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Post by ajd446 on Aug 25, 2020 6:51:08 GMT -6
I am going with 103 for the new record high at lambert today. Temps have been over achieving by 5 to 7 degrees recently. I am probably wrong but lets see what happens.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 7:27:33 GMT -6
If it gets to 100 degress today, where's my heat advisory?
Also it was quite smokey smelling this morning. Look on the visible satellite image explains why. Very thick smoke on the satellite this morning. Not the thickest, but enough to be visible and produce an odor.
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Post by bdgwx on Aug 25, 2020 7:58:22 GMT -6
Here is the 12Z HRRR smoke analysis. It is definitely hazy out this morning.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 9:30:20 GMT -6
I am going with 103 for the new record high at lambert today. Temps have been over achieving by 5 to 7 degrees recently. I am probably wrong but lets see what happens. No way dude...925mb temps are 25-26* which mixes out to 93* at the surface. Not even remotely a supportive setup for 100*+...especially this time of year. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 25, 2020 10:04:36 GMT -6
Cool eddy seems to be doing at least a little bit of slowing atm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 25, 2020 10:10:43 GMT -6
Cool eddy seems to be doing at least a little bit of slowing atm. Been reading there’s a small amount of shear keeping Laura in check atm as well |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 10:15:04 GMT -6
Laura is rapidly organizing and developing an expansive, symmetrical CDO now that it's over open water. I would expect nearly steady deepening and possibly rapid intensification once it gets over the loop current and develops an eyewall. Wind analysis shows <5kts of shear over Laura associated with an upper-level anticyclone overhead. This is nearly a perfect setup for strengthening.
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ilnois
Wishcaster
Columbia, IL
Posts: 123
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Post by ilnois on Aug 25, 2020 10:34:26 GMT -6
Laura is rapidly organizing and developing an expansive, symmetrical CDO now that it's over open water. I would expect nearly steady deepening and possibly rapid intensification once it gets over the loop current and develops an eyewall. Wind analysis shows <5kts of shear over Laura associated with an upper-level anticyclone overhead. This is nearly a perfect setup for strengthening. Do you think it is possible that meaningful rain may reach the metro? If a further west track inland materializes? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 10:59:36 GMT -6
Laura is rapidly organizing and developing an expansive, symmetrical CDO now that it's over open water. I would expect nearly steady deepening and possibly rapid intensification once it gets over the loop current and develops an eyewall. Wind analysis shows <5kts of shear over Laura associated with an upper-level anticyclone overhead. This is nearly a perfect setup for strengthening. Do you think it is possible that meaningful rain may reach the metro? If a further west track inland materializes? It sure looks like it...those storms that hit Houston or the upper TX coast are usually players for us. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 25, 2020 11:42:28 GMT -6
low level circulation reaallly starting to wrap up under the explosive convection.
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Post by unclesam6 on Aug 25, 2020 11:46:15 GMT -6
convective cloud tops also being circulated now too. Eye starting to develop it seems on vis. i.imgur.com/EOhyNLo.png |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Aug 25, 2020 12:18:34 GMT -6
12z euro has a 938 mb Cat 4 making landfall just East of Houston
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Aug 25, 2020 12:21:07 GMT -6
Do you think it is possible that meaningful rain may reach the metro? If a further west track inland materializes? It sure looks like it...those storms that hit Houston or the upper TX coast are usually players for us. NWS says most of the heavy rain stays well south if STL. Guess we will see if adjustments are needed in the coming days. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 25, 2020 12:27:38 GMT -6
Euro has 161kt or 185mph wind gust at Port Arthur, Tx during landfall
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 25, 2020 12:29:56 GMT -6
Euro also takes the remnants of Laura across the southern counties as a 995 low bringing lots of rain and wind
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Post by toddatfarmington on Aug 25, 2020 12:32:48 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 25, 2020 13:53:21 GMT -6
Convection is really firing around Laura's center. She might be about to take off  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 14:21:34 GMT -6
Looks like 94/95 is the best it's gonna get today. Looks like another year without 100+ Degree heat (Ambient Temp) is almost under the belt.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 14:26:46 GMT -6
Convection is really firing around Laura's center. She might be about to take off It looks like it's developing an eyewall now...getting a ragged looking eye on satellite. I wish the Navy site was working so I could get microwave data. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 14:28:58 GMT -6
Looking back at the records we have not had a temp higher than 95*F at the airport or Belleville/Scott this year. LSX kissed 95 a couple times this Summer but never exceeded it according to !AccuNotWx!'s Past data. If so that means it was even cooler than last Summer in which the high temp then was I believe 97 maybe 98 at Lambert. Most of the Summer has been spent in the 80s to low 90s predominately which is actually quite average. Nights have been a little toasty due to higher humidity but that was the case last year too. Either way it seems like our Summers might be cooling down overall, but getting more and more humid which means the air temp might not look scary but with the added humidity it's still quite oppressive and can feel like 100+. Too bad the winter's aren't cooling down but everything has trade-offs it seems.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 14:31:36 GMT -6
NAM stronger and farther west with Laura's Remnants @ hr 54/57 then during the 12Z run.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 14:33:23 GMT -6
Saint Louis might not be out of the woods yet with Laura especially if the ridge to the north ends up weaker then expected which may allow it to come a bit more northward before the sharp east turn. Still I think most along and south of I-70 could get a decent soaking from Laura's Remnants and perhaps even a slight tornado threat along and east of the Mississippi.
