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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 11:48:41 GMT -6
No real changes to the placement of the day 2 convective outlook. Safe bet given some uncertainty. Gives room to increase or decrease as required.
One subtle change is the increase in tornado probabilities from 5 to 10% at the end of the outlook discussion.
Indeed, I missed that. |
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Post by jmg378s on May 20, 2019 11:49:41 GMT -6
PDS tornado watch hoisted.
I guess that 5% chance of no watch issuance from the MD didn't pan out...better luck next time :;
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 20, 2019 12:00:20 GMT -6
HRRR continues to look wicked in the high risk area with an outbreak of tornadic supercells this afternoon. I hope chasers out there stay safe. Very dangerous setup to chase Swift storm motions and crowded storms is going to make it hazardous to say the least...along with explosive buoyancy leading to rapid genesis and growth. |
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Post by mosue56 on May 20, 2019 12:04:52 GMT -6
Kansas radar looks nasty!
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Post by bdgwx on May 20, 2019 12:42:20 GMT -6
The PDS watch for southwest OK has been issued. All probabilities are maxed out at > 95%.
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Post by yypc on May 20, 2019 12:46:22 GMT -6
Kansas radar looks nasty! The TX panhandle is where the tornadic supercells are expected to pop up in the next hour or 2. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on May 20, 2019 12:51:49 GMT -6
Maybe now is the time, before mother nature goes ape s#!t on TX/OK, to point out that the FV3 is kinda wet in our area over the next couple days...next several days actually... Yay!!!!!! More rain... something different for a change! |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 13:20:24 GMT -6
A lot of chasers out there today. I hope they're careful!
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Post by John G -west belleville on May 20, 2019 13:20:26 GMT -6
HRRR continues to look wicked in the high risk area with an outbreak of tornadic supercells this afternoon. I hope chasers out there stay safe. Very dangerous setup to chase Swift storm motions and crowded storms is going to make it hazardous to say the least...along with explosive buoyancy leading to rapid genesis and growth. I know i wouldn't be down there. I'll bet some chaser gets hurt. Probably a big chaser convergence problem today |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 13:21:12 GMT -6
I think we're on the same page Phish...
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Post by yypc on May 20, 2019 13:24:41 GMT -6
First tor warning of the day. Roaring Springs, TX bout to be under the gun
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 20, 2019 13:27:55 GMT -6
It's amazing to watch the storms pop like pop corn! I am in complete awe of these types of storm set ups! It's as if almost on que...
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 20, 2019 14:03:22 GMT -6
Spc/noaa sites are having major overload! Chasers/media are having issues with 8-10 lag time. Not good!!!!
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 20, 2019 14:04:47 GMT -6
Are there any free live storm chaser streaming sites/maps anymore? Been a while since I've had the need to look.
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on May 20, 2019 14:09:10 GMT -6
Kholby Martin has/had a cool live shot going on a tornado in Paducah Tx
Edit, now Bob Pack |
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on May 20, 2019 14:09:34 GMT -6
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sullivanjohn
Wishcaster
Sullivan, MO
Posts: 141 
Snowfall Events: Code Monkey
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Post by sullivanjohn on May 20, 2019 14:22:49 GMT -6
Looks like Bob Pack is the guy to be watching at the moment...he's on a cell and in a good position with a good live feed...
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on May 20, 2019 14:23:52 GMT -6
KFOR has a tornado on the chopper feed
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on May 20, 2019 14:30:58 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on May 20, 2019 14:36:15 GMT -6
KFOR streaming has a pretty big one at times they're following
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
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Post by modracer on May 20, 2019 14:51:29 GMT -6
Witnessed my first multi wedge, about mile wide, seen multi ropes before. Those chopper feeds are amazing.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 20, 2019 16:16:59 GMT -6
The cell approaching Magnum, Ok is looking really mean
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 20, 2019 17:08:41 GMT -6
I continue to think the main concern late tonight will be from heavy rain and some non-severe gusty winds.
Tomorrow remains a toss up...but certain has serious potential...especially in the vicinity of the retreating outflow boundary where it intersects with the new squall line. I still suspect models are too fast bringing that outflow north..but time will tell.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 20, 2019 17:50:38 GMT -6
Seems the high risk isn't quite living up to the hype...yet.
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Post by MakeitRain on May 20, 2019 18:13:17 GMT -6
Seems the high risk isn't quite living up to the hype...yet. Never really had a chance. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on May 20, 2019 18:39:52 GMT -6
someone please tell me that it won't rain in Hazelwood until 10pm. I went by the late night forecast and did some quick deck retaining at 5pm, it dries to rain resistant in 4 to 5 hours. That radar is worrying me....
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Post by Snowman99 on May 20, 2019 19:00:56 GMT -6
Seems the high risk isn't quite living up to the hype...yet. Never really had a chance. Lol. The parameters were off the charts. Spc people were genuinely worried about the setup. High risk was way to go for sure. Some things just dont pan out. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 20, 2019 19:10:39 GMT -6
Never really had a chance. Lol. The parameters were off the charts. Spc people were genuinely worried about the setup. High risk was way to go for sure. Some things just dont pan out. Oh I agree...it was certainly warranted. Just goes to show how hard it is to predict. Sometimes moderate risks over perform. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 20, 2019 19:24:38 GMT -6
Looks like central missouri may need an ark built by morning.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 20, 2019 19:39:50 GMT -6
NWS's 30 percent chance of scattered storms tonight seems a bit tame. Obviously it's not going to be a lot of severe weather or anything but could be pretty gusty with the remnant line.
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