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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 27, 2020 1:07:26 GMT -6
Yeah, well lmao at the euro. Rainy in st louis with some flakes late next week, while west and sw mo get 1-2 ft of blizzard conditions.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Nov 27, 2020 3:39:40 GMT -6
06z NAM = interesting
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Post by Snowman99 on Nov 27, 2020 4:32:02 GMT -6
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 27, 2020 8:18:32 GMT -6
Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I'm very thankful for Chris and everyone on this weather blog. I've been lurking around here since the beginning. I don't post much but this is definitely one of my hobbies.
The 06zNam definitely gets my attention.... is there much hope in it??
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Post by landscaper on Nov 27, 2020 8:26:21 GMT -6
Probably not, it’s probably pulling the good ole 72 hour false hope NAM tricks. The one where it shows a better track for us , totally different than every other models. This usually happens for 4-5 model runs only to cave at the 24-36 hour out mark to all the other models.
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Post by snowday_lover on Nov 27, 2020 8:27:55 GMT -6
Yeah, that's what I thought. Darn. Lol
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Post by ajd446 on Nov 27, 2020 8:40:03 GMT -6
The nam is back to the east. Never trust nam ever.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 27, 2020 8:56:05 GMT -6
This storm may still track close enough to be a watcher...if the primary vort max doesn't take that slight SE jog along the Red River Valley, it may phase earlier and track far enough N/W to sling some moisture our way in the cold air, favoring the IL counties. But I have a hard time conceptualizing that with the digging, positively tilted wave crashing in over the top...I think that will probably favor a further SE track. We still need an earlier phase and a negative tilt to the overall storm structure, and that's probably a stretch. Some of of the model runs have hinted at it, most have not.
That storm towards next weekend is interesting as well...definitely not a quiet pattern!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 27, 2020 9:09:48 GMT -6
I still think we will see some flurry or SNSH activity with the cold core digging in on Monday afternoon. Models don't usually pick up on that well until about 48hrs out. Surface-850mb lapse rates approach 10*C/km in the moist, cyclonic low-level flow.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 27, 2020 9:40:45 GMT -6
I still think we will see some flurry or SNSH activity with the cold core digging in on Monday afternoon. Models don't usually pick up on that well until about 48hrs out. Surface-850mb lapse rates approach 10*C/km in the moist, cyclonic low-level flow. Only thing that makes me pause on snow shower activity is the dry air at the surface. That might eat away at any flakes, atleast initially |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 27, 2020 10:21:17 GMT -6
I still think we will see some flurry or SNSH activity with the cold core digging in on Monday afternoon. Models don't usually pick up on that well until about 48hrs out. Surface-850mb lapse rates approach 10*C/km in the moist, cyclonic low-level flow. Only thing that makes me pause on snow shower activity is the dry air at the surface. That might eat away at any flakes, atleast initially 1000-850mb average RH is around 75%...that's pretty supportive, IMO. But dry air advection near the surface could offset it a bit...and the cyclonic curvature isn't that impressive on some runs. A further W track of the SLP would help out...or enhanced moisture off Michigan. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 27, 2020 10:24:23 GMT -6
The potential system later next week sure is an interesting setup  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 10:27:12 GMT -6
The potential system later next week sure is an interesting setup Yes! Though, I'm concerned about cold air supply especially if your wanting snow |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 27, 2020 10:36:18 GMT -6
I’d say Wed/Thurs has some potential. Most models showing another lobe of arctic air coming into it. Watch this one cut to our NW lol.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 27, 2020 10:38:53 GMT -6
If it becomes that cut off and wrapped up, we'd have to be under the cold core for snowfall.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 11:17:36 GMT -6
If it becomes that cut off and wrapped up, we'd have to be under the cold core for snowfall. So true |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 11:22:19 GMT -6
I’d say Wed/Thurs has some potential. Most models showing another lobe of arctic air coming into it. Watch this one cut to our NW lol. If not, I think the pattern stays active for us to see some snow before mid Dec. Some were already writing off the first 15 days of Dec for winter weather 1-2 weeks ago. I think the pattern looks decent for our Dec standards at least. Many years we open Dec with 50+ degree temps. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 27, 2020 11:38:49 GMT -6
I think the pattern continues to look great. No extremes, but a blocky flow developing with plenty of energy loading and cold air lurking.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 27, 2020 11:43:27 GMT -6
I think the pattern continues to look great. No extremes, but a blocky flow developing with plenty of energy loading and cold air lurking. Extreme cold is bad anyway. Makes it too dry. Marginal temps is kinda where the action is. It works both ways of course. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 27, 2020 11:57:05 GMT -6
Models are looking pretty cold towards D10 and beyond...I wouldn't be surprised to see a clipper or two around then, or perhaps a hybrid/CO low type system. The S stream looks to shut down for a while...but the upstream ridge looks like it should allow some energy to top the crest and dig across the lower 48. If we can get the -EPO cranking, things should get fun.
Let's get the first couple storms out of the way before giving that too much thought though.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 27, 2020 12:27:12 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 12:57:01 GMT -6
The 12z GEM had CAA snow on the backside of the wound up system for Fri-Sat next week. Yes the GEM typically has a cold bias, but that's the cold air mass we need in order for it to change to snow.
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Post by landscaper on Nov 27, 2020 13:18:30 GMT -6
Euro and Ukmet are now way south with the late week system, both took a 300 mile jump south
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 27, 2020 14:32:27 GMT -6
18z NAM is close to a burst of snow Sunday night before the system pulls away.
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 21:38:14 GMT -6
What's going on with the 00z NAM run?
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 27, 2020 21:51:52 GMT -6
What's going on with the 00z NAM run? I'm getting it fine on COD... something wrong with what it's printing out... or? |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 27, 2020 21:53:42 GMT -6
Seems like there's trend towards the upper low becoming a little more progressive, drastically dropping snow totals between IND and CLE. That cutoff and stall was gonna be key in getting those big amounts-- temperatures certainly were never going to help as they had a marginal look through the entire snow event,
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 22:05:20 GMT -6
What's going on with the 00z NAM run? I'm getting it fine on COD... something wrong with what it's printing out... or? Tropical Tibits hasn't uploaded yet. Good to know that your getting it on College of DuPage. Otherwise, thanks for your analysis with this run |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 27, 2020 22:16:06 GMT -6
The midweek system is disappearing. Gonna be a long winter...
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Post by landscaper on Nov 27, 2020 22:21:33 GMT -6
She gone ... not much on the way for the next two weeks
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