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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 27, 2020 22:59:25 GMT -6
00z GEM holds course and looks decent late week, but borderline temps.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 28, 2020 0:31:18 GMT -6
EURO hints there could be a Sunday night surprise south and east of STL. Nice spread of deformation precip northward. Suggest a mix possible.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 28, 2020 0:31:33 GMT -6
It's also looking chunky with the midweek storm too.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 28, 2020 0:34:21 GMT -6
I will say this, this pattern is... wonky. It's definitely way too early to be calling anything off next week. There's so much sloshing around in the upper-levels with these big, elliptical vortices that all the models are going to be having fits until 48-72 hours up to the event. Still need to get through Sunday night too. this alone should say enough i.imgur.com/kQMZQ7z.png |
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Post by mchafin on Nov 28, 2020 0:35:14 GMT -6
It's also looking chunky with the midweek storm too. All sorts of new adjectives this winter season. Chunky? |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 28, 2020 0:37:51 GMT -6
It's also looking chunky with the midweek storm too. All sorts of new adjectives this winter season. Chunky? Us millennials have a different way of describing things. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 28, 2020 0:45:57 GMT -6
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Post by cozpregon on Nov 28, 2020 2:02:42 GMT -6
Nice green fireball to the north about 130
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2020 6:43:36 GMT -6
Well, we can certainly lock that one in, lol! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 28, 2020 10:30:57 GMT -6
I definitely wouldn't write off the system next week. Euro ensembles are still chunky with snow totals over W/SW MO and the GEFS has some beefy runs in there as well
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2020 10:47:52 GMT -6
I definitely wouldn't write off the system next week. Euro ensembles are still chunky with snow totals over W/SW MO and the GEFS has some beefy runs in there as well 00z euro ensembles were interesting, but the 12z gefs is pretty bleak |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 28, 2020 10:52:12 GMT -6
I definitely wouldn't write off the system next week. Euro ensembles are still chunky with snow totals over W/SW MO and the GEFS has some beefy runs in there as well 00z euro ensembles were interesting, but the 12z gefs is pretty bleak There’s still a handful of interesting runs in there. All I’m looking for at this stage of the game |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2020 11:01:36 GMT -6
Oklahoma and Kansas could have some fun next week. Ironically I'll be heading to OKC in order to see some family members the 3rd-7th, so if I can't get snow here, maybe I'll get it down there? Icon, GEM, and especially the Euro really hitting that area hard. For fun the Euro has over a foot of snow in OKC alone with more northeast. Where the family is they could see 14" if the Euro's right... Geez. At least it waits until we get there.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2020 11:03:15 GMT -6
Things still look interesting for us Mid month into the Holidays with the PV distortion event and resulting pattern shift. Should yield a colder perhaps more promising pattern. All huge ifs though at this stage...
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2020 11:14:16 GMT -6
00z euro ensembles were interesting, but the 12z gefs is pretty bleak There’s still a handful of interesting runs in there. All I’m looking for at this stage of the game 12z ukmet is really interesting |
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Post by landscaper on Nov 28, 2020 11:22:59 GMT -6
What is the Ukmet showing
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2020 11:23:04 GMT -6
Winter makes a strong appearance around the 10th on the latest gfs run.
Matches well with the potential reflective PV event.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Nov 28, 2020 11:24:48 GMT -6
What is the Ukmet showing Substantial snow in southwestern Missouri and lots of moisture with borderline temps across the metro |
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Post by jeepers on Nov 28, 2020 11:27:17 GMT -6
Ok, we need a new version of a CC tshirt. Good’un. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 28, 2020 15:36:39 GMT -6
Looks like there will almost certainly be snowflakes flying out of the sky in STL Monday morning. NAM Nest sets up a beautiful river-enhanced band along the "nose" of Illinois border straight into the metro... At least that what it looks like it's doing. Sfc gusts are nearly parallel, up to 25-30 mph.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2020 15:44:31 GMT -6
Looks like there will almost certainly be snowflakes flying out of the sky in STL Monday morning. NAM Nest sets up a beautiful river-enhanced band along the "nose" of Illinois border straight into the metro... At least that what it looks like it's doing. Sfc gusts are nearly parallel, up to 25-30 mph. It looks like a nearly ideal setup for river effect. Good call, BDGWX. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Nov 28, 2020 17:35:15 GMT -6
There's some interesting trends in the latest models WRT to the storm developing currently. They are starting to pick up on a band of mid-level frontogenesis that develops roughly along and S of 44/70 tomorrow evening into Monday AM as the N stream wave digs in and attempts to phase with the ejecting upper low across the region. This makes sense synoptically and it could set up a somewhat transient mesoscale band if there's enough forcing. Might be enough to whiten the ground if it comes down hard enough...it's worth watching.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Nov 28, 2020 17:43:29 GMT -6
I’ve been noticing that to BRTN. 21z RAP is awfully close to a burst of heavy wet snow tomorrow night across parts of the area
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 28, 2020 19:01:13 GMT -6
18z ICON looks good for next week.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Nov 28, 2020 20:08:42 GMT -6
18z ICON looks good for next week. Is that thing bombs out and cuts off to our west I may be sick. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Nov 28, 2020 21:36:18 GMT -6
00z HRRR is picking up on that frontogenesis band Btrn is talking about tomorrow night up I-44 in the metro. But, unfortunately the HRRR it's awfully warm upper 30s (too warm I think) when the most of the precip comes through.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2020 22:48:44 GMT -6
18z ICON looks good for next week. Icon, Euro, UKMET seem to be the only models really jazzed up about this system, the CMC/GEM, and GFS are moisture starved. A farther west setup would give us more chance for the system to wound up and get some moisture, but also decreases odds for snow at least until the upper level system passes which would yield scattered to numerous showers/snow showers/flurries/drizzly type stuff once it passes through and we get on the backside of cyclonic flow. Models probably won't have a clue what to do with this until like a day or 2 out. It's a very strange setup. I do believe it will set up farther west than the system tomorrow/Monday but how much and how much moisture it can pick up along with overall system strength remain critical unknowns muddying the forecast. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Nov 28, 2020 22:57:33 GMT -6
GFS seems intent of hitting us with something decent around the 12-15th of December so if nothing else we have that to salivate over.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 28, 2020 23:52:42 GMT -6
looks like the UKMET also lost the midweek storm.
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Post by unclesam6 on Nov 29, 2020 0:33:29 GMT -6
euro goes poof too.
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