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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 17, 2019 14:21:34 GMT -6
18Z 3KM NAM leaves much to be desired and seems to fizzle it out too quickly also appears less organized than it is in actuality.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 17, 2019 14:28:25 GMT -6
Seems to be following the 19Z HRRR like a book in both appearance and track at least so far. Small cells popping up around Columbia to Moberly as well which should help pull this thing more southward with time.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jul 17, 2019 14:29:51 GMT -6
I just got on the Metrolink heading towards the Zoo we have a huge set up tonight at the zoo for weinhardt party rentals like 4 hours 20 people 7 trucks oh my God I'm probably going to have a heat stroke and pass away
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jul 17, 2019 14:37:46 GMT -6
The track is legit. The only relevant question is. Will this thing keep it's ! POOPY ! together? Will this thing fall into hard times and collapse dry out die out what have you?  will they saying find another level and ascend and turn into a massive Dericho with a Supaflex now echo ready to steamroll the greater metropolitan area??? Rewriting the record books? Redefining what we define as precident? Set new levels of what we believe is physically possible?? Is this line of ThundocloudabillowNboltageELstrikEamericano going to lay down 250mph sustained winds down the muddy much maligned Mississippi??? Goodbye St. Peters and Chesterfield. Hello Frivolopolus!! |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jul 17, 2019 14:48:42 GMT -6
Ozark storms forming a small cluster and turning towards us. Northern line is starting to notable dive south. I can go to work confidence that things seem on track. Let's see how this all rolls. Off until sometime after 11PM.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 17, 2019 14:52:15 GMT -6
KFAM
Mostly Cloudy
92°F
33°C
Humidity 66%
Wind Speed S 7 mph
Barometer 29.98 in (1015.0 mb)
Dewpoint 79°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 109°F (43°C)
Last update 17 Jul 2:56 pm CDT
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jul 17, 2019 15:06:37 GMT -6
DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms associated with a bowing
QLCS is continuing to advance southeast along a tight instability
gradient. Several reports of wind damage and estimated wind speeds
as high as 70 mph have been noted over the last hour or so across
far southeast IA. Downstream of the bow echo, a hot and very moist
boundary layer is in place and low level lapse rates have increased.
Additional CU development has been noted in vis satellite loop just
ahead of the line with some isolated thunderstorms now evident.
Effective shear around 25-35 kt as far south as roughly the I-70
corridor will help maintain organization and stronger low level
lapse rates may help to increase damaging wind potential. The bow is
expected to continue tracking southeast along the instability
gradient at around 30-40 mph. This should bring the toward the St.
Louis Metro vicinity in the next couple of hours, along with a
threat for damaging winds in current intensity is maintained.
Depending on trends, a new watch may be needed downstream of WW 517
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 17, 2019 15:21:18 GMT -6
 Getting pretty good rotation going |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 17, 2019 15:24:15 GMT -6
Since it looks to be strengthening some will the cell west of Warrenton moving straight east reduce some of the instability in the metro area?
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 17, 2019 15:39:05 GMT -6
This spot has been pretty consistent with rotation  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jul 17, 2019 15:39:59 GMT -6
Since it looks to be strengthening some will the cell west of Warrenton moving straight east reduce some of the instability in the metro area? That storm complex has plenty of inflow from the W/SW...so a weakening trend is only going to occur with loss of heating/stabilization. Batten down the hatches...the Frivometer is spinning! |
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jul 17, 2019 15:49:18 GMT -6
Another TVS just SE of Louisiana on the river. Popped up couple of times now. (edit) Don't see any rotation.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 17, 2019 15:50:33 GMT -6
How I have managed to not got get a drop still is beyond me  |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 17, 2019 15:54:14 GMT -6
The track is legit. The only relevant question is. Will this thing keep it's ! POOPY ! together? Will this thing fall into hard times and collapse dry out die out what have you? will they saying find another level and ascend and turn into a massive Dericho with a Supaflex now echo ready to steamroll the greater metropolitan area??? Rewriting the record books? Redefining what we define as precident? Set new levels of what we believe is physically possible?? Is this line of ThundocloudabillowNboltageELstrikEamericano going to lay down 250mph sustained winds down the muddy much maligned Mississippi??? Goodbye St. Peters and Chesterfield. Hello Frivolopolus!! So. Funny. I love it. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jul 17, 2019 15:54:45 GMT -6
Demerson, so great that you have Gma’s on the map.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jul 17, 2019 16:00:49 GMT -6
Since it looks to be strengthening some will the cell west of Warrenton moving straight east reduce some of the instability in the metro area? That storm complex has plenty of inflow from the W/SW...so a weakening trend is only going to occur with loss of heating/stabilization. Batten down the hatches...the Frivometer is spinning! Looks like the area in between the two is filling in, too. Going to be bumpy the next couple of hours. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jul 17, 2019 16:04:41 GMT -6
Demerson, so great that you have Gma’s on the map. 😂 |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jul 17, 2019 16:10:36 GMT -6
KFAM Mostly Cloudy 92°F 33°C Humidity 66% Wind Speed S 7 mph Barometer 29.98 in (1015.0 mb) Dewpoint 79°F (26°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 109°F (43°C)Last update 17 Jul 2:56 pm CDT 78°F 26°C Humidity 79% Wind Speed W 15 G 36 mph Barometer 29.99 in (1015.6 mb) Dewpoint 71°F (22°C) Visibility 3.00 mi Heat Index 80°F (27°C) Last update 17 Jul 4:56 pm CDT Nice change |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jul 17, 2019 16:24:06 GMT -6
Gust front on BRTN's front door. Must be a pretty shelf
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 17, 2019 16:26:50 GMT -6
Gust front moved thru, nice shelf cloud in Troy, Mo. Wind has really been blowing too! Wow
No rain yet.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jul 17, 2019 16:27:14 GMT -6
Dropped temps quite a bit! Feels great!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jul 17, 2019 16:31:50 GMT -6
Wicked clouds and lightning here near Ste. Gen. Trying to beat the strong storms home.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 17, 2019 16:31:55 GMT -6
Holy cow. Getting dark and windy.
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Post by Tilawn on Jul 17, 2019 16:36:59 GMT -6
 Don’t think I’ve ever seen that many outflow boundaries at one time |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jul 17, 2019 16:37:50 GMT -6
Wow that was fun. Had a good gust of wind probably 30 mph cooled things down nicely.
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 17, 2019 16:38:12 GMT -6
It looks like some outflow boundaries are going to collide in the metro area.
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jul 17, 2019 16:41:11 GMT -6
Temperature dropped 11 degrees within a matter of 15 minutes when the gust front came through. Top wind speed was 35mph
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Post by bdgwx on Jul 17, 2019 16:44:54 GMT -6
I bet I had 50-60 mph gusts just now near Hwy. 94/364 and Harvester Rd.
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Jul 17, 2019 16:49:17 GMT -6
Clayton, looking north  |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jul 17, 2019 16:55:31 GMT -6
The northern part of the storm approaching from the west is crumbling apart.
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