twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on May 22, 2019 11:39:15 GMT -6
1.2 inches here in St. Peters at Cave Springs and 70. Of course, that is according to the Davis on the roof......
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Post by brendanwiese550KTRS on May 22, 2019 11:47:06 GMT -6
Today is the 8-year anniversary of the Joplin tornado, and wouldn't you know it, they are right smack dab in the cross hairs again today. HRRR brings a massive cell through Joplin later this evening.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on May 22, 2019 11:58:27 GMT -6
I'd keep an eye on the storms tonight. The environment around here will be supportive of severe weather throughout the night  Woah!!! |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 22, 2019 12:04:16 GMT -6
Well crap, u dont see this upgraded like this too often!!! Wow.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 22, 2019 12:06:20 GMT -6
I'd keep an eye on the storms tonight. The environment around here will be supportive of severe weather throughout the night Was just going to say that today's setup is another volatile situation...strong heating along with weak capping and neutral/positive height trend is creating a pressure cooker airmass across the region. Latest SPC disco mentions an upstream disturbance that should act as a trigger for storm development within the next few hours...along with RER jet dynamics. Visible satellite shows a band of CU bubbling along/N of 44 currently. Models develop ~3000j/kg SBCAPE and shear values are still running high although SRH is lower than yesterday with low-level winds much less backed. Definitely a tornado threat again today with discrete supercells that develop and track across MO along with large hail and increasing wind threat overnight with storm mergers/outflow and a strengthening nocturnal LLJ developing overhead. |
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141 
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on May 22, 2019 12:11:12 GMT -6
Chris, no rush, but please check your PM...
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Post by msnotos on May 22, 2019 12:17:41 GMT -6
I was sooooooo close, but the damn hills and trees blocked my view. My first look at video from skyfox looks ef2 ish... impressive tree damage...and now some homes. Oh no! I was hoping no homes were damaged. Tornado looks huge! Maybe EF4? Or darn close. From the reports I've seen, the damage wasn't high enough to subject that kind of rating. Trees uprooted and roofs torn off looked to be from less than completely stable buildings so I'd say at most an EF2. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 22, 2019 12:38:49 GMT -6
Remember size of the tornado doesn't necessarily reflect intensity. The have been some very large ef1's and 2's.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 22, 2019 12:43:36 GMT -6
There's also been some very small F/EF3+. Given the strength of the velocity couplet and debris lofting I'd say the Augusta tornado was a strong tornado...but the exact strength may be tough to determine if it didn't hit many structures directly.
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Post by Jeffmw on May 22, 2019 12:45:12 GMT -6
What are the chances of our first heat wave coming up soon?
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 22, 2019 12:47:02 GMT -6
There's also been some very small F/EF3+. Given the strength of the velocity couplet and debris lofting I'd say the Augusta tornado was a strong tornado...but the exact strength may be tough to determine if it didn't hit many structures directly. Pecos hank had a great description on a video from a few years ago, stating that a huge tornado goes harmlessly through an open field and the only damage done was the blowing over of your lawn chair, it's an EF0. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 22, 2019 13:02:27 GMT -6
There's also been some very small F/EF3+. Given the strength of the velocity couplet and debris lofting I'd say the Augusta tornado was a strong tornado...but the exact strength may be tough to determine if it didn't hit many structures directly. Pecos hank had a great description on a video from a few years ago, stating that a huge tornado goes harmlessly through an open field and the only damage done was the blowing over of your lawn chair, it's an EF0. Very true. The issue is without X band/mobile doppler data, station radar data is unreliable/inaccurate for determining tornado strength unless the tornado passes within a mile of the site because the radar beam overshoots the ground level winds. So the only reliable way to determine wind speed is by structural damage...which is what the original Fujita scale is based upon. The one exception to that scenario would be ground scouring which is indicative of a violent tornado. Video footage can also offer clues to wind speed...although far from exact. Strong to violent tornadoes tend to have that rapid "whirlwind" effect near the ground...especially with multi-vortex/suction vortices. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 22, 2019 13:06:23 GMT -6
