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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2021 23:20:52 GMT -6
CMC makes the 11th a watcher too The CMC is also called the GEM from what I know at least. |
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iceman
Wishcaster
Arnold, MO
Posts: 104 
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Post by iceman on Jan 2, 2021 23:23:44 GMT -6
CMC makes the 11th a watcher too The CMC is also called the GEM from what I know at least. yep, forget that, also gdps is in on that as well correct? |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 2, 2021 23:27:06 GMT -6
The CMC is also called the GEM from what I know at least. yep, forget that, also gdps is in on that as well correct? Yep that's correct! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 2, 2021 23:28:44 GMT -6
Radar has exploded to the NE up near SPI and DEC...unreal!
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 2, 2021 23:55:48 GMT -6
based on the upper air dynamics, I would say things do get more favorable for snow as we get deeper in January. Can't really say what's going to happen in the next week - still getting alot of Pacific influence, so chances are low for any remarkable winter weather, but of course we'll have to watch and see how any individual storm systems can interact with the temperatures at the time - if anything, IMO, before the middle of January would most likely be an icing event until we can get the deep cold air to migrate into the midwest beyond the middle of January.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2021 0:42:12 GMT -6
35dbz+ returns just north of DEC...it looks like some areas may get 3-4" up that way while we get another sparce dusting at best. I just don't know what we have to do to get a decent snowfall around here anymore...
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 3, 2021 1:23:21 GMT -6
35dbz+ returns just north of DEC...it looks like some areas may get 3-4" up that way while we get another sparce dusting at best. I just don't know what we have to do to get a decent snowfall around here anymore... Lol I didn’t get a single flake from this one! Looks like the returns on the MO are pretty much shut down at this point now. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 3, 2021 1:46:16 GMT -6
Little better than a dusting here mostly on elevated surfaces. 98% of gravel driveway is not covered. Temp at 31° yet with a slight breeze out of the w/sw
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 3, 2021 1:49:28 GMT -6
Radar has exploded to the NE up near SPI and DEC...unreal! Why couldn't it of exploded over us! 😕 |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2021 2:15:25 GMT -6
Report of 8” out of Monticello, IL lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2021 7:45:27 GMT -6
Report of 8” out of Monticello, IL lol I can't even wrap my head around how much better this storm looked within several hours time and ~75mi. It went from basically flurries to a full blown snowstorm. I think we're cursed... |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 3, 2021 8:25:02 GMT -6
Report of 8” out of Monticello, IL lol Did they even have an advisory going? |
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jan 3, 2021 9:06:19 GMT -6
Just drove from eureka to Fenton area and about 1 mile either side of antire on 44 is amazing how such a small area has snow and so beautiful I had to pull over and take some photos.  |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 3, 2021 10:05:46 GMT -6
Report of 8” out of Monticello, IL lol Omg! 😫 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2021 10:08:09 GMT -6
As shown by the gfs at 12z today, it actually reminds me very much of a system sometime in February of I think 2007. Temps were in the low to mid 30’s but the snow came at night and we got like 4-5”. It even warmed up to near 40 the next day but there wasn’t much melting due to cloud cover. I suppose something like that is possible.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2021 10:12:08 GMT -6
As shown by the gfs at 12z today, it actually reminds me very much of a system sometime in February of I think 2007. Temps were in the low to mid 30’s but the snow came at night and we got like 4-5”. It even warmed up to near 40 the next day but there wasn’t much melting due to cloud cover. I suppose something like that is possible. The models have been showing a favorable 500 vort track with that system so it bears some watching. The GFSv16 continues to be beefy with snowfall totals around here |
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Post by Jeffmw on Jan 3, 2021 10:15:07 GMT -6
It maybe cold but it’s nice and bright today.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2021 10:20:09 GMT -6
As shown by the gfs at 12z today, it actually reminds me very much of a system sometime in February of I think 2007. Temps were in the low to mid 30’s but the snow came at night and we got like 4-5”. It even warmed up to near 40 the next day but there wasn’t much melting due to cloud cover. I suppose something like that is possible. The models have been showing a favorable 500 vort track with that system so it bears some watching. The GFSv16 continues to be beefy with snowfall totals around here I'm sure it'll fall apart over us somehow... |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2021 10:25:15 GMT -6
The models have been showing a favorable 500 vort track with that system so it bears some watching. The GFSv16 continues to be beefy with snowfall totals around here I'm sure it'll fall apart over us somehow... I’m sure we will somehow get screwed out of snow. But in the meantime the GEM agrees with the GFSv16 so we have that going for us which is nice |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2021 10:28:11 GMT -6
Gfs v16 and Gem look nearly identical. Nice area wide snow. Borderline temps but at least it’s something to watch inside of 4 days
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2021 10:37:44 GMT -6
I just don't see enough cold air. Even if it would snow, it'll all melt. This has another f**ing disaster written all over it.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2021 10:43:19 GMT -6
I definitely agree with that statement, it will really come down to time of day and precipitation rates to determine whether we get anything. If the 850’s are cold enough and the rates are good , that will usually pull temps down to 32-34 . If it’s at night we have a chance for some accumulation, daytime not so much .
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2021 10:52:30 GMT -6
We would be looking at late Wed. night into Thurs. morning. All models show it with the exception of the icon. These little modified clippers can be good to us. As said, temps are a factor here. Canadian is predictably colder, but GFS has been ticking the temps down a bit each of the last few runs. And it was a few degrees too warm with this last system. I think we have something here...as of this moment lol. Precip/snowfall intensity has upticked as well the last few runs. With that sort of setup, it's likely we would struggle to get warmer than 33/34 during the day Thurs.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2021 10:57:19 GMT -6
The cold really comes to town by mid month on the 12z gfs.
Looks like it might be showing the surface level impacts of the SSW now.
Very nice
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2021 11:01:26 GMT -6
The one thing that system has going for us is that it looks to actually pick up some modified Gulf moisture. And models seem to be trending towards stronger ridging over the top and hence more cold air which has been a common theme lately. But thermo profiles are definitely borderline...what else is new?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2021 11:03:46 GMT -6
I was noticing that too, WSC...after the potential storm around the 10th-12th the arctic air really starts to unload out of Canada.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 3, 2021 11:07:47 GMT -6
The cold really comes to town by mid month on the 12z gfs. Looks like it might be showing the surface level impacts of the SSW now. Very nice As long as the Pacific plays ball by Mid Month then it's almost all but assured. If it doesn't then disappointment city awaits. GFS and GEM/CMC shows ridging along the West coast or at least very close to it, so that's a promising sign. If the Euro starts showing then we might... Might be in business.
One thing is pretty much guaranteed however, we're not going to see a 'torch' pattern anytime soon. At worst slightly above average temps, but nothing extreme. More likely seasonal overall.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 3, 2021 11:09:34 GMT -6
Beautiful and comfortable outside! Smoking two chuck roasts today!
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 3, 2021 11:10:22 GMT -6
Beautiful and comfortable outside! Smoking two chuck roasts today! Nice to dust off the sunglasses for once in a little while. Enjoy that sun while it lasts... |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 3, 2021 11:17:33 GMT -6
nice little 1042 plateau high coming off the rocks mid-to-late month. definitely has the look of beefy polar cold.
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