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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 27, 2020 22:16:09 GMT -6
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 27, 2020 22:16:15 GMT -6
00z Para Gfs has a nice low track, but I guess the mid levels are off because the ice/snow is still in mid Missouri
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 27, 2020 22:19:46 GMT -6
Just enough lift and moisture on the 00z GFS to produce some bonus snow on Sat after the main second wave departs to the east!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 22:20:29 GMT -6
00z Para Gfs has a nice low track, but I guess the mid levels are off because the ice/snow is still in mid Missouri 500 vort track looks good, goes right through Cape G
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 22:22:36 GMT -6
That's a pretty big shift east from 12z to 00z on the GFSv16
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 27, 2020 22:23:37 GMT -6
00z Para Gfs has a nice low track, but I guess the mid levels are off because the ice/snow is still in mid Missouri 500 vort track looks good, goes right through Cape G
Given the trough orientation we will want that further SE for sure |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 27, 2020 22:32:29 GMT -6
Pretty amazing band will setup across northern Missouri/southern Iowa Tuesday afternoon.
Wow
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 27, 2020 22:35:11 GMT -6
00z gfs ensemble mean is around 4-6 inches from the southwestern to northeastern metro.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2020 22:35:51 GMT -6
Gem is still good actually further south and east and weaker than the other models. Looks good on the black and white charts, at least it didn’t jump way north west
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 27, 2020 22:36:59 GMT -6
00z ggem is going to be nice...
Edit: it’s a significant storm from 70 south.
The low weakens pretty quickly.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2020 22:42:21 GMT -6
It’s a nice track just weak , never really gets going
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 22:52:38 GMT -6
Looks like the GEM pulses the precep field back up over the area Saturday from the trailing energy
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 23:00:18 GMT -6
Hard to tell on the basic charts out right now but the Ukmet looks amped up
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2020 23:06:03 GMT -6
Like west of us amped up ? Where are you seeing it?
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 27, 2020 23:18:29 GMT -6
Comparing the 18Z and 0Z GEFS...in terms of the mean positioning of the 500mb, 850mb and surface features I'd say it is a mixed outcome with maybe an ever so slight tip toward being worse overall. In terms of the snow depth product it appears to be noticeably worse. There is slightly less QPF in our area as well. These aren't large changes though and the uncertainty envelop still includes a significant winter event in our area so we still can't write this one off just yet nor would we think of doing so with just one model and at this range anyway.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 27, 2020 23:25:47 GMT -6
00z ggem is going to be nice... Edit: it’s a significant storm from 70 south. The low weakens pretty quickly. I'd take that 00z GEM run any day over having the surface low pressure scoot due north into mid MO with a amped up solution. Less rain, though less ice and snow, but less headaches with the rain/ice/snow line potentially screwing parts of the metro by 15 mi, etc! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2020 23:30:35 GMT -6
Like west of us amped up ? Where are you seeing it? The surface low goes from Texarkana to Central IL to Detroit
To west for us
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 27, 2020 23:34:33 GMT -6
UKMET now shows two distinct upper level lows like what GFS and ECMWF have been showing. Although the window is closing for big surprises in model land I do wonder what kinds of morphology we might see in later runs regarding these two lows.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 0:21:45 GMT -6
Not surprisingly the euro is amped up and west. Hard to feel confident in any one solution at this point.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 28, 2020 0:26:43 GMT -6
Not surprisingly the euro is amped up and west. Hard to feel confident in any one solution at this point. Dont want to see that out of the EURO AT THIS POINT. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 0:29:13 GMT -6
No not at all I’m not sure what will happen
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 28, 2020 0:57:14 GMT -6
Not surprisingly the euro is amped up and west. Hard to feel confident in any one solution at this point. Dont want to see that out of the EURO AT THIS POINT. Ya but hasn't the EURO been playing catchup this yr! It's not performed well from what I can recall. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 28, 2020 2:57:27 GMT -6
Good morning...
My big takeaway from the overnight data pertains to a rule of thumb I like to use...
Systems that dig into Mexico have a tough time bringing snow to STL. They love to grab warm air and bring it along with them.
The upper lows on all the major models are digging waaaaay south before pivoting and racing northeast. I suspect the GFS/EURO may be too amplified... and the GEM is probably too flat and cold.
Using a general compromise between the three yields spotty showers (possibly a brief mix at onset..must mostly spotty rain showers) followed by a cold rain Wednesday that could end briefly as snow. Thursday looks largely dry until an icy mix overspreads the regions Thursday night. That icy mix transitions more to a rain/snow potential for Friday depending on the exact track of the upper low...with light snow or flurries possible Friday night into early Saturday.
Somewhere in our audience... significant amounts of either ice or snow is likely to fall with the system...making this a potentially moderate to high impact event for Thursday night into Friday...especially areas west/northwest of of the immediate metro.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 28, 2020 3:22:08 GMT -6
Good morning... My big takeaway from the overnight data pertains to a rule of thumb I like to use... Systems that dig into Mexico have a tough time bringing snow to STL. They love to grab warm air and bring it along with them. The upper lows on all the major models are digging waaaaay south before pivoting and racing northeast. I suspect the GFS/EURO may be too amplified... and the GEM is probably too flat and cold. Using a general compromise between the three yields spotty showers (possibly a brief mix at onset..must mostly spotty rain showers) followed by a cold rain Wednesday that could end briefly as snow. Thursday looks largely dry until an icy mix overspreads the regions Thursday night. That icy mix transitions more to a rain/snow potential for Friday depending on the exact track of the upper low...with light snow or flurries possible Friday night into early Saturday. Somewhere in our audience... significant amounts of either ice or snow is likely to fall with the system...making this a potentially moderate to high impact event for Thursday night into Friday...especially areas west/northwest of of the immediate metro. Thanks for your input Chris. Our leader has spoken. 🤗 |
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Post by cnagel3 - Festus on Dec 28, 2020 5:28:24 GMT -6
Game over
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 28, 2020 5:59:03 GMT -6
You should see the weather channel forecast on my phone for wentzville, it shows like 1-3”/5-8”/1”/ 1” if it know where they get their forecast, what model it’s based on. And those forecasted numbers went POOF!! 😂😂 |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2020 7:05:21 GMT -6
This thing might not produce much meaningful winter weather anywhere at this rate. Wow.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2020 7:20:05 GMT -6
L
O
L
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 28, 2020 7:45:05 GMT -6
Thanks for your technical analysis. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2020 7:52:15 GMT -6
One concerning trend with models is how far they are digging the energy into MX and how long it takes to eject out...that may allow the N stream wave to get too far out ahead and leave room for it to sneak further W. This also scrubs out the cold air supply a bit.
There's still plenty for models to figure out with this one. The potential fujiwara interaction may also throw a wrench into the gears.
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