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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 15:10:18 GMT -6
I hate to be that guy but could there be thunder with this thing tomorrow evening? If it weren't for the warmish mid-level temps...500mb around -15*C...I would say thunder is likely with this setup. But with the upper level system so far removed to the NW, the colder temps aloft never make it here. I still wouldn't be surprised to see a lightning strike or two given the intense lifting processes in play. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 18, 2019 15:13:29 GMT -6
Already highlighted under a 15% risk of Severe Storms Saturday. Could be our first outbreak in quite awhile as even this far the system and dynamics are looking pretty scary.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 18, 2019 15:17:03 GMT -6
Looking longer term after Saturday the pattern will enter make or break time. A lot will depend on the MJO and whether or not the NAO can drop negative even modestly. If it does 1st half of March could be pretty interesting with a couple heavy wet snow potentials. If not and we spin back to Phase 4-6 then Winter will be staked but the pattern will still remain active but several potentially major rounds of severe storms possible through March into at least early April. Either way a long period of boring weather isn't very likely despite what the models are showing long range which doesn't seem like much.
Overall it does appear that the several years of lackluster severe weather seasons could be coming to an end this year with a fast and relatively early start.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 15:20:19 GMT -6
I like that 15z SREF, Bdwg thanks for posting those qpf totals, how has the sref mean done this year? Any one know
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 18, 2019 15:22:47 GMT -6
Winter weather advisory issued starting with 2 inches of snow. I think that's a good start as they can always increase if needed.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 15:32:05 GMT -6
That was more of a rhetorical question btw.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 15:35:47 GMT -6
SREF sure is moist...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 15:39:48 GMT -6
I don't understand how the text of this forecast corresponds with 1-3" of snowfall...they make it sound like a few flakes mixing in with rain which is a terrible forecast. These point forecasts should be done away with...they create more confusion than anything.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 15:41:31 GMT -6
Driest member is .27 Thats interesting |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 18, 2019 15:51:32 GMT -6
Having an on line discussion with someone in Council Bluffs about the snow Iowa has gotten this year, as well as farther north in Minnesota.
Anyone have any insight on the flooding potential as we move in to spring? I know it somewhat depends on how quickly it warms up.
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Post by weatherman222 on Feb 18, 2019 15:52:52 GMT -6
I'm sure it will happen again someday. We may be dead and gone but chances are it has also happened numerous times over the past millennium. We just will never know. I sure wish it would have waited 40 years to happen though...I bet that was really something to see! The blizzard of 79 was amazing; especially to a 14 year-old. I remember it drifting to the bottoms of the windows on my parent's house. We had new neighbors who had just moved in a month or so before. They were from Florida and had never saw snow except on TV...... They had a 5 year old son who could literally vanish in the drifts! Funny you replied to this Bruce. I just texted my mom (Marcy) about this. She remembers it. Dr. Beyer went to their neighbors house by snow skis to deliver a baby. It would be amazing to see. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 15:55:38 GMT -6
Looking longer term after Saturday the pattern will enter make or break time. A lot will depend on the MJO and whether or not the NAO can drop negative even modestly. If it does 1st half of March could be pretty interesting with a couple heavy wet snow potentials. If not and we spin back to Phase 4-6 then Winter will be staked but the pattern will still remain active but several potentially major rounds of severe storms possible through March into at least early April. Either way a long period of boring weather isn't very likely despite what the models are showing long range which doesn't seem like much.
Overall it does appear that the several years of lackluster severe weather seasons could be coming to an end this year with a fast and relatively early start.
NAO and AO are positive next 10 days or so...we could very well have severe storms in early March, with the end of March back to the winter like drizzly, chilly, and flurries, and many on this board will be anxious to turn the corner to Spring. Whatever we end up with, March looks to me to be a weird month.
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Post by bdgwx on Feb 18, 2019 16:00:23 GMT -6
The SREF can sometimes be naughty too... |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 18, 2019 16:03:54 GMT -6
18Z GFS is coming in good... does show lapse rates close to 7*C/KM at the top of the DGZ
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 16:07:19 GMT -6
18Z GFS is coming in good... does show lapse rates close to 7*C/KM at the top of the DGZ Kaboom? |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 18, 2019 16:08:55 GMT -6
18Z GFS is coming in good... does show lapse rates close to 7*C/KM at the top of the DGZ Kaboom? Drum roll...... |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 18, 2019 16:10:14 GMT -6
18Z GFS is coming in good... does show lapse rates close to 7*C/KM at the top of the DGZ Kaboom? Wouldn't rule it out |
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Post by mchafin on Feb 18, 2019 16:12:30 GMT -6
Kaboom
Epic
Meh
Destroy
Drying cloth
Just a few words that some may not realize are actual weather terms. Anyone remember the Atari 2600 game, Kaboom? You had to use the paddle controller. It was awesome.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 18, 2019 16:15:50 GMT -6
Having an on line discussion with someone in Council Bluffs about the snow Iowa has gotten this year, as well as farther north in Minnesota. Anyone have any insight on the flooding potential as we move in to spring? I know it somewhat depends on how quickly it warms up. I had this discussion with March Fuchs at NWS LSX. The spring flood outlook is coming up either later this week or early next week. But he said some of the numbers being churned out by the long river forecast models are eye popping. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 16:17:00 GMT -6
18z FV3 looks really good to
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 18, 2019 16:33:36 GMT -6
Mr Dave Murray latest update from this afternoon........ |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 16:38:02 GMT -6
Things look really good for whoever is on the the Far NW edge of the deeper moisture the NAM has.
For kblv the nam has over 0.5" of qpf as snow before it changes to rain.
I'll take my chances.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 16:38:10 GMT -6
I think there should be more emphasis put on the intensity of the snow rate with tomorrow's event...it has potential to quickly snarl traffic with almost whiteout conditions for several hours.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 16:39:19 GMT -6
I didn’t know Dave still did forecasts. It’s not bad probably a little conservative. I still like my 1-3” , I hope it busts on the low side
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 16:45:38 GMT -6
Someone needs to let Mr. David Murrary know that's not how we do it in the hood.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 18, 2019 16:46:44 GMT -6
We were a good deal colder than I was expecting today as well. I only got to 28. I think Lambert hit 30 or 31. Point is it was below freezing. Tonight may dip to 20 to 24 and with clouds tomorrow may be a struggle to 32. So definitely been 3 to 7 degrees colder than modeled
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Post by Tilawn on Feb 18, 2019 16:51:36 GMT -6
I didn’t know Dave still did forecasts. It’s not bad probably a little conservative. I still like my 1-3” , I hope it busts on the low side Every day. He started his own little page. |
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Post by mosue56 on Feb 18, 2019 16:58:59 GMT -6
Is it because it will be icy before and after the snow and because of the snow being heavy and wet that we are only getting 1-3 despite the predicted heavy snow coming?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 18, 2019 17:01:50 GMT -6
Having an on line discussion with someone in Council Bluffs about the snow Iowa has gotten this year, as well as farther north in Minnesota. Anyone have any insight on the flooding potential as we move in to spring? I know it somewhat depends on how quickly it warms up. I had this discussion with March Fuchs at NWS LSX. The spring flood outlook is coming up either later this week or early next week. But he said some of the numbers being churned out by the long river forecast models are eye popping. That's not good. Thanks |
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 17:20:35 GMT -6
Afternoon AFD says 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts with 1/10 of ice. Rush hour tomorrow evening may be nasty.
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