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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 24, 2019 13:18:08 GMT -6
Is there going to be a lot of wind with the temperature drop? I'm guessing once we get to the coldest part of the airmass we'll be under the high so there wouldn't be much. Nothing crazy but it only takes a slight breeze to send WCIs plummeting once it gets down around or below zero. That's good. But you are right - any breeze with those temperatures just adds to the miseries. I was thinking about that January 77 polar outbreak Birddog mentioned. There was some serious wind to go along with those temps. Witness the “Wind Chill Bowl“ in Cincinnati with wind chill approaching -60.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 24, 2019 13:19:37 GMT -6
The 12z ggem and it's cold bias sure produces some ridiculous outputs. Has STL at -20 in a week and Chicago at -40. Record in STL is -18 and in Chicago is -27. How cold did St. Louis get on New year's last year? I remember it was really cold and I dont think there was much snow cover.
I looked that up a couple days ago. -6F with a trace of snow depth on New Year's at KSTL.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2019 13:30:16 GMT -6
The 12z ggem and it's cold bias sure produces some ridiculous outputs. Has STL at -20 in a week and Chicago at -40. Record in STL is -18 and in Chicago is -27. How cold did St. Louis get on New year's last year? I remember it was really cold and I dont think there was much snow cover.
I looked that up a couple days ago. -6F with a trace of snow depth on New Year's at KSTL.
Thanks, I think -10 with less than 2 inches of snow is doable next week at KSTL. Unfortunately, I think I might get to -20 or so with a WC of -50.
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 24, 2019 13:31:26 GMT -6
Here's a cross section view of the GFS bringing the stratospheric intrusion all the way down close to 850mb across MO/IL next week.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2019 13:33:19 GMT -6
You also have to be very mindful of any cloud cover in this Northwest flow as it can play havoc with temperatures in a major way. A crystal clear night could allow temperatures to drop into the teens below 0 but the same conditions with a very thin overcast may only drop to 1 or 2 above
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 14:02:02 GMT -6
You also have to be very mindful of any cloud cover in this Northwest flow as it can play havoc with temperatures in a major way. A crystal clear night could allow temperatures to drop into the teens below 0 but the same conditions with a very thin overcast may only drop to 1 or 2 above Good point. Temp trends can get wild with an airmass that cold where very little input has a large effect on the temperature.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 14:03:59 GMT -6
Here's a cross section view of the GFS bringing the stratospheric intrusion all the way down close to 850mb across MO/IL next week.
Could be some air quality issues from ozone if that comes down to the surface...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2019 14:12:15 GMT -6
18z nam is favoring Central Illinois for accumulating snow tomorrow.
I think most will see snow breakout and maybe a coating.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 24, 2019 15:12:46 GMT -6
Flurries in Farmington right now.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 24, 2019 15:35:57 GMT -6
Flurries in Farmington right now. Ditto at Vinita Park (Page/170).
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 24, 2019 15:40:07 GMT -6
I had previously thought that there was potential for the southerm storm track to get active around or slightly after the first of february. Cpc does predict continued below normal temps and in week 2, above normal precip. The prgnostic discussion indicates this to be unabated moisture around a surface high in the southeast. Meanwhile a trough is anticipated to develop off the pacific coast. This kind of pattern will probably give us 1 shot at a soutwestern storm and that is if timing with a departing arctic airmass with moisture can occur. Odds of this are quite low, but have happened this year. The conflicting signal are the ensemble predictions of a positive to moderately positive nao despite a strongly negative ao. As brtn points out, models tend to erode cold air too quickly. Op gfs says a couple cutters duting thus timeframe but this is too far out to accurately predict. I think after the first week of feb, we will see a relaxation of a pattern supportive of arctic intrusions. During this time, we can see some heavy rain with attendant flooding threats but sometime in late february, cold air and moisture shhould meet up giving us another shot at heavy snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2019 15:48:30 GMT -6
In 1996 st louis got down to -12 I think it was, with no snow cover. Wonder what the thicknesses were at that time?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2019 15:55:00 GMT -6
The record of -27 in Chicago and -18 in St louis were set in 1985. I think that's the 2nd coldest temp ever in st louis. Joe B has compared next week to the 1985 outbreak, lol. We'll see. We actually had snow on the ground that time.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 24, 2019 15:55:41 GMT -6
From the NWS
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2019 16:10:01 GMT -6
In 1996 st louis got down to -12 I think it was, with no snow cover. Wonder what the thicknesses were at that time? This was 1996... looks about 498 thickness- high just about overhead. This is one we did a study on and I believe the thickness was closer to 495 when said and done. 850s in the lower -20s
This was 1985... just ridiculous- looks about 488-492 thickness and this one had some wind (likely why we didn't fall lower than -18)- 850s in the -30s
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2019 16:14:39 GMT -6
wow, cool charts, thanks Coz. 1985 is insane.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 16:22:24 GMT -6
Honestly, 1985 doesn't look too far off from current progs...
