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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2020 18:32:13 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2020 18:41:13 GMT -6
Well my updated NWS forecast has around 2" of snow Wednesday night. Let's see what that looks like in 3 days. lol
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Post by weatherj on Dec 27, 2020 18:44:10 GMT -6
Someone is in for an ice storm I bet. If the solutions end up further east I bet it's the south/east cwa.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2020 18:53:46 GMT -6
You should see the weather channel forecast on my phone for wentzville, it shows like 1-3”/5-8”/1”/ 1” if it know where they get their forecast, what model it’s based on.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2020 18:54:58 GMT -6
Models are trending favorably towards a significant winter storm across the region from what I'm seeing with today's data. The pattern is nearly textbook, with the lead wave in the N branch getting out ahead which allows the boundary to pass through and get the cold air in place. And models have trended towards the southern stream shortwave/mid-level low taking on a favorable negative tilt as it lifts across the region which develops a substantial wave along the boundary. I think it's fairly unlikely that it tracks too far West, with the main shortwave digging through North Old Mexico before ejecting NE...that's a lot of latitude to gain to cut NW or over us...but I guess it's still possible.
The biggest negating factor now is the strength of the warm conveyor/WAA that models show, which would wrap in warm air aloft and set up a zone of nasty icing across parts of the region, with the heavy snow band setting up on the NW fringe. This could end up being a major winter storm across the region.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 18:58:01 GMT -6
18z GEFS snowfall breakdown by member. Some diet sprite runs in there  |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2020 19:07:53 GMT -6
What’s the mean on that snow?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 19:09:59 GMT -6
What’s the mean on that snow? It's the bar at the bottom |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2020 19:10:31 GMT -6
Looks like 4-5" with another inch or so with the trailing wave on Friday PM/Saturday AM.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 19:11:11 GMT -6
18z EPS took a jog west from the 12z. Many of the lows either cut over us or to our west
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Post by mchafin on Dec 27, 2020 19:14:52 GMT -6
18z GEFS snowfall breakdown by member. Some diet sprite runs in there Hey - where does one get that chart? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 19:18:07 GMT -6
18z GEFS snowfall breakdown by member. Some diet sprite runs in there Hey - where does one get that chart? Weathermodels.com city charts
$10 a month
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Post by mchafin on Dec 27, 2020 19:26:49 GMT -6
Hey - where does one get that chart? Weathermodels.com city charts
$10 a month
Looks like it’s 14.99/mth now. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 27, 2020 20:57:41 GMT -6
00z NAM further south with the frozen precip. Maybe not as robust. All and all not a bad track for Metro STL still. Let's hope the GFS follows suite.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2020 21:11:23 GMT -6
NAM looks loaded at the end of it's run, with the S stream shortwave taking a negative tilt as it approaches the Arklatex and the surface boundary pushing through MEM with the SLP winding up over the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Hard to think the low would track too far West given that setup...
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 27, 2020 21:16:11 GMT -6
It's so close. Right now, if I had to plan, I would have alot of headache meds on hand and go into this event with the idea of a significant icing event somewhere near St. Louis, impacting NYE celebrations. I started to put into my comments references and and descriptive lines on where the rain/ice/snow demarcation would be, but I think that would be irresponsible, and I wouldn't blame Chris if he banned me for that. So I'll hold my thoughts to myself. I see why the idea of a due north path is on the table per the global models, and it looks like, if I'm reading everything correctly, that thing has the potential to become vertically stacked very near the mid MS valley. It's going to be a bad night all around and we are looking at a significant precipitation event. One thing about NWS forecasts, is they don't get into details at this long of a lead - a rain and snow forecast at this lead, rarely exhibits the icing potential. All the mets are going to work hard this week. Going forecasts look good because they keep all the options on the table, and there's an implied threat of a significant icing. I have a bias when it comes to the situations like being on the line, to situations where models don't agree, even DAMs and WAMs. It's too early, and irresponsible, to factor in those biases. I can say, though, I'm genuinely concerned at this point.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 21:18:43 GMT -6
It might be in a narrow band, but some areas might see a high impact snow/ice event from the post frontal precipitation alone. Definitely a lot to keep an eye on with this setup
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2020 21:25:51 GMT -6
It might be in a narrow band, but some areas might see a high impact snow/ice event from the post frontal precipitation alone. Definitely a lot to keep an eye on with this setup Models definitely hint at substantial frontogenetically driven precip in the cold sector prior to the deformation potential. The push of cold air near the surface is considerably stronger with the latest runs. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 21:26:19 GMT -6
Well the ICON still wants to take the low into SE Oklahoma so there's that
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2020 21:27:58 GMT -6
Yes that’s not a good sign, unfortunately there is just no blocking to the north .
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2020 21:34:07 GMT -6
Icon is terrible, the low is west of St. Louis. We are singing I’m the rain. Hopefully they will shift back , it will be interesting to see if the gem caves west tonight . Still lots of time
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 27, 2020 21:51:53 GMT -6
dadgumit!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 22:01:38 GMT -6
GFS looks to be coming in east. Could be an interesting run
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 27, 2020 22:03:58 GMT -6
GFS looks to be coming in east. Could be an interesting run It’s nice for the western counties |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 27, 2020 22:04:30 GMT -6
GFS looks to be coming in east. Could be an interesting run Yessir! An improvement slightly. We need it a little further east, but the low doesn't track over mid MO so that's a continued win in IMO |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2020 22:06:16 GMT -6
About a 40 mile improvement...need that again.
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Post by bororug on Dec 27, 2020 22:06:23 GMT -6
GFS looks to be coming in east. Could be an interesting run Definitely a step in the right direction! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 22:07:13 GMT -6
Well it keeps the low east of the metro. Still switches the immediate metro over the rain after a period of icing
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2020 22:07:25 GMT -6
Yep, 1-2 more of those and we will be in good shape
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 27, 2020 22:07:27 GMT -6
Gotta love the look of the 12z GEM ensemble mean...    Dude that looks beautiful |
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