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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 5:34:37 GMT -6
Most of the snows we have had this season have been immediately followed by warmer air. November's snopw was followed by about 50* the following day, it was almost 40 the same day.
December was rain, lol.
January's snow had temps just above freezing the last couple of days, then stayed above freezing in the 30's a couple days after. All the snow was gone in like 5 days.
Temps into the mid 30's this weekend after Friday's snow.
Finally this Wednesday will be well into the 40's.
Snow is good about anytime, but having a nice big one followed by an arctic intrusion is best, instead of with a retreating cold airmass.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 5:35:29 GMT -6
I actually kind of like the look of the Euro.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 5:37:13 GMT -6
Under the snow..we still have a little in places in our yard, is nasty muck. With wet snow, melting later this week, temps getting into the 50's possibly 60's on Saturday, and MORE rain this weekend, it's just going to be impossible to go outside without a damn submarine. Or at least thigh highs. It is nasty.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 6:19:52 GMT -6
Only have looked at Nam and gfs this morning....if i were to base my opinion off those two, im not sure that snow and ice would stick around to wednesday morning. It looks like thickness on those two models gets well above snow thresholds overnight. If i get time, i might lookat the 12z models, but from a winter precip perspective, im going to be guarded.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 6:20:25 GMT -6
6z euro is a bit south of 00z and about .1 drier across the area.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 6:32:17 GMT -6
Most of the precip will be done long before wed morning. When the warmer is around. Most will be in the evening and early overnight. As the disco points out also, heavier precip rates will help keep temps in check through the column.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 6:46:56 GMT -6
Ok thx for that info.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 18, 2019 7:06:32 GMT -6
Most models are bring the 60F dewpoints into the southern part of the area next weekend. Severe weather may end up being a concern, perhaps even a significant concern, with that storm. Let's hope things don't get too unstable because shear, right down to the lowest levels even, is very abundant.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 7:27:37 GMT -6
Most models are bring the 60F dewpoints into the southern part of the area next weekend. Severe weather may end up being a concern, perhaps even a significant concern, with that storm. Let's hope things don't get too unstable because shear, right down to the lowest levels even, is very abundant. I had the same thought...needs to be watched. |
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Post by John G -west belleville on Feb 18, 2019 8:06:39 GMT -6
Most models are bring the 60F dewpoints into the southern part of the area next weekend. Severe weather may end up being a concern, perhaps even a significant concern, with that storm. Let's hope things don't get too unstable because shear, right down to the lowest levels even, is very abundant. SPC has a day 6 polygon posted. Chris, don't you have a 60 degree dp in Winter rule? |
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Post by birddog on Feb 18, 2019 8:11:02 GMT -6
Very fine salt shaker snow falling here now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 8:22:54 GMT -6
Lol nam. It and hirea are starting this thing quite a bit later now it looks like. Nam is way crappier than 6z. Nice dry hole over the metro.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 8:30:07 GMT -6
1-3” ... I bet the majority of the metro falls in this group with maybe some isolated 4” amounts in spots. Where I have no idea. I still think 6pm-12am the bulk of the precipitation falls with some light freezing drizzle after midnight through 4am.
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 18, 2019 8:31:07 GMT -6
If this one is going to happen let it get started by 6pm and finish up by midnight that way I have a fighting chance to get lots opened up before people start going to work Wednesday morning.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 8:34:18 GMT -6
Most models are bring the 60F dewpoints into the southern part of the area next weekend. Severe weather may end up being a concern, perhaps even a significant concern, with that storm. Let's hope things don't get too unstable because shear, right down to the lowest levels even, is very abundant. Agreed...I use the 10*C h85 isotherm as a rough northern bound for cool season severe wx in the warm sector of a well developed cyclone. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 8:35:17 GMT -6
This is some strong WAA... I think sooner not later is the way to go for a start time.
I'm sticking with "developing during the evening rush" wording.
I like the 1-3" range...nothing changing there.
60+ Td's are an indicator of possible severe weather in the cold season...so yes...definitely needs to be watched.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 8:36:12 GMT -6
00z EC trended warmer, 00z NAM trended colder. Models are still all over the place with the thermo profile tomorrow evening. But it still looks like a solid hit of heavy snow for several hours at least before transitioning to sleet/ZR and finally drizzle.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 18, 2019 8:51:22 GMT -6
So is tomorrow evening/night that last shot at winter precipitation for the near future? Is see the weekend looks warm and rainy. Ugh.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 8:58:00 GMT -6
Yes , tomorrow is it for a while maybe 7-10 days then the pattern looks to get colder again around beginning of March
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Post by tedrick65 on Feb 18, 2019 9:09:18 GMT -6
Very fine salt shaker snow falling here now. Here too and at KSUS. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 9:16:37 GMT -6
Well that’s a poopy run of the Icon. It’s starting to go from what’s been a great model to one that just sucks lately. Gives everyone 0-1”.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 18, 2019 9:22:39 GMT -6
First, EPS and GEFS are decidedly north with this weekends storm now. Odds favor us being primarily in the warm sector for this event.
Second, here is the QPF roundup for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning around the airport. Amounts are slightly higher to the south and less to the north.
9Z SREF - 0.45"
6Z GEFS - 0.40"
3Z SREF - 0.50"
0Z EPS - 0.40"
0Z GEFS - 0.40"
12Z NAM - 0.25" (0.20 to 0.30 range)
12Z ICON - 0.30"
6Z GFS - 0.25"
6Z NAM - 0.15" (0.10 to 0.20 range)
0Z UKMET - 0.15"
0Z ECMWF - 0.40"
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 9:27:14 GMT -6
12z NAM 6hr snowfall output looks pretty reasonable...it has widespread 1-2" with a band of 3-5" N of 70 favoring MO. That's about what I expect.  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 18, 2019 9:43:56 GMT -6
A few snow flurries down here in Sparta
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 9:50:05 GMT -6
Yeah im in the 1 to 2 camp too. Even if some places pick up 3 or 4, by the time morning rolls around, compaction and melting will take a toll. Unless 12z comes in alot different, im thinking no changes in going forecasts around the area, which seem to signify a light amt and low impact.
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Post by dschreib on Feb 18, 2019 9:50:53 GMT -6
12z NAM 6hr snowfall output looks pretty reasonable...it has widespread 1-2" with a band of 3-5" N of 70 favoring MO. That's about what I expect. Looks like another...Gonzo... |
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Post by REB on Feb 18, 2019 10:36:25 GMT -6
Husband just walked the dog. He’s reporting light graupel.
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 18, 2019 11:00:42 GMT -6
Sunshine in Festus makes me happy!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 11:02:16 GMT -6
I still like 1-3” with a glaze of ice on top
Higher amounts are possible but I’m not hedging my bets right now
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 18, 2019 11:12:12 GMT -6
12Z GFS is 0.30" to the northwest and 0.60" to the southeast of the metro.
Verbatim on the 06Z Euro hourly temperatures it looks like the metro area may only see 4 hours of < 32F surface temperatures. This is from 8-12 Tuesday night.
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