|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2019 16:32:38 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Dec 12, 2019 17:20:07 GMT -6
Can’t look at the models very well on my phone.....was curious if there is anything other then plain cold rain showers late Friday night into Saturday morning? Low level temps look to warm as it stands now Thank you I appreciate your response!! |
|
twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
|
Post by twocat on Dec 12, 2019 20:24:43 GMT -6
I-70 has brine lines on it in St. Charles County from at least Cave Springs to the Blanchette bridge. Nothing that we could see in St. Louis County and we were on 70, 270 and 40.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Dec 12, 2019 20:29:55 GMT -6
Warren County already did their roads yesterday
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Dec 12, 2019 20:31:24 GMT -6
We saw some on a couple lanes of 141 between 21 and
44!
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2019 20:40:01 GMT -6
Nam looks to want to develop somethimg great on monday
|
|
|
|
Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Dec 12, 2019 20:46:39 GMT -6
I-70 has brine lines on it in St. Charles County from at least Cave Springs to the Blanchette bridge. Nothing that we could see in St. Louis County and we were on 70, 270 and 40. Brine on 55 south from City down into Jefferson county |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 20:48:05 GMT -6
Nam looks to want to develop somethimg great on monday Great for Chicago lol. Wagons north |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 12, 2019 20:50:21 GMT -6
Exactly so i do not have to plow lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 20:53:26 GMT -6
The nam quickly lifts the WAA snow north of 70 and then will swing the deformation band across northern Missouri and Illinois.
This is a huge nod to the gfs.
In fact, the nam is now the furtherest north of any model with the WAA.
Still, it should be emphasized the 18z euro was still sheared and south giving the metro an inch or two of snow
|
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Dec 12, 2019 20:55:00 GMT -6
I-70 has brine lines on it in St. Charles County from at least Cave Springs to the Blanchette bridge. Nothing that we could see in St. Louis County and we were on 70, 270 and 40. Brine on 55 south from City down into Jefferson county Farty-Far W and Lindbergh from Farty-Far to Sappington full of brine. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 20:58:38 GMT -6
18z euro ensembles looked solid for the metro points north and west
It’s showing no signs of joining the GFS camp
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2019 21:19:08 GMT -6
99 times out of 100 we see the NAM and GFS do this, then join the euro. They are inferior models. The euro definitely has had it's problems, but way more often it is generally correct.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 21:24:27 GMT -6
99 times out of 100 we see the NAM and GFS do this, then join the euro. They are inferior models. The euro definitely has had it's problems, but way more often it is generally correct. Agreed. It is slightly interesting that it appeared to be heading towards the euro camp at 12z and 18z, but I would always prefer to be sitting in a better spot with the euro solution. Still makes for a fun ride |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 21:55:40 GMT -6
There it is...
Euro KOs the gfs at 00z
Beautiful WAA along 70 and then poof
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 21:55:47 GMT -6
GFS flinching
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2019 21:57:51 GMT -6
Yep, thar she blows.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 21:58:19 GMT -6
00z gfs is as good as this storm gets for the 70 corridor
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 21:58:41 GMT -6
Snowman99, the model whisperer
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 12, 2019 22:00:30 GMT -6
Though it's totals are likely uh..inflated.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 22:03:55 GMT -6
Breakdown by p-type. That rain around the metro comes from the Saturday system  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 12, 2019 22:11:35 GMT -6
Gfs takes the metro close to 0 Wednesday morning.
That’s it for me tonight. I’ll take my nam false hope and go to bed.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 12, 2019 22:11:47 GMT -6
Yeah, hard to believe those qpf/snow totals with that ribbon of mid-level dry air never fully saturating during the event. Certainly it's going to be hard to get ice crystals to grow at least...  |
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 12, 2019 22:24:33 GMT -6
Breakdown by p-type. That rain around the metro comes from the Saturday system This map makes me think those of us in Franklin County should be more concerned about an ice storm. Doesn’t take much. |
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Dec 12, 2019 22:26:25 GMT -6
But on the other hand the moist ascent in the low levels is actually pretty impressive during the initial WAA phase with 30-35kts winds perpendicular to the tightly packed isobars on the isentropic chart. Though again the lift is concentrated below the DGZ so take some of the p-typing with a grain of salt. However, I have no expectation that the other models will come in this juiced and this probably just about represents the upper bound of possible outcomes.   |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 12, 2019 22:32:35 GMT -6
Is there nothing better that we (as Americans) can 'expect' from our weather models. Granted, I like seeing the further south solution as far as snow IMBY, but really, how much money has been thrown at this model or model upgrades. We are less than 3 days/72 hours from the target forecast time. Am I missing something, or are there others on this forum just as mystified by this? Why can't/isn't the American weather model the best on the planet??? Chris or anyone, any comments on this or am expecting too much. I frequently see the skill scores between the the major global models and we (GFS) don't appear to be getting better. Actually looks to be going the other way in some of the comparisons.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 12, 2019 22:36:28 GMT -6
GEM has a very disjointed system. Big surge of WAA snow and ice for the area then phase two never really materializes as it gets sheared out
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 12, 2019 22:44:35 GMT -6
GEM has a very disjointed system. Big surge of WAA snow and ice for the area then phase two never really materializes as it gets sheared out I could live with this.... I never want to see rain on top of several inches of snow again after last year..... |
|
steve
Wishcaster
Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 228
|
Post by steve on Dec 12, 2019 22:56:05 GMT -6
Smell that... fresh thread is needed soon!
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Dec 12, 2019 23:35:01 GMT -6
0Z UKMET has 0.7" of QPF along I-70.
|
|
