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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 0:35:14 GMT -6
Ya that’s an interesting run. It does look slightly slower as well. If by chance that runs true...bigger headlines would be needed. But nonetheless a solid looking run.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 0:41:20 GMT -6
On weather.us the euro has 3-4" for most in the immediate metro.
Maybe a little over 4" right on the IL side of the river.
Has snow from 630pm in Belleville until 11-12am when the dry slot starts punching in and we change to light sleet and freezing rain.
I'm not seeing any indication of ice really.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 0:44:34 GMT -6
I dont think the NAM handled the last system well at all. It was terrible on amounts (waaaay to dry) and location until about 36 hours out when it finally decided it wanted it to snow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 0:46:04 GMT -6
Hope Iowa enjoys their mega blizzard next weekend
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 0:47:31 GMT -6
The EURO is fast and furious with 0.4" qpf in a little over 3 hours.
Depicts be a thumping hit of heavy snow along and SE of 44 into the metro.
With moderate snow NW of that.
Surface temps drop to around 30-31F once the heavy snow starts.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 0:50:12 GMT -6
I dont think the NAM handled the last system well at all. It was terrible on amounts (waaaay to dry) and location until about 36 hours out when it finally decided it wanted it to snow. I agree at the extended part of it but I kinda thought the purpose to begin really utilizing the NAM is with 48hrs. So my thought is it did well within that range. That’s why I think it next run will be telling. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 0:52:57 GMT -6
The EURO is fast and furious with 0.4" qpf in a little over 3 hours. Depicts be a thumping hit of heavy snow along and SE of 44 into the metro. With moderate snow NW of that. Surface temps drop to around 30-31F once the heavy snow starts. That’s an evil dry slot. Hard to imagine it dumping snow that fast so this is depicting pretty heavy snow right at onset. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 0:54:20 GMT -6
The EURO is fast and furious with 0.4" qpf in a little over 3 hours. Depicts be a thumping hit of heavy snow along and SE of 44 into the metro. With moderate snow NW of that. Surface temps drop to around 30-31F once the heavy snow starts. That’s an evil dry slot. Hard to imagine it dumping snow that fast so this is depicting pretty heavy snow right at onset. I agree, I would think that would be sleet and if it is freezing rain I can’t imagine it accumulating that much with 31* surface temps. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 1:50:53 GMT -6
EPS has 3" over much of the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 1:54:16 GMT -6
GEFS also nudged up amounts to 2-3”
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 2:03:43 GMT -6
Just for the heck of it, the SREF plumes are at 1.8"
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 2:08:14 GMT -6
NAM looking like its gunna roll in hot again. Good shield of precip bubbling up towards us from the south.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 2:28:56 GMT -6
LOL @ the NAM. If that happens...
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 2:29:03 GMT -6
6z NAM has done exact as I was expecting now that it’s within 48hrs. It’s now correcting its north placement further south and slams along and southeast of 44 with 4-6”. It actually goes Kaboom in Southeast Mo with over a Foot lol. It is about 2-3 hours faster with the onset. But it’s a straight epic run.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 2:32:05 GMT -6
Lol what??
The NAM drops 8" at KBLV.
6-9" for the Southern 1/3rd of the metro.
The 6" line is Union Mo to Troy, IL.
Much less North of 70.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 2:34:14 GMT -6
That’s a very high DGZ with near 100kt winds ripping through it  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 2:39:22 GMT -6
Exactly...LOL..it ain't happening. No way.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 2:40:03 GMT -6
Why I think the NAM is best to begin using for placement within 48hrs and not 72hrs. Here’s what that 24hrs difference makes. Pretty easy to see how it focuses too much precip to the north weakening the southeast band but comes back and catches this within 36-48hrs. 6z yesterday:  6z tonight:  |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 2:41:52 GMT -6
That’s a very high DGZ with near 100kt winds ripping through it That's a little picky tho. Snow growth really starts at -8C. Would definitely be good to go. And more importantly is the entire column is much cooler than earlier runs even with the jacked up precipitation |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 2:45:54 GMT -6
That’s a very high DGZ with near 100kt winds ripping through it That's a little picky tho. Snow growth really starts at -8C. Would definitely be good to go. And more importantly is the entire column is much cooler than earlier runs even with the jacked up precipitation That is also a very notable difference as well. Definitely helping amp up those totals. Not sure any of us thought it would throw a high end warning in some areas to the south tonight though. Lol that’s just crazy but actually believable looking at those cells that appear convective running into the cold column. So Euro is good for 3-6 / NAM 4-13 tonight lol. Good trends! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 3:07:38 GMT -6
The hires Nam sucks but is better.
1-2" in MO.
2-4" IL side.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 3:16:49 GMT -6
The hires Nam sucks but is better. 1-2" in MO. 2-4" IL side. My guess would be because it hasn’t yet weakened that snow swath up in eastern Iowa and is only a degree or two colder but is trending our direction. Hopefully it catches this in the next run or two to give us better confirmation. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 3:32:16 GMT -6
Update from the NWS has increased totals slightly, still 2-4 for most of the area. Major limiting factor they mention is the duration which is around 6 hours.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 4:27:23 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 4:48:50 GMT -6
Chris saying 1-3. Again. This is really annoying, lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 4:49:56 GMT -6
I inherited 1-2... going to nudge that up a bit and post 1-3 for now. RPM looks believable at 1-3... but NAM cannot be tossed out either. WAA can get beefy fast if temps can stay cold enough.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 5:05:53 GMT -6
I am starting to think we may end up with a classic split between WAA snow and that driven by shortwave....the split occurring just northwest of STL.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 5:16:18 GMT -6
It better be NW of here. By about 50 miles. Or more.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 5:19:02 GMT -6
You will be happy to hear I think it will be...more Jeff city...to bowing green line.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 5:27:24 GMT -6
Good news, lol. Now give me 4 inches , or 5.
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