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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 28, 2020 17:15:27 GMT -6
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 28, 2020 17:20:02 GMT -6
Oh my lol
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 28, 2020 17:32:18 GMT -6
Are we expecting anymore showers this evening? We need something to kick the humidity out! Man is it MOIST out there! Last check here 90*/78*F...NASTY 93* and DP is 77. |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 28, 2020 17:35:30 GMT -6
It is very hazy out today. The dust was more noticeable than I was expecting.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 28, 2020 17:41:08 GMT -6
Sunset tonight should be pretty cool
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 28, 2020 17:41:31 GMT -6
HRRRv4 has widespread 5"+ amounts with a pocket of 10".  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 28, 2020 17:58:47 GMT -6
Dusty  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 28, 2020 19:34:07 GMT -6
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jun 28, 2020 20:03:33 GMT -6
Is this a pivot type setup causing a dump that could easily shift any given direction? Totally coming in blind not following things far enough back and the thought of a 15 mile south shift gives me flashbacks of lake front property |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 28, 2020 20:23:08 GMT -6
Soundings are tropical storm like where this sets up.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 28, 2020 20:24:30 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 28, 2020 20:38:27 GMT -6
NAM 3 has 20" up toward Quicny
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 28, 2020 20:42:39 GMT -6
That's a lot! That's where the SREF is precip heavy as well. So we have mesoscale models north and global models south.
This looks like a setup where most can expect an inch or two with a few select locations getting flash flood style totals.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 28, 2020 20:53:55 GMT -6
00z HRRR is a further west into my neck of the woods.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 28, 2020 20:58:25 GMT -6
Gonna be a nice mini 'landocane' with this thing tomorrow night. Where ever it actually hits, it's gonna look potentially sweet on radar.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 28, 2020 20:59:20 GMT -6
If you haven't yet just go animate the 3kNAM sim radar. I mean...WTF...
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 28, 2020 21:08:01 GMT -6
If you haven't yet just go animate the 3kNAM sim radar. I mean...WTF... Wow! Crazy |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 28, 2020 21:09:27 GMT -6
someone is going to get bamboozled
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 28, 2020 21:23:05 GMT -6
If you haven't yet just go animate the 3kNAM sim radar. I mean...WTF... On our website forecast disco I used the word "Land hurricane" because I had no other way of describing it lmao |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 28, 2020 22:31:59 GMT -6
Speaking of landcanes check out what's going on in Minnesota  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 29, 2020 7:44:19 GMT -6
Most model guidance right now is suggesting that areas from the west to the north and including the metro area have the highest odds of excessive rainfall. The NWS has issued a flash flood watch for parts of the area.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 29, 2020 8:08:29 GMT -6
has confirmed that a weak tornado hit just west of Cuba Saturday afternoon.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAINT LOUIS MO
849 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2020
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 6/27/2020 CUBA, MISSOURI TORNADO EVENT...
RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 85 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.8 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0
START DATE: 6/27/2020
START TIME: 5:42 PM
START LOCATION: 3.4 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUBA, MISSOURI
START LAT/LON: 38.087/-91.457
END DATE: 6/27/2020
END TIME: 5:44 PM
END LOCATION: 2.8 MILES NORTHWEST OF CUBA, MO
END LAT/LON: 38.088/-91.443
SURVEY SUMMARY:
A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN THE EARLY EVENING JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF CUBA, MISSOURI. THE TORNADO FIRST TOUCHED DOWN TO
THE WEST OF INDIAN LAKE, ALONG LAKESHORE DRIVE. THE TORNADO DID
SOME MINOR DAMAGE TO A ROOF ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKESHORE DRIVE.
THE WORST OF THE DAMAGE OCCURRED TO TWO RESIDENCES ON THE EAST
SIDE OF LAKESHORE DRIVE, ON THE WEST SIDE OF INDIAN LAKE. A FEW
TREES WERE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED, AND A HOME LOST THE MAJORITY OF
ITS ROOF. ADDITIONALLY, A BOAT DOCK WAS COMPLETELY FLIPPED OVER.
THE TORNADO MOVED EAST ACROSS THE LAKE, SNAPPING A FEW OTHER TREES
AND DOING SOME MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME HOME ALONG INDIAN
HILLS DRIVE. THE TORNADO QUICKLY LIFTED JUST BEFORE IT HIT
SEMINOLE ROAD.
ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE AND SOME MINOR HOUSE DAMAGE (A FEW SHINGLES
AND SIDING PEELED OFF) WAS NOTED ALONG DD HIGHWAY WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DAMAGE NEAR THE LAKE. THIS DAMAGE WAS DEEMED
TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE, CAUSED BY A SURGE IN THE REAR
FLANK DOWNDRAFT OF THE THUNDERSTORM.
NWS ST. LOUIS WOULD LIKE TO THANK RODNEY NEFF, THE EMERGENCY
MANAGER IN CUBA, MISSOURI FOR HIS EXTENSIVE HELP IN SURVEYING THE
DAMAGE.
EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE
FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:
EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH
NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS
STORM DATA.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 29, 2020 9:28:01 GMT -6
WPC excessive rainfall discussion characterizes the flash flood threat tonight as "higher end" and "higher impact". Sounds like they stuck with the slight risk mainly due to uncertainty.
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Post by jmg378s on Jun 29, 2020 9:29:38 GMT -6
Relevant portion of WPC discussion:
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 29, 2020 9:43:58 GMT -6
What's your thoughts on the heavy rain threat Chris?
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Post by bdgwx on Jun 29, 2020 10:22:28 GMT -6
The WPC just upgraded areas to the west and northwest of the metro area to a moderate risk.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 29, 2020 10:51:02 GMT -6
Here’s the WPC 48 hour QPF map  |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jun 29, 2020 10:51:51 GMT -6
Im looking at the models and some feel more like winter mode than mid summer flash flooding numbers with how focused and high some of the numbers. The short term models seems to be shifting the high totals south thoug
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 29, 2020 10:53:24 GMT -6
1.43”!official total at KFAM. Some locally heavier amounts were measured. Their was a damage path through the central part of the county last night, with some damage to a few homes and outbuildings. In the KFAM area, numerous trees damaged and limbs were downed. Confirmed tornado? Or straight line winds? Confirmed. EF1 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 29, 2020 12:07:53 GMT -6
Confirmed tornado? Or straight line winds? Confirmed. EF1 Do you have a link to the report for this one? |
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