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Post by unclesam6 on May 20, 2019 2:29:26 GMT -6
Big boy QLCS reflection on the NAM3k this morning. I'd figure to see the ENH expand eastward in following updates.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 20, 2019 4:59:00 GMT -6
Going to be an extremely dangerous situation in the Plains today. For them to call school off, I don't rememeber that ever happening. Maybe it has?? Not sure
For us, not as dangerous, but could be our best setup all season.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 20, 2019 5:06:52 GMT -6
It has happened at least one other time I believe. It makes sense today. I have no problems with that decision given the setup.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 20, 2019 5:11:55 GMT -6
Big boy QLCS reflection on the NAM3k this morning. I'd figure to see the ENH expand eastward in following updates. There are many concerns about tomorrow. Outflow boundaries will really complicate things. But the effective boundary will most likely end up further south than progged. Question is how far. The greatest tornado threat will be near that outflow and its intersection with the QLCS. |
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Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2019 5:21:37 GMT -6
HRRR is insane down there in KS/OK/TX. Something like 16-20 supercells going simultaneously by early evening.
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Post by Tilawn on May 20, 2019 5:32:24 GMT -6
It has happened at least one other time I believe. It makes sense today. I have no problems with that decision given the setup. It makes sense but only if the parents are able to see off work as well. Having children home by themselves possibly during a severe weather event isn’t a good scenario IMO. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 20, 2019 6:42:51 GMT -6
It has happened at least one other time I believe. It makes sense today. I have no problems with that decision given the setup. It makes sense but only if the parents are able to see off work as well. Having children home by themselves possibly during a severe weather event isn’t a good scenario IMO. Agree. Although... the population in OKC and TUL are far more severe weather savvy and much more inclined to have a plan and shelter. But you are correct... if kids are home alone... that is a problem. |
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Post by shrapnel - Arnold, MO on May 20, 2019 6:55:03 GMT -6
It's not near as much of an issue since they caught the Wet Bandits.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 20, 2019 7:19:44 GMT -6
Latest HRRR is forecasting extreme EHI values with CAPE running 5000j/kg+ across the E Panhandle/Red River region...
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 7:37:46 GMT -6
I would not want to be down in TX/OK today. God speed to those folks...
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 20, 2019 7:58:04 GMT -6
Man... the possibility of outflow boundaries complicating tomorrow seems higher than normal.
There existence doesn't mean we will not get severe weather. In fact... the outflows may enhance the tornado potential from I-70 and south because of more substantially backed low level winds. The hires CAMS are have been highlighting this potential well with the ribbon of enhanced 0-1km EHI lifting northeast with the boundary...along with ridiculously high SigTOR values.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 20, 2019 7:58:17 GMT -6
Maybe the current storms in that area will help stabilize it just a bit to prevent it from being an all out outbreak.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 8:10:21 GMT -6
Man... the possibility of outflow boundaries complicating tomorrow seems higher than normal. There existence doesn't mean we will not get severe weather. In fact... the outflows may enhance the tornado potential from I-70 and south because of more substantially backed low level winds. The hires CAMS are have been highlighting this potential well with the ribbon of enhanced 0-1km EHI lifting northeast with the boundary...along with ridiculously high SigTOR values. Given this possibility, do you see a moderate risk being issues for MO/IL somewhere? Maybe an easterly push with the severe potential? Just curious on how you see this playing out. Thank you and I know you are a busy man. I do not envy you in these type of instances. Tough to forecast. |
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Post by yypc on May 20, 2019 8:43:14 GMT -6
Oklahoma/TX were upgraded to high risk this morning
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Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2019 9:18:06 GMT -6
It's the 3kNAM so it's going to be overcooked yes, but it is a bit ridiculous in the zone where winds become really backed and high theta-e air becomes entrenched near the warm front and/or outflow. I mean the 400+ m2/s2 of 1k SRH and 3000+ j/kg SBCAPE is definitely eye-brow raising to say the least. It has an equally ridiculous QLCS UH track to go with it. Certainly the type of environment that can produce tornado producing mesovortices or embedded supercells.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 20, 2019 9:42:16 GMT -6
SPC extended the high risk area to the northeast, making it quite a large area now. Nam has a pretty good remnant squall line moving through here in the overnight hours.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on May 20, 2019 9:44:07 GMT -6
I cant believe that this morning one of the major radio stations in STL is only calling for a brief thundershower late tonight and nothing tomorrow! Down right dangerous under the circumstances.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 9:51:33 GMT -6
Mr. Timmer is expecting the warm front to come further north today, he said he expects the moderate and high risk to expand into southern KS. Next day 1 SPC update is in about an hour or so.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 10:36:50 GMT -6
No expansion into KS but added a 45% to the tornado outlook.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 20, 2019 10:46:22 GMT -6
PDS tor watch should go up soon for western OK
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 20, 2019 11:01:12 GMT -6
ale Discussion 0699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019
Areas affected...southwest into central OK...western north-central
TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 201617Z - 201845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will
likely be needed for portions of central and western OK.
Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest a watch
being issued during the 1pm-2pm period.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a bubbling cumulus
field over western north-central TX into southwest and south-central
OK. Rapid moisture advection is occurring late this morning with
surface dewpoints rising into the lower 70s over southern OK.
Upwards of 4000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected by early to mid afternoon
across western and central OK with intensifying wind profiles.
Short-term model guidance appears to have a reasonable depiction of
free warm sector initiation occurring over southwest and
south-central OK during the 2-3pm period. The observational trend
in visible satellite imagery showing more pronounced bands of low
cloud cover ---perhaps indicative of horizontal convective rolls
and/or low-level confluence zones is supportive evidence for this
model-based depiction. The expectation is for storms to develop on
the northern half of these cloud features with explosive supercell
development likely thereafter. Forecast soundings show a very rare
combination of intense low-level SRH, very moist boundary, and
extreme buoyancy. As such, the risk for strong to violent tornadoes
appears to be increasing later this afternoon into the early
evening.
..Smith.. 05/20/2019
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 20, 2019 11:04:15 GMT -6
Mesoscale Discussion 0698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019
Areas affected...portions of northwest TX...TX Panhandle...and
western OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 201541Z - 201815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed by 1pm CDT. Storm
initiation is expected as early as 1-2pm along the dryline.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows the initial stages of a
bubbling cumulus field across the Texas South Plains from near
Midland northward to Lubbock. Late morning surface observations
show south-southeasterlies with rapid moisture advection occurring
with dewpoints rising to near 70 degrees F near the Low Rolling
Plains. Despite the scattered low cloud cover, additional heating
and moistening will contribute to extreme buoyancy (4000-5000 J/kg
MLCAPE) developing by early-mid afternoon east of a sharping dryline
in parts of northwest and west TX. The aforementioned theta-e
increase and weak large-scale forcing will likely lead to storms
explosively developing during the 1pm-3pm period.
Strong and veering low-level winds beneath very strong deep-layer
wind fields will likely result in sickle-shaped hodographs over the
TX Panhandle and western OK this afternoon. 0-1km SRH around 250
m2/s2 coupled with the extreme buoyancy will favor long-track and
potentially violent tornadoes with the strongest storms. Giant hail
(3-4+ inches in diameter) will be possible.
Farther south, tornadoes and very large hail are possible with any
supercells that develop near the Permian Basin.
..Smith/Hart.. 05/20/2019
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 20, 2019 11:15:06 GMT -6
HRRR continues to look wicked in the high risk area with an outbreak of tornadic supercells this afternoon. I hope chasers out there stay safe. Very dangerous setup to chase
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 20, 2019 11:17:18 GMT -6
45% hatched tornado risk now added in the High risk. Only the second time i can remember seeing 45% hatched for tornado
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Post by yypc on May 20, 2019 11:23:32 GMT -6
This would be an epic day to be chasing. Hope they keep their distance and stay safe down there.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 11:36:37 GMT -6
No real changes to the placement of the day 2 convective outlook. Safe bet given some uncertainty. Gives room to increase or decrease as required.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 11:39:17 GMT -6
PDS tornado watch hoisted.
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Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2019 11:46:29 GMT -6
No real changes to the placement of the day 2 convective outlook. Safe bet given some uncertainty. Gives room to increase or decrease as required.
One subtle change is the increase in tornado probabilities from 5 to 10% at the end of the outlook discussion.
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455 
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Post by luvhockey on May 20, 2019 11:48:34 GMT -6
Any thoughts on timing of storms tomorrow? I have 6 tickets for Cardinal game and seriously thinking of not going and selling them.
Chance of storms, traffic will be hell and of course most importantly watching the Blues game.
Son #1 says he may still want to go with 5 friends but I'm not sure I want him going.
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Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2019 11:48:35 GMT -6
Maybe now is the time, before mother nature goes ape s#!t on TX/OK, to point out that the FV3 is kinda wet in our area over the next couple days...next several days actually...
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