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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 29, 2019 11:00:31 GMT -6
Time to freshen things up. Yesterday, we passed the date of the earliest recorded freezing temperature in St. Louis. Below you can see in the image other historically significant dates for freezing temperatures. Obviously, we have nothing imminent in terms of freezing around here... but after some near record heat early this week...we will chill back to some true fall air late in the week. I have always maintained that... on average...the longer and more extreme the warmth is going into Fall... the more likely it is for a colder winter...and that the transition from one to the other gets shortened. It doesn't always work...but it is a good starting point. Like last year, I will not produce any specific long range forecasts for this winter. The main reason is that I'm not the chief... and that job rests with the chief. I don't want there to be conflicting messages out if there is disagreement. So... with that in mind... here are those important dates for freezing temperatures....and enjoy the upcoming week of major temperature swings!  |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Sept 29, 2019 11:04:22 GMT -6
Only a couple of drops of rain last night from the Davis on roof in North St. Peters. It's a little dry here.
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Post by yypc on Sept 29, 2019 11:27:11 GMT -6
How does this September stack up temperature wise all time in the metro?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 29, 2019 12:19:25 GMT -6
How does this September stack up temperature wise all time in the metro? When I last ran the numbers it was the warmest on record. I see nothing that will change that. |
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 29, 2019 12:43:52 GMT -6
Thanks Chris! It may actually feel like October fall finally this weekend! Yay!
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 29, 2019 12:53:26 GMT -6
Just minding my own business mowing the yard and outa no where it starts pouring. Suns out and there’s one small dark cloud lol. Looked at radar and it’s a tiny little cell. My luck lol
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 29, 2019 12:55:07 GMT -6
Blizzard warning issued for a portion of the Montana mountains
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 29, 2019 16:04:18 GMT -6
Got a lot of rain up here, over an inch since 6 am-ish. Of course our mainly white dog likes to run off her energy outside, and now has a black underbelly.
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 29, 2019 16:46:05 GMT -6
1/4” of moisture this morning and you sure can feel it when walking outside this afternoon. Took the day off to go over range/stove shopping with my wife and ended up getting a fridge/freezer as well.......would have been a LOT CHEAPER to go to work today!!!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Sept 29, 2019 17:05:45 GMT -6
Not including today (because the numbers are not final) September's average temperature is 77.5 As you can see... that is still good enough for the hottest on record. Considering the temperatures we had today and what is expected tomorrow... it sure looks like September 2019 will go in the books as the warmest ever in St. Louis.  If you include the presumed high/low for today as reported on the early update... then the average jumps to 77.7. If you include the forecast high/low for tomorrow (92/73) then the average goes up to 77.8. So unless something totally unexpected occurs... this will be the hottest September on record! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 29, 2019 18:08:14 GMT -6
3 More days, then we can celebrate the arrival of Fall!
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 29, 2019 19:21:25 GMT -6
SGF hit 90 again today and it looks like there is a shot of it happening tomorrow as well.
For STL the mark to beat tomorrow is 93F for a record.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 29, 2019 20:02:52 GMT -6
There's a pretty interesting battle going on between the GFS and ECMWF in regards to Lorenzo's future. GFS has one of the most convoluted and complex set of interactions I've seen on a model run. It shows the extratropical low near Greenland before changing course and making landfall in Iceland. The Euro has it missing the phase and sends it into the Bay of Biscay. The D5 difference between the two is nearly 1700 miles!
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 30, 2019 6:44:16 GMT -6
Two reports from Weathernation about the northern Rockies snowstorm
Browning, MT is reporting 48" of snow from 6Pm Friday to 6 PM Sunday. Average snowfall for an entire winter is 59.5"
Spokane, WA reported 1.9" of snow Saturday and 3.2" on Sunday. Their last September snow was in 1926.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 30, 2019 6:52:29 GMT -6
It may be close today, but we are likely going to surpass tomorrow's record which is currently 91F from 1952. The all time record for October is 94F.
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 30, 2019 7:10:20 GMT -6
Bdgwx, what year was that October 94 temp? So it can get hot in Oct but glad this year it’s over early in the month!
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 30, 2019 7:17:25 GMT -6
94F has happened multiple times, but the last time was October 3rd, 2006.
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 30, 2019 9:27:17 GMT -6
But never 95? 94 has been the highest?
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Sept 30, 2019 10:09:29 GMT -6
Dang i wondered if there was a new blog. Tapatalk just kept showing Christmas in July. Then finally today the new blog shows up.
Anyways, i am so ready for that true Fall feel. But not ready for a short Fall. I want 50s & 60s for a couple of months
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Post by mosue56 on Sept 30, 2019 10:29:09 GMT -6
Amen! Its such a long summer, we need a nice fall before winter sets in!
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 30, 2019 10:50:51 GMT -6
It looks like the noon reading will be 90'ish (based on 5-minute METARs) with a Td of 66'ish. Yesterday the noon reading was 86 with a Td of 70 and we hit a high of 92F.
mosue, correct...94F is the highest for the month of October.
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Post by bdgwx on Sept 30, 2019 15:22:30 GMT -6
From the LSX NWS office...  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 30, 2019 16:46:22 GMT -6
Several quakes being reported near the New Madrid Fault in the past hour or two.
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Post by Tilawn on Sept 30, 2019 16:48:29 GMT -6
Dang i wondered if there was a new blog. Tapatalk just kept showing Christmas in July. Then finally today the new blog shows up. Anyways, i am so ready for that true Fall feel. But not ready for a short Fall. I want 50s & 60s for a couple of months Showed up for me yesterday on the Tapatalk app within a few minutes of the start of it. But you have to refresh the home page for it to show up that quickly |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Sept 30, 2019 17:06:21 GMT -6
Several quakes being reported near the New Madrid Fault in the past hour or two. Four of them all less than 3 and all less than 7 km from Lilbourn, MO and all 7-8 km deep. I believe that would qualify as a swarm. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 30, 2019 19:32:43 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Sept 30, 2019 20:22:05 GMT -6
Kinda makes you worry about a bigger one .....
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Post by yypc on Sept 30, 2019 20:57:15 GMT -6
From the LSX NWS office... Plus we are approaching a solar minimum. Imagine what will happen when that reverses |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 30, 2019 21:02:02 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 30, 2019 21:02:43 GMT -6
Kinda makes you worry about a bigger one ..... From my understanding, numerous small quakes along a fault are a good sign. Means the pressure is being released and not building up. When a fault is unusually quiet is when you should start to worry |
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