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 25, 2020 14:34:54 GMT -6
It was 97 at Lambert yesterday plus at least 2 other times this year
Look at nws data not accucrap.
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Post by cozpregon on Aug 25, 2020 14:39:43 GMT -6
Can obviously see the increase in tstorms on the south side- but the storms further south towards the Yucatan may be hindering the outflow to the south. May be why it hasn't taken off yet  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 14:41:47 GMT -6
Looking back at the records we have not had a temp higher than 95*F at the airport or Belleville/Scott this year. LSX kissed 95 a couple times this Summer but never exceeded it according to !AccuNotWx!'s Past data. If so that means it was even cooler than last Summer in which the high temp then was I believe 97 maybe 98 at Lambert. Most of the Summer has been spent in the 80s to low 90s predominately which is actually quite average. Nights have been a little toasty due to higher humidity but that was the case last year too. Either way it seems like our Summers might be cooling down overall, but getting more and more humid which means the air temp might not look scary but with the added humidity it's still quite oppressive and can feel like 100+. Too bad the winter's aren't cooling down but everything has trade-offs it seems. Huh?  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 14:44:09 GMT -6
Tropical systems always seem to start RIC (Rapid Intensification Cycles) right after sunset into the overnight hours. I suspect that will happen with Laura as well. Could see it balloon quickly to an strong 2 or even a 3 by 10AM tomorrow. If it does it will have a chance to reach a cat 4 right before landfall. Only thing that might stop that is shear that's expected to occur/develop as the system approaches the shoreline.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 14:45:28 GMT -6
Yeah, coz...if those hot towers to the south of the center wrap in it could go kaboom real quick. But you're right...that area of storms over Yucatan does appear to be disrupting the outflow channel on the S side.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 25, 2020 14:46:29 GMT -6
Looking back at the records we have not had a temp higher than 95*F at the airport or Belleville/Scott this year. LSX kissed 95 a couple times this Summer but never exceeded it according to !AccuNotWx!'s Past data. If so that means it was even cooler than last Summer in which the high temp then was I believe 97 maybe 98 at Lambert. Most of the Summer has been spent in the 80s to low 90s predominately which is actually quite average. Nights have been a little toasty due to higher humidity but that was the case last year too. Either way it seems like our Summers might be cooling down overall, but getting more and more humid which means the air temp might not look scary but with the added humidity it's still quite oppressive and can feel like 100+. Too bad the winter's aren't cooling down but everything has trade-offs it seems. Huh? Doesn't show that in it's 30 day month by month data/forecast. Obviously that goes by something else. Either way unless you can find a 100 degree reading from the last 2-3 summers triple digits have been getting rarer. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 14:48:09 GMT -6
It goes by the official observations at Lambert...
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 25, 2020 14:51:14 GMT -6
All I know is that this has easily been the most humid summer I can ever remember. I don't care if it's been 95 or 97 or 85...it's been miserable to be out working in it. I've never been more ready for October and November in my life!
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