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Post by weatherj on Dec 12, 2019 7:37:23 GMT -6
I would be on the southern end of everything, but if it works out like the Euro depicts then 1-3/2-4 is a nice little storm considering we aren't even into meteorological winter yet.
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Post by perryville on Dec 12, 2019 7:55:56 GMT -6
If we do get that more sheared out southern solution, what is the WAA fighting? Sometimes it takes forever for snow to break through and others, it saturates in no time. I'm talking about the 1st part, Sunday afternoon that Chris mentioned. There is no doubt it will sleet in Perryville. We are the sleet capital and no Southern Illinois town can take that from us:).
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Post by perryville on Dec 12, 2019 7:59:52 GMT -6
Paducah NWS is leaning toward the King Euro and Chris. Snow moving in around 2 on Sunday and snow likely Sunday night, especially across their northern parts. (Southern part of St. Louis NWS).
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2019 8:14:50 GMT -6
Then there is SPC who seems to be favoring GFS as they are forecasting 15% severe over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri Monday...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 8:16:42 GMT -6
I think we will see a trend down in the surface temps as we get closer. That boundary often likes to lay itself down with the WAA and then not budge until the whole system has passed.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2019 8:19:56 GMT -6
I think we will see a trend down in the surface temps as we get closer. That boundary often likes to lay itself down with the WAA and then not budge until the whole system has passed. That's why my concern for freezing drizzle is increasing for late Sunday night into Monday morning. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2019 8:40:58 GMT -6
The 12z NAM seems to be trending toward the Euro
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 8:43:55 GMT -6
The 12z NAM seems to be trending toward the Euro Yea, and puts me right on the temp line. I'd be willing to bet the shallow arctic air keeps us below freezing for sleet/zr with that setup. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 12, 2019 8:57:13 GMT -6
This is a thread the needle scenario.
My confidence in seeing accumulating snow is say 40% at this point.
My confidence in seeing 2"+ of snow is less than 25%.
But at least it's something to track
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 9:03:35 GMT -6
Hopefully I get in on some of the action...I'm in desperate need of a distraction. Our dog was diagnosed with lymphoma back in mid September, and his days (or hours) are numbered. We know what is coming very soon, but it is still incredibly difficult to deal with.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Dec 12, 2019 9:05:19 GMT -6
Sorry to see this STG. I had a cat with Lymphoma and it was a hard time for all of us.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 12, 2019 9:16:52 GMT -6
Hopefully I get in on some of the action...I'm in desperate need of a distraction. Our dog was diagnosed with lymphoma back in mid September, and his days (or hours) are numbered. We know what is coming very soon, but it is still incredibly difficult to deal with. Hang in there weatherfan! Just cuddle and hold the pup tight. When we almost lost Daisy back in March it came on suddenly and we went from healthy to making a decision in two days. She is still with us... but we know the time is coming and but I already sense that it we will be more ready this time around because we've just enjoyed her love and warmth. Good luck! |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2019 9:22:57 GMT -6
Hopefully I get in on some of the action...I'm in desperate need of a distraction. Our dog was diagnosed with lymphoma back in mid September, and his days (or hours) are numbered. We know what is coming very soon, but it is still incredibly difficult to deal with. Ugh, hate to hear this man. Had a Westie with lymphoma a few years ago,lasted about two months after diagnosis. Just hold and love on him. You're his world. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 12, 2019 9:40:04 GMT -6
My thoughts are consistent with friv. The waa will be a fast mover then a translation to frdz. Im thinking light accums, mod impact (concern with monday morning rush).
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 10:00:35 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS might finally be caving to the other models. It isn’t nearly as amped up as last nights run
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Post by landscaper on Dec 12, 2019 10:02:33 GMT -6
GFS looks much better, took a big jump to the other models
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 10:02:52 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS might finally be caving to the other models. It isn’t nearly as amped up as last nights run It’s still way north with the snow band. Looks like the gfs and euro are meeting in the middle to me |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 10:06:54 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS might finally be caving to the other models. It isn’t nearly as amped up as last nights run It’s still way north with the snow band. Looks like the gfs and euro are meeting in the middle to me Ya part 2 still gets pulled north, but is much more sheared out this run |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 12, 2019 10:09:41 GMT -6
I think it’s still a little to far north . I think the main band will set up along and north of I 70 . Just my thoughts
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 10:11:32 GMT -6
Gfs still drops the artic hammer briefly.
I’m with Snowman99 on those now though. Don’t buy into them until they are within 48-72 hours
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 12, 2019 10:17:13 GMT -6
Euro is cooking up something nice for the area Looks like you'll get your wish bdg Yes. That looks better. Thank you for your hard work in making that happen. |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 12, 2019 10:24:46 GMT -6
Can’t look at the models very well on my phone.....was curious if there is anything other then plain cold rain showers late Friday night into Saturday morning?
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 12, 2019 10:30:21 GMT -6
UKMET from last night looked pretty good too at least from the limited set of products we have access to anyway.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 10:57:55 GMT -6
GEM is similar to what is has been, though wetter. I guess I need to start getting used to the idea of trying to cash in on the first wave before the second wave comes a bit warmer. Ugh.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 11:07:13 GMT -6
12z GEFS is a KC to Peoria storm.
12z GGEM seems to agree.
Looks like a consensus is beginning to emerge
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2019 11:13:41 GMT -6
Hows metro looking stull a plowable storm
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 11:24:53 GMT -6
Can’t look at the models very well on my phone.....was curious if there is anything other then plain cold rain showers late Friday night into Saturday morning? Low level temps look to warm as it stands now |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 12, 2019 11:26:32 GMT -6
12Z UKMET looks pretty good. It's a 30 hour event beginning Sunday evening and yielding about 0.6-0.7" of QPF. I have no idea what the ptypes are though.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 11:31:22 GMT -6
12Z UKMET looks pretty good. It's a 30 hour event beginning Sunday evening and yielding about 0.6-0.7" of QPF. I have no idea what the ptypes are though. What site are you using? I only get detailed information out to 72 hours, surface maps out to 144. |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 12, 2019 11:52:27 GMT -6
12Z UKMET looks pretty good. It's a 30 hour event beginning Sunday evening and yielding about 0.6-0.7" of QPF. I have no idea what the ptypes are though. What site are you using? I only get detailed information out to 72 hours, surface maps out to 144. weathermodels.com ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ has UKMET out to 168 hours but only in 24 hour increments. |
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