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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 20, 2019 13:59:21 GMT -6
18z HRRR brings a strong squall line down I-70 late tomorrow morning Yeah... that 18z HRRR looks pretty close to what Im thinking. I think it could be a hair too far south over western MO... but its close to my conceptual thoughts. |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 20, 2019 14:01:33 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 20, 2019 15:40:49 GMT -6
18z HRRR brings a strong squall line down I-70 late tomorrow morning Yeah the EURO has a pretty stout shortwave topping the ridge tomorrow mid-day...that will have huge implications later in the day into Saturday AM pending development with that. 700mb Temps get awfully toasty for sure with 12*C forecast across E/central MO. Thinking the best odds for an MCS/derecho will be across IL...but I could see it pull further SW closer to the extreme instability. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 20, 2019 16:57:39 GMT -6
Wow... what a tough forecast for tomorrow. I almost feel like throwing out all the CAMs because they seem to overblow convection in response to CAPE...especially when you look at the toasty 700mb temps over KS, most of MO and point southwest...all under the building upper ridge. If, for a moment, you assume the CAMS are being too "CAMMIE" that leaves you more with global/lower res models...which have far more coherent CAPE and EML plumes surging more northeast with time. The first MCS tonight will hold the key to pretty much the entire weekend. A track closer to MS river...or more NE will lead (evetntually) to a hotter and more rain free setup for Saturday. Further west will take a huge chunk out of the heat and lead to effective boundary much further to the south. Making for potentially super bad news... extreme rainfall...and severe weather along the I-70 corridor. Im confused. Is there another chance at a MCS developing tonight? Or u talking about Friday into Sat? |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 20, 2019 20:33:57 GMT -6
Models are all over the place... good luck figuring the next couple days.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 20, 2019 20:39:34 GMT -6
Models are all over the place... good luck figuring the next couple days. Yea the nam has like four rounds of it through early sat. Tough one. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 20, 2019 20:56:53 GMT -6
Wow at the 0z NAM! That is some mean looking MCS! As always Nam is always overdone. But it is within its reliability window. Just sayin.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 20, 2019 21:23:03 GMT -6
Latest HRRR says it never makes it out of northern MO for tomorrow morning. What a mess.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 20, 2019 21:47:10 GMT -6
High and dry for tomorrow according to almost all guidance. Probably going to get mid 90s if things are close enough for storms to pull up warm air from the south. Heat Advisory may be necessary. Glad I got the lawn done tonight, this weekend looks like a Sauna.
Edit: I say that, but the NMM, WRF, and ARW clobber us as well as the RAP. Metro northeast still very much in the threat for now. Logically thinking even if the first round of storms is north it should draw a outflow boundary for secondary storm clusters to follow farther south. Gonna be interesting one way or another.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 20, 2019 21:50:18 GMT -6
You're kidding right
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 20, 2019 21:52:11 GMT -6
See my edited post. This was before I looked at those other models I mentioned in the edited post. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 20, 2019 21:55:17 GMT -6
Got it
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 20, 2019 23:39:06 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 21, 2019 1:39:53 GMT -6
The line behind the one Chris pictures, the one moving north, also looks pretty wicked. Is that one going to wash out? Make a hard right and follow the first one, or just what?
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 21, 2019 4:21:55 GMT -6
so. Nice bow line in NW MO moving east..slightly south maybe.
Another line back into south central NE and N central KS definitely has a se component to it.
Question is.
What the hell is going to happen?
Lol.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 4:30:13 GMT -6
Lots of rain heading back into MO River Basin.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 21, 2019 5:12:58 GMT -6
Most short term models say this is a no go. However, it's hard to trust them when they are initializing so far off from what's actually occurring right now.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 5:13:35 GMT -6
Storms are further south than modeled by several counties.
