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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 3, 2020 6:39:31 GMT -6
GFS has backed off the cool down next week too. A heck of an impressive front still with a tremendous temp gradient for this time of year. The low gets cut off out west. We still have some cool days but no more 40's at night. Denver, however, goes from near 100 degrees Saturday to mid 30's and rain (snow in higher elevations) a few days later.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 3, 2020 8:35:09 GMT -6
GFS has backed off the cool down next week too. A heck of an impressive front still with a tremendous temp gradient for this time of year. The low gets cut off out west. We still have some cool days but no more 40's at night. Denver, however, goes from near 100 degrees Saturday to mid 30's and rain (snow in higher elevations) a few days later. Still a lot of disagreement with how that plays out...models have trended towards a cut-off or trof split scenario but the GFS is still insistent that the shortwave keeps digging and ejects out into the MMRV and the GEM agrees. The EC and JMA are way out west with the energy due to a strong upper high off the W Coast. Ensembles are somewhere inbetween. But as you said, still a good shot of cool air which should be very autumn like. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 3, 2020 10:37:59 GMT -6
12z GFS holds the course.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 3, 2020 10:45:03 GMT -6
I don't know that I've ever seen a gradient like that the first week of September. Wow. And the amount of snow it drops across CO, WY, and western NE is insane. That's one hell of a storm system.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 3, 2020 15:32:28 GMT -6
Nothing popin with this cold front...
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 3, 2020 17:40:43 GMT -6
Some decent CAPE and little CIN ahead of the front - which is moving thru Troy right now
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 3, 2020 18:03:02 GMT -6
First little cells starting to develop in a broken band between Osage Beach, MO and Jerseyville, IL.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 3, 2020 18:46:13 GMT -6
Denver goes from 100 Sunday to 35 Monday night. Incredible.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Sept 3, 2020 18:50:00 GMT -6
Here, high of 98 on Sunday down to a high of 61 on Tuesday. Sheesh.
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 3, 2020 19:44:50 GMT -6
very few sprinkles when I took the dog out. Thank god the humidity will be gone soon.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436 
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Sept 3, 2020 20:09:41 GMT -6
Denver goes from 100 Sunday to 35 Monday night. Incredible. I will be here to witness and take photos for you guys!  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 3, 2020 20:11:27 GMT -6
very few sprinkles when I took the dog out. Thank god the humidity will be gone soon. It was pretty spectacular in central MO this evening. Pretty much felt the Td dropping steadily in the hour or two I was outside after work. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Sept 3, 2020 20:12:17 GMT -6
Denver goes from 100 Sunday to 35 Monday night. Incredible. I will be here to witness and take photos for you guys! You should find a good spot to do a before and after... and if you can, take temperature measurements and include them in the photos... would make for a really cool social media post on twitter/facebook. |
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Sept 3, 2020 20:16:00 GMT -6
Meteorologists already talking about how it could be the biggest temperature swing in September in Denver’s history. Also if DIA records measurable snow it would be the first time in 20 years during the month of September.
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weatherfan17- Denver, CO
Junior Forecaster
From Ste. Genevieve, MO currently residing in the Mile High City, Denver CO
Posts: 436
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Post by weatherfan17- Denver, CO on Sept 3, 2020 20:17:15 GMT -6
I will be here to witness and take photos for you guys! You should find a good spot to do a before and after... and if you can, take temperature measurements and include them in the photos... would make for a really cool social media post on twitter/facebook. Great Idea, one day outside in my swimming trunks. The next day with a snow shovel? Lol |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 4, 2020 7:13:04 GMT -6
Models seem to be trending towards the cut off solution overall which muddies the water here in regards to the frontal boundary passage. It looks like the front could hang up over us or just to the north which keeps us in the moist, southerly flow until later in the week. Tough forecast with a very strong temp gradient and potential for heavy rainfall north of the boundary as energy trickles NE ahead of the cut off.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 4, 2020 7:23:45 GMT -6
GEM and GFS both bring sloppy snowflakes into the TX/OK panhandle. On September 8th.
