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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 23, 2020 13:54:04 GMT -6
I can already tell it's going to be a long winter of forecasting headaches...
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Post by mchafin on Nov 23, 2020 14:19:30 GMT -6
I can already tell it's going to be a long winter of forecasting headaches... is ever simple in winter? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 23, 2020 15:05:23 GMT -6
I can already tell it's going to be a long winter of forecasting headaches... is ever simple in winter? Simple? No. Some semblance of consistency in modeling? Maybe. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 23, 2020 15:41:04 GMT -6
Some impressive bright banding by Mexico MO
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Post by mchafin on Nov 23, 2020 15:50:56 GMT -6
is ever simple in winter? Simple? No. Some semblance of consistency in modeling? Maybe. It seems to be getting more difficult over the last several years. Are they tinkering with the models too much? Or are the systems getting more difficult to forecast? |
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BDS
Wishcaster
Columbia, MO
Posts: 202 
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Post by BDS on Nov 23, 2020 15:54:44 GMT -6
Just drove between Kingdom City and Columbia and there is some pretty heavy sleet. Enough to slicken it up a bit and coat the roof and patio set.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 23, 2020 16:02:24 GMT -6
Dang the big red blob is gonna be way north for me lol.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 23, 2020 16:10:03 GMT -6
They issued a Winter Weather Advisory for north of I70 through 9pm up to an inch of sleet and snow. It’s snowing pretty good up in Kirksville on the Truman State cams
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Nov 23, 2020 16:11:37 GMT -6
Reporting our first frozen precip of the season. Sleeting pretty heavy here in Silex. Enough that we have a pretty good coating on the deck.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Nov 23, 2020 16:16:00 GMT -6
Cousins out hunting in norther mo sent me a video of big ole snow flakes and sleet pouring down. Ugh I hate missing it lol
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399
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Post by lunchladyd on Nov 23, 2020 16:22:11 GMT -6
They issued a Winter Weather Advisory for north of I70 through 9pm up to an inch of sleet and snow. It’s snowing pretty good up in Kirksville on the Truman State cams where are you seeing the advisory? |
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Post by landscaper on Nov 23, 2020 16:27:16 GMT -6
It’s actually further north than you , moberly/Kirksville/Hannibal area on NWS site and weather channel app. Snowing pretty heavy in parts of northern Missouri
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 23, 2020 16:44:19 GMT -6
Sleeting in St.Peters
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 23, 2020 17:36:56 GMT -6
Some sleet/melty snowflakes mixed in with the rain in Brighton and 42*.
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snowcat
Junior Forecaster
Bowling Green, MO
Posts: 280
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Post by snowcat on Nov 23, 2020 18:00:18 GMT -6
Sleety snow mix here in Bowling Green. 35*
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Nov 23, 2020 19:50:01 GMT -6
Confirm - I've got sleet hitting my window in St. Peters
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 23, 2020 22:39:13 GMT -6
Sun is quickly becoming active as it races rapidly towards Solar Maximum 5-10% of the sun Earth facing side could be covered in sunspots by late week with M class flares possible with CMEs possible with Geomagnetic storms. 2021 could be a nasty ugly year for heat and drought as 2012 was during the ride up to the last Solar Maximum. Something to monitor. Lots of other factors are eerily similar including what should be coming off a La Nina and a Cold Pacific Coast, warm middle favoring massive ridging over the heartland. Add in a Positive trending NAO/AO and its looking solid. Mid 2020s might be our next chance at some deep winters similar to 2013-2015 time period.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 23, 2020 22:58:52 GMT -6
Back to some weather within the next week...
00z ukmet has our weekend system phasing. That suggests the 00z euro will likely bring our storm back.
About 20% of the 00z gfs ensemble members had more phasing, with 2 members looking quite fun for winter lovers.
