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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 11:20:09 GMT -6
I still like 1-3” with a glaze of ice on top Higher amounts are possible but I’m not hedging my bets right now A sound forecast! |
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Post by jeepers on Feb 18, 2019 11:31:43 GMT -6
What is the rough timing of this event?
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 18, 2019 11:34:59 GMT -6
It’ll melt sooner than later! Jeepers, Chris said rush hour time frame!
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Post by jeepers on Feb 18, 2019 11:45:12 GMT -6
It’ll melt sooner than later! Jeepers, Chris said rush hour time frame! I'm trying to figure out if it's going to start at the beginning or end of that time frame. Kid is at the end of hockey playoffs and can't miss this practice unless the roads are unsafe. I'm also not going to have him drive it if anything is falling, it would be me. Trying to make contingency plans. A few flakes flying at 5:15 when coming home is different than 2 inches on the untreated road, if ykwim. After that, don't care what it does. LOL |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 11:52:35 GMT -6
I like the idea of 3-5” southeast of 44 and then 2-3” along and about 25 miles northwest in the dry slot going to 2-4” after that. That’s my thoughts.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 12:26:41 GMT -6
12z EURO would verify my my thinking almost exactly.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 18, 2019 12:38:11 GMT -6
12z EURO would verify my my thinking almost exactly. A little northern shift please. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 12:42:54 GMT -6
For those talking start time, here's the SREF pops by p-type 18z is noon and 00z is 6pm You can see snow pops start to rise by 3pm but don't get into likely category until 8-9pm This is for Lambert btw  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 12:44:53 GMT -6
12z EURO would verify my my thinking almost exactly. A little northern shift please. Euro continues to be the warm outlier, bringing the h85 0* isotherm up to the metro by ~10pm. Along/N of 70 is definitely favored. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 12:45:10 GMT -6
12z EURO would verify my my thinking almost exactly. Not sure about that. Its not printing out much snow at all S of 44 |
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Post by jeepers on Feb 18, 2019 12:46:36 GMT -6
Thank you, that helps tremendously. I know nothing is ever written in stone, just wanted an idea as to what the trend is.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 18, 2019 12:59:37 GMT -6
That Columbia to Chicago dry slot is clearly wrong....
It is supposed to be through Saint Louis. We even made T-shirt’s
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 13:05:48 GMT -6
12z EURO would verify my my thinking almost exactly. Not sure about that. Its not printing out much snow at all S of 44 Wish I could post it. It looks like a nice 3-4” band to me. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 18, 2019 13:07:58 GMT -6
I don't know what to think about this setup...don't have too high of hopes for sure. One thing with the Euro on ptypes - it held on to a lot of zr/sleet for me on this last system up until the very end, when I ended up seeing primarily snow. Having said that, I'm having a hard time seeing much snow from this one, but I've been surprised this year already more than once.
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Post by scmhack on Feb 18, 2019 13:28:20 GMT -6
I could use a good storm to track to distract myself now. Just had some stress that I did nothing wrong and cannot control but can't help but feel it. So a nice surprise 5" in south city would make me and my desire to drive to escape very happy.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 18, 2019 14:08:36 GMT -6
The Euro is down to about 0.2" to 0.4" through the metro area.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 18, 2019 14:08:51 GMT -6
I’m on “vacation” this week so anything goes for me lol. Lots of projects to do but all inside stuff
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 14:17:27 GMT -6
18z NAM back to its ultra amped solution
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 18, 2019 14:23:05 GMT -6
Extended RAP, Hires NAM, and NAM just went boom.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 18, 2019 14:24:01 GMT -6
Extended HRRRrr is a little east but not worried.
This is going to come in fast and furious.