Pecos hank had a great description on a video from a few years ago, stating that a huge tornado goes harmlessly through an open field and the only damage done was the blowing over of your lawn chair, it's an EF0. Very true. The issue is without X band/mobile doppler data, station radar data is unreliable/inaccurate for determining tornado strength unless the tornado passes within a mile of the site because the radar beam overshoots the ground level winds. So the only reliable way to determine wind speed is by structural damage...which is what the original Fujita scale is based upon. The one exception to that scenario would be ground scouring which is indicative of a violent tornado. Video footage can also offer clues to wind speed...although far from exact. Strong to violent tornadoes tend to have that rapid "whirlwind" effect near the ground...especially with multi-vortex/suction vortices. Agree. Having witnessed the aftermath in Vilonia AR in 2014... scouring was very evident in just the earthy smell. The place we had parked the satellite truck was in the middle of foundations left after. In what was left of the yard was a perfect imprint of a bicycle. Forever changed my perception of the power tornadoes. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 22, 2019 13:36:32 GMT -6
It's time to start watching river levels. The Missouri River is forecasted to crest close to major flood stage on Saturday in St. Charles. The Mississippi River is forecasted crest above major flood stage on Monday in St. Louis.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on May 22, 2019 13:40:34 GMT -6
Pecos hank had a great description on a video from a few years ago, stating that a huge tornado goes harmlessly through an open field and the only damage done was the blowing over of your lawn chair, it's an EF0. Very true. The issue is without X band/mobile doppler data, station radar data is unreliable/inaccurate for determining tornado strength unless the tornado passes within a mile of the site because the radar beam overshoots the ground level winds. So the only reliable way to determine wind speed is by structural damage...which is what the original Fujita scale is based upon. The one exception to that scenario would be ground scouring which is indicative of a violent tornado. Video footage can also offer clues to wind speed...although far from exact. Strong to violent tornadoes tend to have that rapid "whirlwind" effect near the ground...especially with multi-vortex/suction vortices. I went and looked at the damage this afternoon and although not a ton of structural...the amount of very large trees snapped in half and thrown hundreds of yards sways was pretty incredible. In one case a large grain silo was thrown 800 yards. My guess is EF3 but would not be surprised if it gets an EF4 rating. And I’d be very surprised if it’s EF2 or smaller. I know a lot of the property owners there and some of the damage they let me look at included roofs blown off barns and large sheds demolished. The size of trees >28” in diameter that were also snapped was amazing!! One of my friends will be on hive tonight at 5 that got the up close pic of the tornado that tore his area up really bad. |
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Post by jmg378s on May 22, 2019 13:45:47 GMT -6
That's a PDS watch on OK now.
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on May 22, 2019 14:05:42 GMT -6
Things poppin south of OKC now.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 22, 2019 14:09:31 GMT -6
Short term models and SPC outlook didn't really have this being a big deal for southern OK so I was surprised to see the PDS watch in that location. What changed?
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on May 22, 2019 14:10:52 GMT -6
Well this was an entirely unexpected rating. Goes to show size doesn’t matter! Augusta tornado rated an EF1
UST IN from the National Weather Service
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
303 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/21/19 TORNADO EVENT UPDATE #1...
.Augusta, MO...
Rating: EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph
Path Length /statute/: 6.0 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 250 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0
Start Date: 05/21/2019
Start Time: 5:58 PM CDT
Start Location: 1W Labadie
Start Lat/Lon: 38.5319/-90.8934
End Date: 05/21/2019
End Time: 6:10 PM CDT
End Location: 2NE Augusta
End Lat/Lon: 38.6030/-90.8319
Survey Summary: A tornado developed about 1 mile west of Labadie
in Franklin County, causing some tree damage and then moved north-
northeast across the Missouri River in St. Charles County.