Latest HRRR trying to catch up to that trend but continues trend of keeping storms on more west to east motion...despite nice CAPE gradient arguing for a bend to the southeast. Tough forecasting continues.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 5:14:50 GMT -6
Im showing the 00z RPM for now. Although it lacks the "two lines" it is the most southerly depiction and gives a reasonable look at what I think may happen. I think the hires/CAMs are too far north.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 21, 2019 5:27:13 GMT -6
That's a crazy looking rear inflow jet... |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 5:31:10 GMT -6
might just get a few spot storms over the metro over the next 90 minutes. A band of agitated cu is bubbling up between STL and Sparta.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 21, 2019 5:33:58 GMT -6
I wonder what the CAMs are getting for lunch today.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 5:53:14 GMT -6
ARW is kinda close... but nothing really shows the two lines. The hard part is trying to pin down the CAPE gradient as a possible track because the models chew it up with the spurious extra convection.
In general... I like along/north of I-70 in MO and near/north of I-64 in Illinois. It has taken me a while to hone in on that verbage... but that's where I'm settling.
The 00z RPM hires actually is doing an ok job...so that's what I'm showing on the air for now.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jun 21, 2019 5:58:17 GMT -6
That's a crazy looking rear inflow jet... Looks like a spitting cobra. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 6:14:09 GMT -6
As a matter of fact it does...lol
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Post by scmhack on Jun 21, 2019 6:18:33 GMT -6
Looks like the storm is gonna race people on I 70 from KC to STL
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 6:57:48 GMT -6
Here comes the Enhanced Risk.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jun 21, 2019 7:06:14 GMT -6
Well surprisingly enough the fruit and veggie farmers I deal with across the state are all very pleased with their crops thus far. lots of good peaches 🍑 coming in and the Missouri tomatoes 🍅 we been getting are incredible already soon enough we will be getting our local melons 🍉 and I'll know how the pumpkins 🎃 are looking in 6 weeks or so (they are just planting those) all in all not as ban as I thought it would be with all the rain and flooding good news for me and my customers! And as far as the hot weather coming goes, bring it on!!! my store in the only inside farmers market around so it's 68* & sunny every day at my store! Facebook.com/thefruitstand Went fishing 🎣 Tuesday in Wellsville Missouri and the amount of flys we encountered was nothing short of plague like thousands and thousands would land on anything and everything (my 1yo daughter spilled some Cheerios and there was a dozen or more flys on each Cheerio in seconds...) this possibly due to the wet year? Or maybe a pig/chicken farm near by? Is it too late to sow watermelon seeds? A friend gifted me a couple Ali Baba melons last year and they are absolutely amazing. I kept the seeds but forgot about them until now! there is still time you will harvest September sometime Some of my farmers are still planting to keep up with last season Supply and demand |
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Jun 21, 2019 7:08:29 GMT -6
Well surprisingly enough the fruit and veggie farmers I deal with across the state are all very pleased with their crops thus far. lots of good peaches 🍑 coming in and the Missouri tomatoes 🍅 we been getting are incredible already soon enough we will be getting our local melons 🍉 and I'll know how the pumpkins 🎃 are looking in 6 weeks or so (they are just planting those) all in all not as ban as I thought it would be with all the rain and flooding good news for me and my customers! And as far as the hot weather coming goes, bring it on!!! my store in the only inside farmers market around so it's 68* & sunny every day at my store! Facebook.com/thefruitstand Went fishing 🎣 Tuesday in Wellsville Missouri and the amount of flys we encountered was nothing short of plague like thousands and thousands would land on anything and everything (my 1yo daughter spilled some Cheerios and there was a dozen or more flys on each Cheerio in seconds...) this possibly due to the wet year? Or maybe a pig/chicken farm near by? Any word on what the local corn-on-the-cob crop is going to be? If any, given the soggy fields. Have they even been able to plant? row crop Farmers are having a much harder time with the flooding and heavy rains there will be a big loss this year but the sweet corn will be in this week already had a shot of Arkansas sweet corn it was great! |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 21, 2019 7:15:56 GMT -6
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