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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 11:54:59 GMT -6
Sadly, I suspect a big northward march from the Euro at 12z. GFS looks like it will win this time.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 12, 2019 11:57:08 GMT -6
It will be something if it still maintains it's further south/more sheared solution.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2019 11:59:09 GMT -6
Is it looking more like ice for st.louis
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 11:59:12 GMT -6
What site are you using? I only get detailed information out to 72 hours, surface maps out to 144. weathermodels.com ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ has UKMET out to 168 hours but only in 24 hour increments. Thanks, don’t know why I didn’t see it on that site before. Looks like a blend of the gfs and GEM to me. I suspect the euro will look pretty good along 70 in about 25 minutes |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 12:01:41 GMT -6
I'll enjoy my sleet followed by rain...
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Post by msnotos on Dec 12, 2019 12:03:50 GMT -6
Hopefully I get in on some of the action...I'm in desperate need of a distraction. Our dog was diagnosed with lymphoma back in mid September, and his days (or hours) are numbered. We know what is coming very soon, but it is still incredibly difficult to deal with. We lost our pup this past fall to old age. It's never easy. Give him all the pets and hugs! |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 12:10:48 GMT -6
Thank you for the kind words everyone. This whole thing came suddenly in September and out of nowhere. Needless to say we were shocked that this medium sized, 6 year old mixed breed had cancer.
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Post by weatherj on Dec 12, 2019 12:16:04 GMT -6
I'm so sorry to hear of this STG. I know you'll treasure the time left.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2019 12:19:17 GMT -6
Euro ho res looks good for 70 but much drier and un organized. Maybe a inch or 2
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 12:20:57 GMT -6
Ya euro is a mess structurally
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 12:25:54 GMT -6
Euros wave two is mainly KC to Quincy, but does bring some snow to the metro
Wave 1 is snow and ice for the metro on south
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 12:30:04 GMT -6
I still think there could be a zone that sees a good amount of ice
That will likely be across the southern counties for wave 1 but lift north for wave 2
Something to keep an eye on
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 12:36:41 GMT -6
It is still hard for me to envision sleet/snow then sleet/freezing rain followed by rain on wave 2. That just doesn't really happen but I guess there's a first time for everything.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 12:46:47 GMT -6
That’s a pretty crappy euro run.
Starting to see a classic STL split between the WAA in round one and the main storm for round 2.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 12, 2019 12:48:15 GMT -6
So sorry Weatherfan. Always a sad thing to deal with.
In regards to the upcoming system. I really hate these phase 1, phase two type storms. Because either the first part will he good then the second part miss us. Or one part will hit someone south and the other hit north leaving the middle dry. Ugh.....
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 12, 2019 12:48:46 GMT -6
That’s a pretty crappy euro run. Starting to see a classic STL split between the WAA in round one and the main storm for round 2. Exactly what I'm talking about. 😉 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 12:50:16 GMT -6
Phase 2 is extremely weak altogether on the Euro.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 12, 2019 13:24:03 GMT -6
Looks to stay pretty active through Christmas with several shortwaves continuing to come through. Hopefully we get one of these to hit.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2019 13:28:41 GMT -6
Im betting things will trend south starting tomorrow morning. Seems to be a tremg too far north adjustment only.to come south bu 100 miles or so
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 12, 2019 13:52:56 GMT -6
Wind has definitely picked up
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 14:38:22 GMT -6
12z euro ensembles are all over the place.
I don’t think it’s handling this storm all that well.
Regardless, the ensemble mean looks better than the operational run. Beefier totals with the main action along and north of 70.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 12, 2019 14:44:31 GMT -6
It's hard to have a lot of faith in modeling at this point considering there's a substantial divergence with the vort max track of the "clipper" that's inside of 48hrs. But it does seem like models are converging on a track of the vort max with the main system from roughly KC to DVN which suggests a hit of WAA snow transitioning to sleet and possibly plain rain or more likely, FRDZ. That also means that the main deformation will either set up to the north or sweep through as a band of light/moderate snow. Right now this is looking like a possible low amount/high impact system so it still bears close watching.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 14:56:07 GMT -6
It's hard to have a lot of faith in modeling at this point considering there's a substantial divergence with the vort max track of the "clipper" that's inside of 48hrs. But it does seem like models are converging on a track of the vort max with the main system from roughly KC to DVN which suggests a hit of WAA snow transitioning to sleet and possibly plain rain or more likely, FRDZ. That also means that the main deformation will either set up to the north or sweep through as a band of light/moderate snow. Right now this is looking like a possible low amount/high impact system so it still bears close watching. The shot of cold air coming down Saturday night and Sunday right ahead of the system just screams ice storm someplace. Good setup with WAA being the main mode of precipitation |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 14:59:35 GMT -6
18z nam now getting in range.
Shows a 2-3 inch thump of WAA along 70, before the deformation zone takes shape north of the area.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 15:01:51 GMT -6
Yea nam is joining the north train. I’m going to be singing in the rain at this rate.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 12, 2019 15:03:13 GMT -6
It's hard to have a lot of faith in modeling at this point considering there's a substantial divergence with the vort max track of the "clipper" that's inside of 48hrs. But it does seem like models are converging on a track of the vort max with the main system from roughly KC to DVN which suggests a hit of WAA snow transitioning to sleet and possibly plain rain or more likely, FRDZ. That also means that the main deformation will either set up to the north or sweep through as a band of light/moderate snow. Right now this is looking like a possible low amount/high impact system so it still bears close watching. The shot of cold air coming down Saturday night and Sunday right ahead of the system just screams ice storm someplace. Good setup with WAA being the main mode of precipitation Yeah...as does the 850mb low lifting up across the area. Could be a messy setup with lots of p-types. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2019 15:44:30 GMT -6
NWS has accum around 1 inch Sunday night..up to around 2 inches in Columbia and Jeff city.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 16:00:09 GMT -6
18z gfs remains north.
It won’t quit
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 12, 2019 16:00:24 GMT -6
18z gfs is basically a whole lot of nothing south of I-70. Well that sure went to hell.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 16:15:05 GMT -6
18z gfs is basically a whole lot of nothing south of I-70. Well that sure went to hell. [br Seasonal trend is north. Experts like Chris saying the pattern favors more suppression. A model battle between the gfs and euro. It finally feels like winter |
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