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 18, 2019 14:25:21 GMT -6
Extended RAP, Hires NAM, and NAM just went boom. And what does Boom mean? |
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 18, 2019 14:28:16 GMT -6
Extended RAP, Hires NAM, and NAM just went boom. And what does Boom mean? A solid 3-6 hours of very heavy snow. |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 18, 2019 14:31:06 GMT -6
A solid 3-6 hours of very heavy snow. Thanks. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 18, 2019 14:43:41 GMT -6
I hate to be that guy but could there be thunder with this thing tomorrow evening?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 14:45:22 GMT -6
could something like this ever happen again in this part of the country...In one week, it will be the 40th anniversary of the Blizzard of 79. I had emailed the National Weather Service about the storm on the 25th anniversary....they responded with an extract from Storm Data, a monthly summary detailing location and severity of weather events affecting the U.S. Here is the verbiage from that response: "Heavy snow fell most of the day Sunday with wind gusts up to 50 mph. The heaviest snow fell in a band 100 miles wide centered on a line from West Plains to Cape Girardeau. Amounts ranged from 10 inches on teh fringes of the band to two feet at Cape Girardeau. Governor Teasdale declared Southeast Missouri a disaster area and called out the Missouri National Guard to give emergency assistance to teh following nine counties: Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Dunklin, Madison, Perry, Scott, Stoddard, and Wayne. Interstate 55 was closed Sunday afternoon until Monday afternoon between Perryville and Cape Girardeau and until Monday evening between Cape Girardeau and Sikeston. Stranded motorists overflowing motels and restaurants were put up and fed in buildings opened as emergency shelters in Benton, Charleston, Jackson, and Sikeston. A U.S. Armyh helicopter from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, airlifted a woman in labor from her home in rural Perry county to the Southeast Missouri Hospital at Cape Girardeau where she gave birth to a bab boy 15 minutes after ariving there. Heavy snow caused the roofs and awnings of numerous buildings to collapse, and the strong winds downed large signs, tree limbs, TV antennas, and power lines." mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1979/us0225.php#picture |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 18, 2019 14:45:59 GMT -6
The mid level convergence is very impressive tomorrow evening- focused just to the south/southeast of the immediate metro. 75kt wind bumping into 20kt wind... even though the soundings are fully saturated tomorrow evening- with that kind of speed convergence I am surprised the lapse rate isn't quite a bit stronger.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 18, 2019 14:48:52 GMT -6
Updated QPF roundup...
15Z SREF - 0.70"
12Z EPS - 0.30"
12Z GEFS - 0.45"
9Z SREF - 0.45"
6Z GEFS - 0.40"
3Z SREF - 0.50"
0Z EPS - 0.40"
0Z GEFS - 0.40"
18Z NAM - 0.35"
12Z ECMWF - 0.30"
12Z UKMET - 0.30"
12Z GFS - 0.45"
12Z NAM - 0.25"
12Z ICON - 0.30"
6Z GFS - 0.25"
6Z NAM - 0.15"
0Z UKMET - 0.15"
0Z ECMWF - 0.40"
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 18, 2019 14:53:43 GMT -6
could something like this ever happen again in this part of the country...In one week, it will be the 40th anniversary of the Blizzard of 79. I had emailed the National Weather Service about the storm on the 25th anniversary....they responded with an extract from Storm Data, a monthly summary detailing location and severity of weather events affecting the U.S. Here is the verbiage from that response: "Heavy snow fell most of the day Sunday with wind gusts up to 50 mph. The heaviest snow fell in a band 100 miles wide centered on a line from West Plains to Cape Girardeau. Amounts ranged from 10 inches on teh fringes of the band to two feet at Cape Girardeau. Governor Teasdale declared Southeast Missouri a disaster area and called out the Missouri National Guard to give emergency assistance to teh following nine counties: Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Dunklin, Madison, Perry, Scott, Stoddard, and Wayne. Interstate 55 was closed Sunday afternoon until Monday afternoon between Perryville and Cape Girardeau and until Monday evening between Cape Girardeau and Sikeston. Stranded motorists overflowing motels and restaurants were put up and fed in buildings opened as emergency shelters in Benton, Charleston, Jackson, and Sikeston. A U.S. Armyh helicopter from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, airlifted a woman in labor from her home in rural Perry county to the Southeast Missouri Hospital at Cape Girardeau where she gave birth to a bab boy 15 minutes after ariving there. Heavy snow caused the roofs and awnings of numerous buildings to collapse, and the strong winds downed large signs, tree limbs, TV antennas, and power lines." mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1979/us0225.php#pictureI'm sure it will happen again someday. We may be dead and gone but chances are it has also happened numerous times over the past millennium. We just will never know. I sure wish it would have waited 40 years to happen though...I bet that was really something to see! |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 18, 2019 14:55:42 GMT -6
Of course it can... and it will
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Bruce - N0NSR
Weather Weenie
Posts: 57 
Snowfall Events: 2.5" - Jan 15, 2015
0.5" - Feb 4, 2015
2.0" - Nov 14-15, 2018
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Post by Bruce - N0NSR on Feb 18, 2019 14:59:10 GMT -6
I'm sure it will happen again someday. We may be dead and gone but chances are it has also happened numerous times over the past millennium. We just will never know. I sure wish it would have waited 40 years to happen though...I bet that was really something to see! The blizzard of 79 was amazing; especially to a 14 year-old. I remember it drifting to the bottoms of the windows on my parent's house. We had new neighbors who had just moved in a month or so before. They were from Florida and had never saw snow except on TV...... They had a 5 year old son who could literally vanish in the drifts! |
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