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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 24, 2020 10:55:44 GMT -6
Goodness the GFS inches closer to a phase in our wheelhouse, but kicks it too far east. Snow as close as Nashville though as opposed the East coast which is a major shift west. Unfortunately the Canadian just went Gulf Coastal with the low. Where's that SE ridge when you need it! Are you referring to l8 next week? I just am not seeing any potential for snow this weekend is why im asking and late next week fits your description a little better but it isnt totally clear. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 24, 2020 10:57:03 GMT -6
Goodness the GFS inches closer to a phase in our wheelhouse, but kicks it too far east. Snow as close as Nashville though as opposed the East coast which is a major shift west. Unfortunately the Canadian just went Gulf Coastal with the low. Where's that SE ridge when you need it! Are you referring to l8 next week? I just am not seeing any potential for snow this weekend is why im asking and late next week fits your description a little better but it isnt totally clear. Referring to Sunday night/Monday. Phase looks to occur east of us at the moment but it did shift west on the GFS. Unfortunately it also shifted way south and east on the Canadian. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Nov 24, 2020 11:03:46 GMT -6
Gotcha. Im somewhat more interested in next week...nothing big, just looks like a shot at some air snow. I do like how the gfs is evolving trends overall, even if late next week ends up different.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 24, 2020 11:10:40 GMT -6
Gotcha. Im somewhat more interested in next week...nothing big, just looks like a shot at some air snow. I do like how the gfs is evolving trends overall, even if late next week ends up different. I am too...this weekends storm is a highly "thread the needle" setup. Where's Friv? |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 11:10:56 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks solid for Sunday into Monday.
Probably a touch southeast of where we need it and not as amplified, but close.
We are in the game still.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 11:18:50 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks solid for Sunday into Monday. Probably a touch southeast of where we need it and not as amplified, but close. We are in the game still. Are you on Meteocentre? I'm only getting out to 72-h on their charts. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 11:22:30 GMT -6
12z ukmet looks solid for Sunday into Monday. Probably a touch southeast of where we need it and not as amplified, but close. We are in the game still. Are you on Meteocentre? I'm only getting out to 72-h on their charts. It goes to 144 with the “classic” variable. Weather.us has more features and it updates around 11:05. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 11:31:12 GMT -6
Are you on Meteocentre? I'm only getting out to 72-h on their charts. It goes to 144 with the “classic” variable. Weather.us has more features and it updates around 11:05. bet. Looks like our only hope is that 500 mb low closing off over Phoenix. That seems to buy enough time for the northern stream to scoop it up over top of us. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 24, 2020 11:31:40 GMT -6
Ukie looks good with the phase timing  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 11:45:33 GMT -6
Now we wait to see if the EURO wants to rock the boat  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 12:27:28 GMT -6
Euro's close...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 12:29:27 GMT -6
Soooooooooo close. Looks like the ukmet, but stronger |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 24, 2020 12:30:48 GMT -6
Euro needs to phase just a tick sooner for a kaboom
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 24, 2020 12:40:29 GMT -6
Hmm...there may be some potential here given we are 5/6 days out. If we were in the bullseye right now you know damn well it would end up being an Omaha to Des Moines storm!
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 24, 2020 12:49:31 GMT -6
If things time out right, this could turn into one of those classic Great Lake bombs.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 13:12:28 GMT -6
If things time out right, this could turn into one of those classic Great Lake bombs. Yes, please! Amazingly, the euro tries to do a repeater later next week |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 24, 2020 13:16:59 GMT -6
Just checked out the Kuchera snow map from the euro. You have to be pretty happy with that run WSC lol
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 13:31:43 GMT -6
Just checked out the Kuchera snow map from the euro. You have to be pretty happy with that run WSC lol Hoping to see good ensemble support when they update. I think STL-Chicago have a decent chance here. |
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Post by landscaper on Nov 24, 2020 13:52:30 GMT -6
I would be happy with a 1-2” snow!
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 14:44:44 GMT -6
FWIW... the EPS takes a New Orleans to Atlanta track of the SFC reflection... not a great look. although if you extrapolate what little upper air data is available on pivotal, it doesn't look totally hopeless. Looks to indicate a phase of the 500mb streams a bit to our south.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 15:28:51 GMT -6
FWIW... the EPS takes a New Orleans to Atlanta track of the SFC reflection... not a great look. although if you extrapolate what little upper air data is available on pivotal, it doesn't look totally hopeless. Looks to indicate a phase of the 500mb streams a bit to our south. Definitely a strong handful of individual ensemble members that we would all take in a heartbeat. Tricky system for sure. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 24, 2020 16:13:02 GMT -6
Major shift north on the 18z gfs.
Just misses the region.
Good run, nearly a bomb cyclone
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Post by landscaper on Nov 24, 2020 16:21:46 GMT -6
We always need something extra here, this time it’s a 12 hour quicker phase of the northern and southern streams. We need the ole bomb seeping the pulls the storm north and slows it down as it’s deeping
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 24, 2020 16:22:09 GMT -6
Major shift north on the 18z gfs. Just misses the region. Good run, nearly a bomb cyclone I definitely think we have a storm of interest |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 24, 2020 16:40:16 GMT -6
Major shift north on the 18z gfs. Just misses the region. Good run, nearly a bomb cyclone I definitely think we have a storm of interest I need 00z to come in a little closer. I'm teetering the fence about this one still. |
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Post by landscaper on Nov 24, 2020 16:48:45 GMT -6
I definitely agree we need to continue to see a shift north west , unfortunately our luck we usually watch storms go by to our north west and south east before we cash in on some. It’s crazy to see the models trend away from the well above normal start to December a lot of forecast were showing even a week ago. I follow BAM weather and the we’re riding the December blow torch train even a few days ago. They are quickly changing their tune.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 24, 2020 18:57:11 GMT -6
I'd temper expectations at this point...I just don't see how that is going to track far enough N and W for us with the N stream crashing in like that. There's just not enough room, even if it does phase. Definitely looking like an OHV/GL storm. I do think we could get some flurry or SNSH activity with the upper low digging in...but accumulating deformation snowfall is highly unlikely here, IMO.
Then again, models shifted like 500mi in a couple runs...so who knows, lol.
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 24, 2020 19:06:39 GMT -6
The ridging over the Great Basin from run to run is interesting- allows it to dig further west
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 24, 2020 19:38:51 GMT -6
The ridging over the Great Basin from run to run is interesting- allows it to dig further west Definitely a bit further west trend...but still quite a bit too far east for our wheelhouse. |
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 24, 2020 19:55:17 GMT -6
It’s not so much that it’s further west- it’s more amplified... give a little more nudge and it may be enough
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