps above zero for several days ruined sub-zero cold for me Then you are a fan of the 00z gfs which takes aim at Illinois and Indiana. Will be interesting to see the FV3. Chicago can hog all the sub zero cold, just send all the snow to STL. Sounds like a deal?
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