If the front hangs up along that tight of a gradient, there's going to be a hell of a lot of rain somewhere.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 4, 2020 10:09:53 GMT -6
Feels great outside today!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 4, 2020 11:53:08 GMT -6
I've got a gut feeling that this winter is going to be severe. I've never seen a front like this in September before...not even close. Between the active tropics and the high latitude blocking that's been showing up, I'm thinking we're in for a doozy this year. The combination of the weak/moderate Nina and warm water in the high-latutudes of both the Pacific and Atlantic is going to continue to favor strong blocking, IMO. And coming out of a wet summer and likely fall, moisture should be plentiful. Hopefully we can get a supportive large-scale pattern to set up frequently and bring some good winter storms.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Sept 4, 2020 11:58:41 GMT -6
I've got a gut feeling that this winter is going to be severe. I've never seen a front like this in September before...not even close. Between the active tropics and the high latitude blocking that's been showing up, I'm thinking we're in for a doozy this year. The combination of the weak/moderate Nina and warm water in the high-latutudes of both the Pacific and Atlantic is going to continue to favor strong blocking, IMO. And coming out of a wet summer and likely fall, moisture should be plentiful. Hopefully we can get a supportive large-scale pattern to set up frequently and bring some good winter storms. I share your feelings 100%. I've seen a rough correlation over the years between September weather and Dec/January weather. We'll see if we get that cold start to November again but I'm willing to bet most of Oct and into Nov. are quite mild. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 4, 2020 12:53:14 GMT -6
Was really hoping to be in a new house by winter. Not looking likely. The market is crazy right now. Every house we find it’s a bidding war.
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Post by John G -west belleville on Sept 4, 2020 13:24:47 GMT -6
Was really hoping to be in a new house by winter. Not looking likely. The market is crazy right now. Every house we find it’s a bidding war. Family of 5 in a tiny 2 bed apartment. I know the pain very well |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Sept 4, 2020 14:11:16 GMT -6
Was really hoping to be in a new house by winter. Not looking likely. The market is crazy right now. Every house we find it’s a bidding war. Family of 5 in a tiny 2 bed apartment. I know the pain very well We have a house and we’re going to keep it as a weekend summer house. It’s on the meremac River though and we don’t want to live here with the flooding. |
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Post by Jeffmw on Sept 4, 2020 21:29:54 GMT -6
Any chance on still seeing 40s for the lows this coming week?
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Post by cozpregon on Sept 4, 2020 22:13:17 GMT -6
Looking more and more like an amazing storm for WY/COL
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 4, 2020 22:47:32 GMT -6
I've got a gut feeling that this winter is going to be severe. I've never seen a front like this in September before...not even close. Between the active tropics and the high latitude blocking that's been showing up, I'm thinking we're in for a doozy this year. The combination of the weak/moderate Nina and warm water in the high-latutudes of both the Pacific and Atlantic is going to continue to favor strong blocking, IMO. And coming out of a wet summer and likely fall, moisture should be plentiful. Hopefully we can get a supportive large-scale pattern to set up frequently and bring some good winter storms. Southeast Ridge would beg to defer. Models already showing it to hold tight over the next couple weeks or months driving storms north and west as it stays quite strong. I suspect this will continue from time to time through the Winter. So while there could be some solid storms, I'm also worried that most will be steered away from us, or they hit us but we stay in the warm sector keeping us mostly if not all rain. That said it won't be as snow-less as 2011-2012 or 2016-2017 but it will probably end below average with above average temps but there could be some cold shots and clippers if the PV stays weak allowing the cold air to plunge down. If we get a weak PV it could save the Winter for us, but its a big if at this stage.
Can already see it happening with the storm next week with models either slowing it down, or causing it's track to shift west with time. Summer is totally not done yet. Still some to go. Will it be in the upper 90s and 100s? No, but lots of 80s and low 90s quite possible into October with brief breaks of a few days between hot spells. Almost all the seasonal globals save for maybe the Euro as I haven't see it show a much warmer than normal winter but wetter for us before turning droughty and infernally hot into the Spring and Summer 2021. So is the trend of La Ninas. 2011-2012 was a La Nina I believe but it might of been fleeting, am I calling for that again. Not clear but something to keep in the backs of our minds over the next several months.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Sept 4, 2020 22:55:58 GMT -6
Any chance on still seeing 40s for the lows this coming week? At this point... No unless your located in the northern most tier of counties than possibly, but Saint Louis south, outside of sheltered valleys? At this time nope. Could change as its still several days out but 40s will likely wait until late October. Will we get teased? Absolutely. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Sept 5, 2020 9:34:06 GMT -6
We want that ridge unless you're into occasional moisture starved clippers...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Sept 5, 2020 9:41:11 GMT -6
Euro for Denver. Going from mid 90s heat to 7" of snow in a day  |
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Post by Snowman99 on Sept 5, 2020 9:56:23 GMT -6
Wow so according to bwg...it'll definitely be a harsh winter. 🙂
Denver will be an interesting place to be the next few days.
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