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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2019 10:06:26 GMT -6
It wouldn't surprise me to see that storm on Monday come a bit further S and keep any big warm up at bay. Most models have snow falling on Friday, Saturday/Sunday and again Mon PM/Tues on the backside of that storm. I'm betting on at least light snowcover IMBY...and well below zero lows next week. It's possible that we don't get above zero for a high next Wednesday. To me, with the orientation of the jet stream, I would expect more of an inverted trough or occluded front to extend South through Saint Louis. I went 40 for the the high but falling sharply.
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Post by birddog on Jan 24, 2019 10:08:58 GMT -6
Winds changed over to the NW here about a half hour ago. Temp steadily dropping. Down to 23.4.
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Post by rb1108 on Jan 24, 2019 10:16:52 GMT -6
Are you thinking we will have any snow cover when the extreme cold hits early next week, Chris?
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2019 10:26:28 GMT -6
NWS and some other forecasts are going to have to slash temps next week if models keep coming in that cold. My point forecast has a low of 4* Wednesday AM and a high of 14*...I think it will be much colder than that. I agree. I keep going colder than the forecast before me...but I am trying to temper the chill after the Euro and GFS both backpedled from this last batch of sub zero weather that never materialized. It seems pretty clear that the extreme cold will be tied to the existence of snow cover and by that I mean the teens below 0 or colder One of our senior temp forecasters did some studies on extreme temps in St Louis... without snow cover we need 1000-500mb thickness below 500m... more like low 490s (to get to the -10s). I see some models get close to 500m but not into the 490s yet. Not sure we will see "deep" snow cover.
As I type this... the GFS is coming in around 495m (so that may be a game changer).
Edit- 486
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2019 10:34:59 GMT -6
The 12z ggem and it's cold bias sure produces some ridiculous outputs. Has STL at -20 in a week and Chicago at -40.
Record in STL is -18 and in Chicago is -27.
How cold did St. Louis get on New year's last year? I remember it was really cold and I dont think there was much snow cover.
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Post by birddog on Jan 24, 2019 10:45:53 GMT -6
The coldest I remember was in January 1977. Our dairy barn thermometer ( outside Mercury thermometer) was at 22 below. Was not fun milking cows in those temps, trying to keep water open for livestock was a full time job!
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Jan 24, 2019 10:49:59 GMT -6
I remember -13f during that New Years snow and arctic outbreak in 2014, and a high of -5.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2019 10:52:07 GMT -6
Yea I had -11 for a low and -2 for a high after the Jan. 2014 storm. I think we had a similar or colder outbreak in February 1996 though I don't remember the actual values. I do remember being off school though.
I still expect these projections to moderate based on what we have seen happen thus far. I'm hoping they will.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 10:52:25 GMT -6
My temps were -11*/-5* New Years 2014.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2019 10:54:05 GMT -6
Are you thinking we will have any snow cover when the extreme cold hits early next week, Chris? Hard to say. What light coating we may get in the couple of fast hitting clippers this weekend may melt in the brief warm-up ahead of the Clipper. In fact...I played it a little warmer for daytime highs both Saturday and Sunday (35) because of the model tendency to be too cold southeast of Clipper system in the warm sector. So that alone could melt off the little bit of snow that may fall in this weekend's train of clippers. So... we may have to rely on whatever we get in the wake of the polar front next week...and there could be a decent/fast snow for a few hours in the strong frontogenesis that will exist near and behind the cold front late Monday. Anything that is left on the ground Monday evening will be there for a long time.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2019 10:54:35 GMT -6
I agree. I keep going colder than the forecast before me...but I am trying to temper the chill after the Euro and GFS both backpedled from this last batch of sub zero weather that never materialized. It seems pretty clear that the extreme cold will be tied to the existence of snow cover and by that I mean the teens below 0 or colder One of our senior temp forecasters did some studies on extreme temps in St Louis... without snow cover we need 1000-500mb thickness below 500m... more like low 490s (to get to the -10s). I see some models get close to 500m but not into the 490s yet. Not sure we will see "deep" snow cover.
