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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2021 11:27:39 GMT -6
Ukie has a good thumping of snow south of 70 Thursday
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2021 11:56:11 GMT -6
Pain
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2021 12:00:55 GMT -6
I can't describe the level of frustration in watching that thing blow up literally 30mi away. It went from a broken pinwheel of faint returns to 35dbz+ heavy snow within hours. The river valley just eats weak, moisture starved snow storms alive. Sucks!
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2021 12:09:39 GMT -6
Where is maddog..I think his name is? Doesn't he live up in the Springfield area? Heard from him a couple times this winter, but not much.
maddogchief...last post was dec 10 it looks like. Usually does his posting in the winter. Hope he's ok.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2021 12:21:01 GMT -6
Euro is bone dry here with late week system..keeps it west then south of here. Sounds about right.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2021 12:24:30 GMT -6
Who knows , the Euro has been less than stellar. It’s not nearly the model it used to be .
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 3, 2021 12:52:20 GMT -6
The CMC is also called the GEM from what I know at least. yep, forget that, also gdps is in on that as well correct? Yes, CMC is the institution that operates the GDPS which stands for Global Deterministic Prediction System and RDPS where the R is regional. I believe it used to be called the GEM though (GGEM for global and RGEM for regional). Similarly, ECMWF is the institution that operates the IFS which stands for Integrated Forecast System. Nobody calls it that though. In fact, you'd probably get made fun of if you referred to it as the IFS. |
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iceman
Wishcaster
Arnold, MO
Posts: 104 
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Post by iceman on Jan 3, 2021 13:05:06 GMT -6
Gfs v16 and Gem look nearly identical. Nice area wide snow. Borderline temps but at least it’s something to watch inside of 4 days GFS V16 looks great outside of temps above freezing nearly the entire time until after it pushes through |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2021 14:04:30 GMT -6
EPS isn’t very excited about snow around here next week taking the moisture south of here. But it also wanted to take the last system wayyyy to far west so you can’t trust it like you use to
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2021 14:32:10 GMT -6
Euro certainly isn’t what it used to be for whatever reason. A gfs/gem blend has been most reliable this season.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2021 14:48:24 GMT -6
I could see it go either way , I could very well see the precipitation field slide off to our south west . We don’t have the best of luck here in St. Louis for winter storms, so you never know.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 3, 2021 15:44:02 GMT -6
18Z models so far as one member would like to say is 'Wagons South'. Not feeling this one, but we'll see.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2021 16:26:57 GMT -6
18Z models so far as one member would like to say is 'Wagons South'. Not feeling this one, but we'll see. Not sure which models you’re referring to. Gfs, para gfs, and nam are maybe a hair south but pretty well where we need them. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2021 16:41:14 GMT -6
The GFSv16 did come in noticeably further south and weaker but that’s getting pretty nit picky at this range
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iceman
Wishcaster
Arnold, MO
Posts: 104
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Post by iceman on Jan 3, 2021 16:47:58 GMT -6
18Z models so far as one member would like to say is 'Wagons South'. Not feeling this one, but we'll see. Not sure which models you’re referring to. Gfs, para gfs, and nam are maybe a hair south but pretty well where we need them. Agreed, a hair south at most, with a few days to change could end up perfect..... or a disaster |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 3, 2021 18:04:15 GMT -6
I can't describe the level of frustration in watching that thing blow up literally 30mi away. It went from a broken pinwheel of faint returns to 35dbz+ heavy snow within hours. The river valley just eats weak, moisture starved snow storms alive. Sucks! I know Ryan speaks of that a lot. Haven't seen him post too much this year. We need a big regional snowstorm and synoptically, I do believe the pattern becomes favorable after the middle of January. Not sure how the triple vorticies are going to play out with the ssw - I hear it's good for winter weather, but who knows. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 3, 2021 18:07:18 GMT -6
Not sure which models you’re referring to. Gfs, para gfs, and nam are maybe a hair south but pretty well where we need them. Agreed, a hair south at most, with a few days to change could end up perfect..... or a disaster Too far south, and it gets cut off from what little cold air there is, then we have a wasted low with just a cold rain down south and dry wx here. That's kind of what I'm thinking will happen anyway, so I haven't really been digging into the details on this week's system. I'm more anticipating the synoptic set up later in the month to give us snow. If the systems this week stay far enough north, I could see some freezing drizzle, but that's not something I'm looking forward to |
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Post by RyanD on Jan 3, 2021 19:42:05 GMT -6
I can't describe the level of frustration in watching that thing blow up literally 30mi away. It went from a broken pinwheel of faint returns to 35dbz+ heavy snow within hours. The river valley just eats weak, moisture starved snow storms alive. Sucks! I know Ryan speaks of that a lot. Haven't seen him post too much this year. We need a big regional snowstorm and synoptically, I do believe the pattern becomes favorable after the middle of January. Not sure how the triple vorticies are going to play out with the ssw - I hear it's good for winter weather, but who knows. Who me?? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2021 21:06:05 GMT -6
i'm sure he meant ryan maue..maybe?
