Chris's Corner - Mid May Update

And out of nowhere, a marginal risk:

www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Agitated CU field in central Mo. Looks like that will develop into something within the next few hours

Corfidi vectors and thickness contours strongly suggest the complex across IA will turn down the river valley towards the area this afternoon...models develop 3500j/kg+ CAPE and 25kts bulk shear which suggests at least an isolated severe threat today for sure...favoring wind damage but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

SPC has brought the slight risk down to far northern part of metro.

if this was last year, you'd need to add another month to that number

Looks pretty mean entering northern MO right now. HRRR actually has it coming through the area now. Also things are developing over the eastern Ozarks so it could turn into a fairly busy evening.

In short... No. Assuming temps where also 98.6 (human body temp) which is the lowest it could be as temps can't drop below the dewpoint level without the dewpoint also lowering. Sweat depends on air being lower then the body temp to cool effectively. The lower the temp and hence lower dewpoint the stronger the cooling effect. As a side note you'd probably die within a short amount of time as the heat index would be 185*F only 27*F from the boiling point of water. Need less to say it wouldn't be pleasant for your lungs and given the temps would likely be higher in the above scenario means it could actually be much worse. On Earth only areas around the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf ever get this kind of juice and even then it's never quite that high but have seen some upper 80s to low 90s dewpoints modeled there from time to time.

If you were coming from inside to outside, initially water would condense onto your body from the air as your skin temperature is cooler than the dew point (similar to how a glass of ice water condenses water on the outer part of the glass until all the ice melts and the glass warms up). However, as you stay out there longer, your body would probably warm above the dew point, which would quit the condensation process, and would make evaporation more likely. With your body temperature being so close to the dew point, evaporation would be quite slow, so there would not be much cooling of your body. Regardless, you would be sweating a ton without much if any cooling to show for it.

Edit: Looks like I was beaten to the response!

Models are starting to spin up a nice derecho which could reach all the way to Georgia according to some. Just can't get a heat dome without the chance of at least one ridge running MCS/Derecho it seems.

Fun fact... A Borg Cube/Ship from star Trek with it's 39.1*C temp or 102.7 along with 93% humidity would yield a 'Heat Index' close to 200*F or 197 to be exact. Wonder how the people would survive a trip to such a ship without being a pool of sweat if not collapsed from heat stroke. Stage Magic I guess. Borg they can survive it just fine due to cybernetic augmentation.

Definitely one of those weeks I'm thankful that I am a checker and not a bagger having to get carts from the lot.

The bright side the CPC has below normal temperatures in mind for us after this heatwave. Can anyone here interpret how low would be below normal this time of year?

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

Thinking low to upper 80s with 83 to 87 most likely. Night lows could dip into the 50s away from the city though and it'll be drier for a few days anyway. Increasing signal for the Azures High to back in to the eastern half of the US towards the end of next week with more seasonable temps back to around 88-93 and lows in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low mid 70s. Looks like nearly daily chance of storms however due to wide open Gulf and any subtropical waves/disturbances rolling though.

I have zero pops for rain. SPC thinks this will peeter out before it gets here?