As I type this... the GFS is coming in around 495m (so that may be a game changer).
Edit- 486
Thats good to know. Im going to have to tuck that info away. I wld think that snow cover of an inch cld preclude the 490s prerequisite, but we may not have that much snow. Of course im really not interested in sub 0 readings. I do think theres some potential for a plains snowstorm around the beginning of feb if we can keep the split flow from developing.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2019 10:57:26 GMT -6
12z ukmet gets the Sunday-monday hybrid clipper down to KC before swinging ENE.
That would certainly help keep temps down and support BRTN's prediction. I have noticed the euro and ukmet have not been in lockstep this season for some reason so no guarantee that the 12z euro follows suit.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2019 10:59:54 GMT -6
The coldest I remember was in January 1977. Our dairy barn thermometer ( outside Mercury thermometer) was at 22 below. Was not fun milking cows in those temps, trying to keep water open for livestock was a full time job! i was still in cape and the coldest we hit that year down there was -18 and numerous times it was minus teens. Snowcover existed from a 3 inch snow followed by a 10.5 inch blizzard a few days, numerous clippers and several moderate ( 4 to 6 inch snows).
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Post by bear1 on Jan 24, 2019 11:00:32 GMT -6
Brrrrrrrr.....Cold front just came thru here, temps were 34° a 1/2 hr ago, down to 28°!!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2019 11:18:17 GMT -6
The 12z FV3 is now the outlier, being much weaker with the clipper and actually hitting STL with it on Monday.
Models had more consensus 3 days ago.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2019 11:22:37 GMT -6
Canadian has snow with -11 Thursday AM... sounding is interesting- column warms back up into the DGZ
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 24, 2019 11:22:59 GMT -6
The Monday clipper would have to come in pretty far south I’d think for STL to get a good snow out of it. Unfortunately, I think the sweet spot will be around Macomb, IL and points north.
But, as I’ve said before, it’s a long way off and there isn’t model consistency let alone run to run. Clippers are such a pain
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 12:10:37 GMT -6
Models could still back off...but next week's cold looks historic across parts of the Midwest to me. I really think that's the big weather story over the next week.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2019 12:20:33 GMT -6
Models could still back off...but next week's cold looks historic across parts of the Midwest to me. I really think that's the big weather story over the next week. If the PV comes down to the great lakes like most models are showing, then I have a hard time not seeing record cold across the Midwest.
The kind of cold some models are showing is some seriously dangerous stuff
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2019 12:22:45 GMT -6
I think someone mentioned this, but the HRRR and RAP look really good with the clipper tomorrow
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2019 12:31:25 GMT -6
They and the NAM did the best with the clipper on Sunday
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 12:32:12 GMT -6
That clipper for Sunday continues to look more stout by the run...GFS has a surface/850mb reflection with a well-developed WAA wing setting up along the river.
I wouldn't be surprised if we end up getting 2-3" on the ground by Monday.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2019 12:33:17 GMT -6
What are they showing Snow?
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 24, 2019 12:35:16 GMT -6
Radar back up ahead of schedule.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2019 12:38:03 GMT -6
What are they showing Snow? Both have an area of snow developing over the region tomorrow dropping 1-2"
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Jan 24, 2019 12:40:49 GMT -6
Radar back up ahead of schedule. And it’s firing a laser straight south apparently. That’s a cool new feature😂🤣
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2019 12:43:42 GMT -6
Anything good on the Euro?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 24, 2019 12:51:41 GMT -6
Is there going to be a lot of wind with the temperature drop? I'm guessing once we get to the coldest part of the airmass we'll be under the high so there wouldn't be much.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2019 12:53:05 GMT -6
Anything good on the Euro? If you live in Peroria its pretty epic. Otherwise minor clippers and extreme cold.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 13:08:04 GMT -6
Is there going to be a lot of wind with the temperature drop? I'm guessing once we get to the coldest part of the airmass we'll be under the high so there wouldn't be much. Nothing crazy but it only takes a slight breeze to send WCIs plummeting once it gets down around or below zero.
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