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2019 16:28:15 GMT -6
Honestly, 1985 doesn't look too far off from current progs... 500/700/850 heights just about the same in the core- just positioned a bit further east.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2019 16:35:44 GMT -6
I could see 18 below in st.louis next week if we have some snow cover. Otherwise I would say the high Wednesday or Thursday may stay below zero. Which is extremely rare in st.louis
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Post by RyanD on Jan 24, 2019 16:37:53 GMT -6
Honestly, 1985 doesn't look too far off from current progs... I was thinking the same thing!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 24, 2019 16:49:16 GMT -6
I've seen one run of a model..the euro, several days ago with 850's around -30 or so here
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2019 16:49:23 GMT -6
Honestly, 1985 doesn't look too far off from current progs... Sure does. Im going to take a hard look at the 00z data... but thinking I may take the lead and cut temps with my morning update. Start with something in the -5 to -10 range... and then adjust from there.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 17:16:44 GMT -6
I've seen one run of a model..the euro, several days ago with 850's around -30 or so here 12z GFS brings the -30*C isotherm to I-70 with a bubble of -40*C across N IL...crazy. The GEM looks similar but a bit slower with the core. EC is further NE and not nearly as extreme. A lot will depend on the lobe that swings around the W/SW flank of the vortex...if that digs it will bring the cold core across the region.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 17:17:08 GMT -6
Honestly, 1985 doesn't look too far off from current progs... Sure does. Im going to take a hard look at the 00z data... but thinking I may take the lead and cut temps with my morning update. Start with something in the -5 to -10 range... and then adjust from there. I think that's a good call at this point.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 17:23:51 GMT -6
Yeah, it's the GEM...but the 12z run shows snowfall here from clippers every 12-24hrs for pretty much a week straight. You have to figure we cash in on a couple of those and get some snowcover...it's definitely going to be very wintry this weekend into next week. Everyone should be preparing for a stretch of severe cold...check your batteries, coolant, and fuel level in your vehicles...pipes, furnace and back up heat for your home. Make sure you are stocked up and ready for power outages if they occur.
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 24, 2019 17:26:11 GMT -6
1985 over with what the current GFS has... easier to compare
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2019 17:43:05 GMT -6
I'm still skeptical...will believe it if the models still show it Sunday. Hard for me to bet against the pattern but with that said I will be cutting some more firewood this weekend to prepare.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 24, 2019 17:44:49 GMT -6
Yeah, it's the GEM...but the 12z run shows snowfall here from clippers every 12-24hrs for pretty much a week straight. You have to figure we cash in on a couple of those and get some snowcover...it's definitely going to be very wintry this weekend into next week. Everyone should be preparing for a stretch of severe cold...check your batteries, coolant, and fuel level in your vehicles...pipes, furnace and back up heat for your home. Make sure you are stocked up and ready for power outages if they occur. I was thinking something like what we saw last Sunday afternoon or a little less. But when the ground is really cold even a half inch causes big problems
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 24, 2019 17:51:07 GMT -6
1985 was preceeded by sudden stratospheric warming (which resulted in vortex split) on December 31, 1984.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 24, 2019 17:56:53 GMT -6
1985 was preceeded by sudden stratospheric warming (which resulted in vortex split) on December 31, 1984. Lock it in!
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