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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 18, 2019 8:31:07 GMT -6
Hoping to get in a day canoe trip on the Current River Saturday. Looks right now like the storms may hold off until the nighttime when a line comes in from the north. Any thoughts?
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 18, 2019 9:14:33 GMT -6
That Wednesday setup has my interest How much snow you think? Heaviest snow may just be to our south & east.. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 18, 2019 10:06:46 GMT -6
Heaviest snow may just be to our south & east.. Dang southerners always stealing our snow |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 18, 2019 12:27:43 GMT -6
That Wednesday setup has my interest Noticed that little bowling ball too...could be some spin ups with all that ambient vorticity and shear. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 18, 2019 19:15:46 GMT -6
Well defined hook echo north of Amarillo. Tornado warning for it. Fortunately no large population areas in that area. Still there are a good number of farms, ranches, and a few small towns.
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Post by eurekakim on Jun 18, 2019 23:39:58 GMT -6
What are the odds that the ballgame Weds night is a rainout? We were lucky to be gifted some amazing seats and I’m thinking Murphy’s law is going to smack us right in the face.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 19, 2019 0:37:32 GMT -6
What are the odds that the ballgame Weds night is a rainout? We were lucky to be gifted some amazing seats and I’m thinking Murphy’s law is going to smack us right in the face. Delay...maybe. Cancelled...pretty low. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 19, 2019 2:06:28 GMT -6
Meremac went up about a foot down this way yesterday. It has till Friday night to go down or we will have to cancel or float trip. Hate to do it but not something to mess with when the water is up.
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Post by eurekakim on Jun 19, 2019 5:31:34 GMT -6
Thanks Chris! Can you just scoot all this liquid out of the area by 5pm or so? 😀 What are the odds that the ballgame Weds night is a rainout? We were lucky to be gifted some amazing seats and I’m thinking Murphy’s law is going to smack us right in the face. Delay...maybe. Cancelled...pretty low. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 19, 2019 6:33:53 GMT -6
Timing and cloud cover should limit the severe potential today. Maybe a strong batch early afternoon, then I think anything else will have a tough time getting too organized in its wake. Just my two cents.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 19, 2019 7:06:27 GMT -6
The slight risk has been expanded further northwest to cover much of the area now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 19, 2019 7:46:20 GMT -6
Have some sun here
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 19, 2019 8:03:55 GMT -6
Friday looks like a big CAPE day with the potential for an MCS. Something to keep an eye on
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 19, 2019 8:15:53 GMT -6
Friday looks like a big CAPE day with the potential for an MCS. Something to keep an eye on Yeah. There will be a real battle with warm mid-level temps/capping inversion spreading in from the southwest. Also, not sure about the intensity of vort/shortwave being modeled in the heart of the ridge at this point. If the models are correct...and it is that strong...then odds of a major MCS go way up. If they are too strong with the shortwave, it will be tough to break the cap. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 19, 2019 9:28:57 GMT -6
the disco yesterday seemed to hint at a transition into a true drier/hotter summer pattern by a week or so from now. Thoughts? Or just another transient stage?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 19, 2019 9:43:55 GMT -6
the disco yesterday seemed to hint at a transition into a true drier/hotter summer pattern by a week or so from now. Thoughts? Or just another transient stage? There are hints of that. It has to happen eventually...just hope it doesn't go full drought. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 19, 2019 9:52:53 GMT -6
the disco yesterday seemed to hint at a transition into a true drier/hotter summer pattern by a week or so from now. Thoughts? Or just another transient stage? There are hints of that. It has to happen eventually...just hope it doesn't go full drought. this might be the one year I don't mind that for a month or 2 |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 19, 2019 10:06:45 GMT -6
Friday looks fun with a solid hint of a derecho or at least an intense MCC moving through around lunchtime. Plenty of moisture and building heat to play with. If it's 3 hours slower than progged it could get nasty real quick. As for the extended, I wouldn't bank on it yet. We've seen heatwaves be blasted this season as soon as they get in the 3-5 day period, and even if it does come into fruition it's likely not to last too long before switching back to a trough east, ridge west pattern again leaving us in the unsettled northwesterly flow once again. I do expect more swings heading into July with definitely more warmer times ahead and drier, but nothing sings drought or a complete shut-off to the rain by any stretch.
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 19, 2019 10:41:41 GMT -6
MO-141 north of MO-364 in Maryland Heights is closed due to flooding. Is this overflow from Creve Coeur Lake?
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Post by msnotos on Jun 19, 2019 11:14:12 GMT -6
MO-141 north of MO-364 in Maryland Heights is closed due to flooding. Is this overflow from Creve Coeur Lake? The photos from most news reports show the Maryland Heights Golf Port which is overflow from Creve Coeur Lake. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 19, 2019 11:18:39 GMT -6
I think the little batch over the southern part of the area is going to be about all we see today outside of a few scattered thundershowers later.
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 19, 2019 11:42:44 GMT -6
Couple days ago I thought I’d be having a day off today......so far just a hit and miss shower in the areas I’m working in.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 19, 2019 12:39:54 GMT -6
MO-141 north of MO-364 in Maryland Heights is closed due to flooding. Is this overflow from Creve Coeur Lake? The photos from most news reports show the Maryland Heights Golf Port which is overflow from Creve Coeur Lake. Mostly yes. The 1.5" of rain we got 2 days ago fell all along creve coeur creek. Which dumps in to creep core Lake...which has nowhere to go thx to Missouri River. There is only a tiny spillway that empties CC lake into MO River... so the basin has been filling up steadily all spring. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 19, 2019 13:34:06 GMT -6
the disco yesterday seemed to hint at a transition into a true drier/hotter summer pattern by a week or so from now. Thoughts? Or just another transient stage? There are hints of that. It has to happen eventually...just hope it doesn't go full drought. I'd put the odds of anything beyond a mini-drought or D1 conditions this summer at <1%...the amount of soil moisture is going to make it tough to dry out. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 19, 2019 13:48:34 GMT -6
Sunny here. Let’s see if anything will fire up.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 19, 2019 13:57:19 GMT -6
Sun is in and out in Belleville... at an appointment.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jun 19, 2019 14:05:00 GMT -6
MO-141 north of MO-364 in Maryland Heights is closed due to flooding. Is this overflow from Creve Coeur Lake? Yes it is! Creve Couer Lake is flooded big time!! Chris said earlier above that Creve Couer Creek is playing a role in this which is a great point. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 19, 2019 14:15:36 GMT -6
Looks like we stay high and dry today. Risk as been shifted well south and east last SPC update. Might get a stray sprinkle, otherwise keep the shades handy.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 19, 2019 14:50:34 GMT -6
I guess I can mow!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 19, 2019 15:06:30 GMT -6
Storms really struggling to get going out west in the dryslot...mid-level lapse rates are meager at 5-6*C/km.
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