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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 24, 2020 11:12:58 GMT -6
12z HWRF looks like its going to have Laura make landfall in Louisiana as a sub 930 cane
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 24, 2020 11:22:03 GMT -6
12z HWRF looks like its going to have Laura make landfall in Louisiana as a sub 930 cane Very consistent with showing a Category 4 |
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 24, 2020 11:22:29 GMT -6
Also I think we maynhave a shotnof touching the century mark at least once the next few days
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 24, 2020 12:20:20 GMT -6
Laura is looking more symmetrical and organized last several hours...trying to re-develop a core as it approaches W Cuba.
It'll be interesting to see how any subsidence left in the wake of Marco affects Laura as it enters the Gulf...there's not a lot of CU in the S Gulf out ahead which makes me think there's some static stability to be overcome. If not...look out.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Aug 24, 2020 13:55:54 GMT -6
Still 1500 customers without power in Iowa from derecho.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 24, 2020 14:55:13 GMT -6
I'm getting a little rain. That wasn't supposed to happen.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 24, 2020 15:28:55 GMT -6
Down pour in st.peters must of hit convective temps. Literally heavy rain and 98 degrees. Crazy
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 24, 2020 15:42:08 GMT -6
It’s hot today! No wind either. Just hot and humid.
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 24, 2020 15:55:21 GMT -6
A week from tomorrow is Sept 1 and will be in the 70s! Love it!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 24, 2020 17:17:18 GMT -6
18z HWRF still turns Laura into a strong Category 4. It’s consistent at least
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 24, 2020 18:19:58 GMT -6
18z Euro has a cat 4 making land fall on the east side of Houston.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 24, 2020 19:05:24 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 24, 2020 19:07:09 GMT -6
Are you saying the 3k nam might not be a good model for this storm?  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 24, 2020 19:07:31 GMT -6
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 24, 2020 19:17:26 GMT -6
I see where the official “center” is on the tracking maps but it doesn’t seem to agree with the satellite imagery. There’s a massive blob of convection to the south then a spin coming off of land right now. I’m having trouble seeing the true center of Laura in between there.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Aug 24, 2020 20:16:33 GMT -6
Someone on twitter posted a wave forecast map and it showed 60 foot waves headed right into Texas .... that would be awful
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 24, 2020 20:38:44 GMT -6
Some of the previously tame intensity models like ECMWF and COAMPS are finally starting to "see" and "reflect" the very favorable conditions in the Gulf with Laura that HWRF has been hitting at all along. SSTs along the path approach or even exceed 31C, OHC is at least moderately high beyond the cool eddy just west of Cuba, and the system looks like it's going to get tucked under a nice upper level high with equatorward and poleward outflow channels. Dry air in the Gulf doesn't seem like it's going to be a big issue especially if shear remains low. It helps a lot that Laura will likely emerge into the Gulf without being a garbled mess. So I never think it's helpful to flippantly call for an intense (Cat 4/5) cyclone at this stage but I do think there's enough guidance to consider putting Cat 3 into some of the later forecast hours. On the other hand I wouldn't rule out a stronger (or weaker) storm either.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 24, 2020 20:53:45 GMT -6
10 pm adv has it going to 110mph
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 24, 2020 20:54:12 GMT -6
Wind map is already looking more impressive now.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 24, 2020 21:02:57 GMT -6
Laura could put on quite the show tomorrow and tomorrow night, and maybe wednesday and wed. night .
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 24, 2020 21:04:03 GMT -6
10 pm adv has it going to 110mph Chickens, they should have foregone their years of experience and followed the recommendations of some noob amateur on a Stl weather forum  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 24, 2020 21:23:06 GMT -6
I could absolutely see Laura going the way Michael went. Michael was projected to be 2/3 at landfall at this stage I believe?
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 24, 2020 21:35:28 GMT -6
I could absolutely see Laura going the way Michael went. Michael was projected to be 2/3 at landfall at this stage I believe? If I recall Michael went from 2-5 in 24hours - seem like this will get going pretty quickly once if completely gets into the Gulf |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 24, 2020 21:43:28 GMT -6
3km NAM gets Laura down to 880mb. That would be in the top ten of lowest barometric pressures ever recorded
It’s totally unrealistic and not going to happen but fun to look at
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 25, 2020 0:32:32 GMT -6
oz Euro looks like cat 4, around 940 mb right on east side of Galveston/Houston again.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 25, 2020 1:24:18 GMT -6
Yikes. ALL members of the EPS have a TX landfall, none in LA. Has Galveston as the bullseye. I'm thinking watches should be extended down along the TX coast at 4am.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 25, 2020 3:05:36 GMT -6
NHC has Laura becoming a major now with 115mph at landfall. Hurricane watches do include Houston/Galveston.
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 25, 2020 4:47:18 GMT -6
Four weeks til fall!!! Just sayin’.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 25, 2020 6:21:47 GMT -6
We now have hurricane Laura.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 25, 2020 6:25:54 GMT -6
Looks like deep convection beginning to establish itself around the center of Laura now. Expect rapid intensification through the day.
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