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Post by RyanD on Jan 3, 2021 21:25:18 GMT -6
i'm sure he meant ryan maue..maybe? Lol, probably. I just know that I do complain about being missed by 30 miles but then again that's literally everyone on this forum as well. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 3, 2021 21:45:45 GMT -6
i'm sure he meant ryan maue..maybe? Lol, probably. I just know that I do complain about being missed by 30 miles but then again that's literally everyone on this forum as well. Yo u are correct, RyanD. You speak of snowstorms just up the road from you when you get barely anything (my words paraphrasing what I've seen you post in the past). I agree, that many others have posted the same, but I recall specific instances where it seems to happen to you most. Never happens to me. If I'm missed, it's a good miss....well except for one time when St. Louis city had whiteout conditions, and I had 2 inches. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 3, 2021 21:56:19 GMT -6
could very well be an illinois thing, being downwind of the urban heat island shredding the weaker systems apart only to have them redevelop 10 miles up the road from you.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2021 22:27:52 GMT -6
The 11th continues to look very interesting on the 00z Icon and gfs.
If we get that one to lay some snow down and then the PV comes to town, things will be fun
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2021 22:28:42 GMT -6
Go figure gfs has nearly a perfect Memphis low next weekend. What could go wrong???
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Post by RyanD on Jan 3, 2021 22:31:15 GMT -6
Lol, probably. I just know that I do complain about being missed by 30 miles but then again that's literally everyone on this forum as well. Yo u are correct, RyanD. You speak of snowstorms just up the road from you when you get barely anything (my words paraphrasing what I've seen you post in the past). I agree, that many others have posted the same, but I recall specific instances where it seems to happen to you most. Never happens to me. If I'm missed, it's a good miss....well except for one time when St. Louis city had whiteout conditions, and I had 2 inches. I remember one storm around 2013 that dumped over a foot between 64/70 while I only saw a few inches. That one was painful. I think that one was a meso band along the arctic front. I've not been posting much lately because we are moving into a new home. Just been busy but I've been following along daily. Glad someone here still thinks about me. Lol |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2021 22:43:08 GMT -6
Go figure gfs has nearly a perfect Memphis low next weekend. What could go wrong??? Yea that GFS is perfect right now ..... how long till it’s north or south ? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2021 22:48:41 GMT -6
The 11th continues to look very interesting on the 00z Icon and gfs. If we get that one to lay some snow down and then the PV comes to town, things will be fun Im trying to keep my expectations low because STL has been a snow hell recently but the pattern from the 11th onward looks absolutely loaded on the ensembles. NAO and AO are going in the cellar and the southern jet looks to be very active. The arctic hammer is also looming in the not so distant future |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 3, 2021 23:46:48 GMT -6
The 11th continues to look very interesting on the 00z Icon and gfs. If we get that one to lay some snow down and then the PV comes to town, things will be fun Im trying to keep my expectations low because STL has been a snow hell recently but the pattern from the 11th onward looks absolutely loaded on the ensembles. NAO and AO are going in the cellar and the southern jet looks to be very active. The arctic hammer is also looming in the not so distant future How is the EPO looking? |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 4, 2021 0:37:51 GMT -6
Go figure gfs has nearly a perfect Memphis low next weekend. What could go wrong??? Yea that GFS is perfect right now ..... how long till it’s north or south ? Or disappears completely. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 4, 2021 1:46:17 GMT -6
So who all starts back to work tomorrow after being off a week and a half for the Holidays? I'll go first....ME! 😫
Had a different holiday this yr as my family did not visit or get visited by any extended family due to covid. For us, the one positive thing to it. We didn't have to schedule or make plans this yr. Which was nice. But sad that we didn't get to see anyone in person. But it's ok, because we have plenty more Christmas holidays to enjoy. On another note we did zoom alot with our family. We even played Among Us with both sides. That was fun and different. 2020 was definitely a sad yr. We lost alot of great people. I'm hoping just like all of us that 2021 is better. But if anything its going to be a rough first half with the continued Covid cases, crazy vaccine rollout problems and any other issues that arise.
As we always say, I'm hoping for some very interesting weather this yr. This Winter has to give at some point. If not then hoping we have some good storms in the Spring. 🤞
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