I believe there are more twists and turns to come with this system
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 23:12:13 GMT -6
Back to some weather within the next week... 00z ukmet has our weekend system phasing. That suggests the 00z euro will likely bring our storm back. About 20% of the 00z gfs ensemble members had more phasing, with 2 members looking quite fun for winter lovers. I believe there are more twists and turns to come with this system GEM lookin' like she wants to load'r'up again. i.imgur.com/tymPBsE.png |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 23, 2020 23:28:00 GMT -6
buuuut she's south... leaves one hell of a phase over the interior NE tho.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 0:45:28 GMT -6
And an okay track of the low from the euro... just not as amplified
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 24, 2020 0:50:13 GMT -6
Just looking at the upper level winds with the weekend system gives me a headache
There’s a lot going on there and will take some time for models to get a handle on
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 24, 2020 4:27:31 GMT -6
Interesting looking at the old charts from November 1988... and how there are some striking similarities to the pattern at times.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 24, 2020 6:06:58 GMT -6
After looking at the 00z model data I've opted to keep rain in the forecast for Sunday...maybe even ending as flurries Sunday night (although not mentioning that part on air.)
The UK continues hold fast to the idea of the southwest system getting scooped up ahead of the digging northern stream system. Looking back at the analog years seems to favor the more northwest track as well.
So for now at least... I'm going to stay the course with the weekend forecast. Why pull it now and risk having to put it back tomorrow?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 24, 2020 7:46:04 GMT -6
After looking at the 00z model data I've opted to keep rain in the forecast for Sunday...maybe even ending as flurries Sunday night (although not mentioning that part on air.) The UK continues hold fast to the idea of the southwest system getting scooped up ahead of the digging northern stream system. Looking back at the analog years seems to favor the more northwest track as well. So for now at least... I'm going to stay the course with the weekend forecast. Why pull it now and risk having to put it back tomorrow? I think that's the smart play...better to leave POPS in and pull them later opposed to having to re-introduce them late in the game. It's a very fine line between a phase vs. no phase. A difference in 6hrs timing of the N stream wave could make a huge difference in the track. I'm really not sure which way to lean...but I'm thinking it may lift enough to swipe us with flurries or snow showers on Monday and really come together for the upper OHV and interior NE. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 24, 2020 8:13:57 GMT -6
Sun is quickly becoming active as it races rapidly towards Solar Maximum 5-10% of the sun Earth facing side could be covered in sunspots by late week with M class flares possible with CMEs possible with Geomagnetic storms. 2021 could be a nasty ugly year for heat and drought as 2012 was during the ride up to the last Solar Maximum. Something to monitor. Lots of other factors are eerily similar including what should be coming off a La Nina and a Cold Pacific Coast, warm middle favoring massive ridging over the heartland. Add in a Positive trending NAO/AO and its looking solid. Mid 2020s might be our next chance at some deep winters similar to 2013-2015 time period. I think there is a bit of a lag, so im not thinking the earths weather will respond right away. These things always tend to affect eurasia due to its large land mass first, before NA. In fact, if anything, this could work to our favor. Solar activity is in an overall minima as part of a longer solar cycle as well. I do agree, that we have some mild years coming up, thinking next few winters beyond this year, will be responsive somewhat to the solar cycle, but thats IF there is any correlation to begin with and other trumping factors dont get in the way. But i doubt anything abt an increase in solar activity causing a mild upcoming winter. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Nov 24, 2020 8:14:10 GMT -6
Watching RT do his daily severe potential FB live thing and he seems pretty convinced that areas along and east of the river and to the northeast into central IL, tomorrow, are going to see a fairly robust tornado potential as the low approaches from the west. Deserves watching.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 24, 2020 8:35:43 GMT -6
Watching RT do his daily severe potential FB live thing and he seems pretty convinced that areas along and east of the river and to the northeast into central IL, tomorrow, are going to see a fairly robust tornado potential as the low approaches from the west. Deserves watching. It does look like there is a conditional risk tomorrow, but the low-level airmass is very marginal with Tds barely pushing into the 50s. That may be partially offset by steepening mid-level lapse rates, but I'd be surprised if a tornado threat develops. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 10:09:35 GMT -6
wx weenies on AmericanWx bickering back and forth on whether or not they have a big storm on the way...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 24, 2020 10:26:34 GMT -6
Goodness the GFS inches closer to a phase in our wheelhouse, but kicks it too far east. Snow as close as Nashville though as opposed the East coast which is a major shift west.
Unfortunately the Canadian just went Gulf Coastal with the low.
Where's that SE ridge when you need it!
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