Extensive tree damage was noted on Sanders Road, Terry Road and
Coates Ln. Minor structural damage was noted on a few homes and a
few roofs were blow off of barns and outbuildings.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 22, 2019 14:13:07 GMT -6
That's a PDS watch on OK now. I’m doing my thesis on PDS watch climatology so if nothing else the last few days have boosted my sample size |
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202
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Post by BDS on May 22, 2019 14:20:30 GMT -6
That's a PDS watch on OK now. I’m doing my thesis on PDS watch climatology so if nothing else the last few days have boosted my sample size Correct me if I’m wrong but if it is a high probability above 80 percent of EF2+ tornadoes it’ll automatically go PDS. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 22, 2019 14:27:28 GMT -6
I’m doing my thesis on PDS watch climatology so if nothing else the last few days have boosted my sample size Correct me if I’m wrong but if it is a high probability above 80 percent of EF2+ tornadoes it’ll automatically go PDS. From what I’ve read, there’s no set criteria to issue a PDS watch. It’s up to forecaster discretion. But when a PDS tornado watch is issued its expected 2 or more strong to violent tornadoes will occur in or near the watch box |
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on May 22, 2019 14:31:03 GMT -6
So how does this look to play out to the W and NW of St Louis? It appears Warren and Lincoln counties are on the edge of the enhanced risk and our highest threat is hail and wind according to SPC. Starting as supercells and then forming multi-cell lines and moving east later?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 22, 2019 14:32:21 GMT -6
Wow that’s another PDS watch for SW Mo
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Post by Snowman99 on May 22, 2019 14:32:55 GMT -6
Interesting that the watch isn't even in the moderate risk area, just in the marginal and slight areas.
edit...this was for the OK watch
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 22, 2019 14:51:12 GMT -6
"Don't get too confused about the PDS term. It's a tornado watch. The PDS designation just means ingredients are there that could produce stronger tornado. Your actions are the same: pay attention and be ready for a tornado just in case."
NWS Norman via Twitter just 2 minutes ago.
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Post by cozpregon on May 22, 2019 14:51:31 GMT -6
So how does this look to play out to the W and NW of St Louis? It appears Warren and Lincoln counties are on the edge of the enhanced risk and our highest threat is hail and wind according to SPC. Starting as supercells and then forming multi-cell lines and moving east later? With the large amount of CAPE well into the night- would think a large hail threat is a concern. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 22, 2019 15:05:48 GMT -6
Well this was an entirely unexpected rating. Goes to show size doesn’t matter! Augusta tornado rated an EF1 UST IN from the National Weather Service Public Information Statement National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 303 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 05/21/19 TORNADO EVENT UPDATE #1... .Augusta, MO... . I'll be curious to see what the map looks like when they get things a little more finalized and put that out |
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Post by cozpregon on May 22, 2019 15:07:19 GMT -6
I'd keep an eye on the storms tonight. The environment around here will be supportive of severe weather throughout the night Was just going to say that today's setup is another volatile situation...strong heating along with weak capping and neutral/positive height trend is creating a pressure cooker airmass across the region. Latest SPC disco mentions an upstream disturbance that should act as a trigger for storm development within the next few hours...along with RER jet dynamics. Visible satellite shows a band of CU bubbling along/N of 44 currently. Models develop ~3000j/kg SBCAPE and shear values are still running high although SRH is lower than yesterday with low-level winds much less backed. Definitely a tornado threat again today with discrete supercells that develop and track across MO along with large hail and increasing wind threat overnight with storm mergers/outflow and a strengthening nocturnal LLJ developing overhead. Can see the RER dynamics helping to kick to storms off
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 22, 2019 15:11:56 GMT -6
Tornado watch to the NW of us..as close as Pike and Montgomery Counties, MO until 11 PM.
Also 87 degrees with a 56 degree dew point and winds gusting to 31 MPH. Definitely more of a severe weather feel today.
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